An expert on not being an expert: Politics / Sports / Business / Design. I geek out about weird things.
California, USA
Joined April 2010
- Tweets9.4K
- Following293
- Followers567
- Likes237
Pinned Tweet
My childhood hero. A champion who redefined work ethic. But more importantly a husband and a father. Rest In Power, Mamba. ❤️🐍
Sean Berlin retweeted
This lady crashed the housing pipeline for San Francisco a decade ago and now she’s going to crash like anything that requires home or auto insurance in the entire state of California.
The one disaster of the evening
According to early results, former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim holds a lead over state Sen. Ben Allen in the race for California insurance commissioner. sfstandard.com/2026/11/03/el…
Sean Berlin retweeted
'In 1860, an enslaved man named Sheppard Peek was listed among the possessions of William Peek. His value was placed at $1400.
More than a century and a half later, Sheppard’s great-great-granddaughter, Keisha Lance Bottoms, was elected governor of GA' ajc.com/politics/2026/11/kei…
The logic here is that the Jets have accumulated so many picks that they need to start using them instead of accumulating more - but I’d argue that if you trust your ability to scout and select talent, more picks would be useful than Wilson himself.
More about there being “no way” the Jets trade WR Garrett Wilson before the Tuesday Nov. 10 trade deadline:
espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/5033…
These people are being sent to their death. My god man
Breaking News: The Trump administration has detained dozens of Afghan immigrants in Louisiana — including relatives of those who helped the U.S. military — and plans to deport them to Afghanistan, according to U.S. officials. nyti.ms/4jPVvrw
Elon Musk has repeatedly demonstrated that he is by far and large the greediest man on the planet. Doesn’t donate any money outside of politics and decides to try and fuck over anyone he can
This is an astoundingly devastating story.
Here is a gift link for the whole story. Absolutely horrific.
All those dead for Musk to make more money:
theatlantic.com/national-sec…
Sean Berlin retweeted
It is very hard to share an opinion politically-neutral in thought after the last 8+ years, but good lord, whether you're a democrat or a republican, having the leader of the USA talk like this to someone, & at the camera knowing it'll be broadcast nationally is so effing gross.
Sean Berlin retweeted
This is very well done (you need to click the links)
nationalreview.com/corner/a-…
The latest Truth Social post from the president of the United States.
ALT Screenshot of a very long Truth Social post by Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump), shrunk into a thin strip in the center of a gray card. The text reads: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump Let’s talk about this COMPLETE AND TOTAL LOSER, Bill Maher. He’s got a Low Rated Show on equally Low Rated HBO, which was once, long ago, a Network of Quality and Excitement — But that’s all gone. It’s not “HOT” anymore! Maher’s friend and business associate, Chuck LaBella, was also a friend of mine, worked on The Top Hit Show, The Apprentice, as a “gofer” and, because of the success of that show, Number One and Top Rated on many weeks, with the Finale’ being among the Top Shows of the Year, he was automatically and quickly brought up through the Ranks of NBC, along with everyone else associated with that Historic “Happening.” The Success of the Apprentice was so great that everyone partook — It built many careers, and that is a wonderful thing. (continues)
This policy is lighting a bag of shit on fire and putting it on your own porch
this California wealth tax thing is just incredible.
so in October 2025, a California healthcare union proposed a "one time" 5% tax on any billionaire's wealth. the ballot measure will be voted on next month. In early December 2025, California announced that it would be a retroactive tax if passed, applying to anyone with CA residency as of Jan 1, 2026. The objective is to pay for Medi-Cal, California's incredibly dysfunctional healthcare system. (which also functions as a glorified welfare apparatus, but that's a discussion for another time).
polls reveal that the CA electorate is split around 50/50 on the tax, but prediction markets only give Prop 40 a ~23% chance of passing (there are competing measures on the ballet that would nullify it).
there are 200 billionaires in CA, worth collectively somewhere between $2.3 and $2.6 trillion. 5% of that is around $100b, accounting for a small amount of attrition. proponents of the tax forecasted a significant windfall, assuming only a 10% departure rate.
supporters thought they were being clever with the retroactive concept. no billionares would leave CA in the few short months between the tax being proposed and the residency cutoff date, without the tax even having passed yet, right?
well as it turns out, they did.
a new paper [1] from two academics at Stanford called "The Net Present Value of the California Billionaire Tax Act", argues that not only did more billionaires leave due to the proposed tax than its proponents expected, but that the value of the tax, if it does pass, is actually negative.
proponents of the tax only assumed 10% avoidance, that is, only 10% of the taxable base of targeted billionaires would leave CA within the very short Oct-Dec 2025 window. Jaros and Rauh, the Stanford academics, find that a lower bound of 28.6% of the taxable base managed to leave.
just based on known departures, those departures total $577b in net worth, or $28.8b in potential tax lost. this of course does not capture everyone (many left without announcing their departure), so the authors normalize to departure rates estimated from other wealth tax events, and apply other discounts for litigation, arriving arrive at a figure of only $28-$36b in forecasted tax revenues.
but this isn't all! all of the income taxes paid by the departed billionaires are also forsaken. the authors estimate that CA billionaires pay $3.3- 5.8b in annual income taxes. they assume a midpoint of $2b lost in annual collections from departed billionaires. the net present value of that lost income stream is -$68.9 billion.
so when you add it all up you get:
+ $30b one-time tax windfall (estimated)
- $69b in present value of lost future income taxes
= - 38.9b overall net present value of the tax
of course, this analysis is highly estimate driven. the authors simulate the parameters 100k times and find a negative NPV of the implemented tax 85 percent of the time.
and if the tax doesn't pass, which it's not looking like it will, California still ended up losing at least $577b in departed net worth, and they have permanently poisoned the well with entrepreneurs who will now worry about future wealth taxes.
[1]: nber.org/system/files/workin…
Sean Berlin retweeted
What kind of fuck ass country has multi generational school shooting survivor families
Mom who survived school shooting coaches son through Oregon attack: 'Please be as quiet as possible' trib.al/0dxoVCa
Sean Berlin retweeted
This is one of the most cowardly, shameful acts in modern American history.
But it's only possible because Congress, for decades, has been giving up their constitutional authority to let the President do whatever he wants.
STOP GIVING THE EXECUTIVE POWERS
BREAKING: President Trump puts new Russia sanctions passed by Congress on hold, saying a waiver is in the U.S. national interest. apnews.com/article/russia-sa…
