Conflict Monitor | Horn of Africa Tracker

Trøllheim
Joined March 2020
🇪🇹 Ethiopia’s industrial transformation is gaining momentum! From 2021–2025, the “Made in Ethiopia” initiative revived 1,115 factories, created 1.58 million jobs, and boosted import-substitution production to $5.96 billion. The next phase: expand exports, build new industrial capacity, and modernize services powering a more competitive, self-reliant Ethiopian economy. 🇪🇹📈
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🚨 BREAKING: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has labeled the TPLF as separatist and characterized its actions as terrorism.
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🚨ENDF displayed weapons it captured from the TPLF to foreign military attachés. The weapons were reportedly smuggled from Eritrea to the TPLF.
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🚨 NEW: Reports indicate that Eritrean regime forces attempted to destroy a bridge linking Ethiopia and Eritrea near Rama, reportedly firing multiple artillery shells at it following the town’s capture by federal forces.
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🚨 ENDF has reportedly captured more TPLF arms and military equipment.
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Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and U.S Secretary of State Marco Rubio had phone conversation.
I held a very fruitful telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State @marcorubio on key bilateral, regional and multilateral issues of mutual interest. Our discussion is proof to the commitment of both countries in translating the enduring relationship between Ethiopia and the United States into a more strategic and practical partnership. I welcome the assurance of continued U.S. support for Ethiopia and our shared commitment to advancing bilateral cooperation and addressing regional and multilateral priorities.
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🇸🇩🇪🇹 Sudan’s Foreign Minister and Minister of international cooperation Mohieddin Salem says Sudan is open to dialogue with Ethiopia.
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🚨 Isaias Miscalculation and Invasion Last week, Eritrean forces drove deep into Ethiopian territory, reaching the Idaga Hamus area. It may turn out to be one of the costliest decisions of Isaias Afwerki’s rule. Mekelle had fallen to ENDF & TPF forces, and the forces were shifting north toward Wukro. Asmara found itself facing a situation moving faster than anyone had planned for. Sending troops across the border may have been meant to build a defensive buffer, to shape the fighting, or to keep the war from reaching Eritrea’s own doorstep. Why Asmara moved The logic behind Eritrea’s advance may have been to establish a new buffer zone following the collapse of the Raya–Sekota front. With that front no longer providing the same strategic depth or acting as a barrier to further military movements, Eritrean regime may have calculated that pushing southward into Ethiopian territory was necessary to create an alternative perimeter. By pushing deep into Ethiopia, Isaias could create a buffer zone, buying time for exhausted, scattered TPLF forces to regroup and strike south again. His calculation, through the Tsimdo alliance, seems to have been that Addis Ababa was too stretched to respond. Isaias had likely judged it very unlikely that federal forces could reach the Eritrean border within two weeks. Isaias also knows something he will never say aloud. If Ethiopian forces moved the same distance from Zalambessa into Eritrea, they would be roughly halfway to Asmara. For Isaias, that is the nightmare scenario, and the deep push into Idaga Hamus looks like an attempt to make sure the fighting never gets that close. Why they pulled back This may have been the first time Eritrean forces faced sustained drone warfare on this scale. Reports suggest that military columns were repeatedly struck along the route from Zalambessa to Idaga Hamus. Vehicles that once carried soldiers to the front may have become death traps, forcing survivors to abandon them and flee on foot. If these accounts are accurate, the scene bears a haunting resemblance to the 1991 “Highway of Death,” when Iraqi forces were devastated while retreating from Kuwait. It may well have been an African version of that grim episode. Silence as the only option Eritrea is also trapped in a diplomatic dilemma. With its forces reportedly operating some 60 kilometres inside another country’s territory, the regime in Asmara faces an uncomfortable choice: acknowledge the losses and risk exposing the scale and consequences of its invasion, or publicly condemn the strikes and invite questions about what its troops were doing so deep inside Ethiopia. Either response could deepen Isaias Afwerki’s diplomatic troubles.
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🚨Stay tuned An assessment of why the Eritrean regime recklessly pushed its convoys as far as Idaga Hamus and what unfolded as a result is coming soon.
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🚨Video showing destroyed Eritrean regime truck inside Tigray, Ethiopia.
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🚨 More TPLF losses
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🚨 BREAKING: Reports indicate that Axum, Shiraro, and Zalambessa are now under the control of ENDF and TPF forces.
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Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had bilateral discussions.
Had a fruitful and constructive call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to deliberate upon bilateral relations and key regional developments, reaffirming our commitment to cooperation on matters of mutual interest. @netanyahu
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🚨 More TPLF losses
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🚨destroyed Eritrean regime trucks
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🚨ENDF has reportedly captured more TPLF arms and military equipment.
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🚨A large number of TPLF fighters who reportedly fled the front lines are registering for the DDR program at one of registration station in Mekelle.
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🚨 BREAKING: Initial reports indicates that five senior TPLF commanders have been captured near Enticho. Those reportedly captured include: Col. Berhane Gebreanania Deputy Army Commander Col. Weldai Mawucha Army Logistics Col. Gebremariam Teklu Commander, 2nd Corps Col. Mehari Yifeter Commissar, 2nd Corps Col. Gebrehaweria Desta Logistics, 2nd Corps
🚨As ENDF and TPF approach Enticho, we may see more TPLF commanders and fighters captured in the area. The town may have served as a final regrouping point for TPLF leaders before dispersal or retreat toward Eritrea. Its capture would be strategically significant for federal forces. The coming hours will be telling us more
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