Brian Prest (@bprest) header
Brian Prest (@bprest) profile picture

Brian Prest

@bprest

Economist @rff, via @DukeU, @NERA_Economics, & @USCBO. Opinions my own.

 Washington, DC
brianprest.com
Joined October 2010
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Photo by Brian Prest (@bprest)Photo by Brian Prest (@bprest)Photo by Brian Prest (@bprest)Photo by Brian Prest (@bprest)Photo by Brian Prest (@bprest)Photo by Brian Prest (@bprest)Photo by Brian Prest (@bprest)Photo by Brian Prest (@bprest)Photo by Brian Prest (@bprest)Photo by Brian Prest (@bprest)
Gasoline prices have been doing something strange recently. When crude prices crashed in June, gas prices didn't follow, and this wasn't just the usual "rockets and feathers" lag. This interactive data tool I built explores up just how unusual this is (bprest.github.io/data-tools/…).
Image from Brian Prest (@bprest)
Image from Brian Prest (@bprest)
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The headline number: on February 23rd and June 29th, Brent crude was essentially identical: $72/barrel both times. Yet US gasoline cost $2.94/gal in February and $3.83/gal in June: a ~90-cent gap for the same crude price.
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The House Natural Resources Committee today is marking up its piece of the reconciliation bill currently making its way through Congress.
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The proposal would make major process changes to federal leasing of public lands for oil and gas production, including cutting royalty rates paid by oil and gas companies operating on federal land by about 25% to 33%.
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Wonky paper alert! New @RFF working paper, "The Shadow Price of Capital", with @billypizer and @richardgnewell rff.org/publications/working…
Image from Brian Prest (@bprest)
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In short: we explain why discounting in benefit-cost analysis using an investment rate of return is generally incorrect and can yield extremely misleading estimates of the costs and benefits of policies with long-lived impacts, such as climate change.
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All credit for this brilliant paper title goes to @cjwich
JAERE (@JaereAere) profile pictureJAERE@JaereAere4 Apr 2023
📢🏆🥇Announcing the inaugural @JaereAere March Madness Best Article Title Champion: "RCTs against the Machine: Can Machine Learning Prediction Methods Recover Experimental Treatment Effects?" by: @bprest, @cjwich & @Klpalmer7 Read the winning paper: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10…
Image from JAERE (@JaereAere)
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We did it! @cjwich, @Klpalmer7
JAERE (@JaereAere) profile pictureJAERE@JaereAere3 Apr 2023
🚨 JAERE's March Madness FINAL ROUND 🚨 🍸Cournot, Pigou & Ricardo Walk into a Bar: Unilateral Enviro Policy and Leakage w/ Market Power and Firm Heterogeneity vs. 🎸RCTs against the Machine: Can Machine Learning Prediction Methods Recover Experimental Treatment Effects?
43%Cournot Walks into a Bar
57%RCTs Against the Machine
191 votes • Final results
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Final round! Vote for RCTs Against the Machine!
JAERE (@JaereAere) profile pictureJAERE@JaereAere3 Apr 2023
🚨 JAERE's March Madness FINAL ROUND 🚨 🍸Cournot, Pigou & Ricardo Walk into a Bar: Unilateral Enviro Policy and Leakage w/ Market Power and Firm Heterogeneity vs. 🎸RCTs against the Machine: Can Machine Learning Prediction Methods Recover Experimental Treatment Effects?
43%Cournot Walks into a Bar
57%RCTs Against the Machine
191 votes • Final results
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Final Four time! Vote for us! 🎸🎸🎸
JAERE (@JaereAere) profile pictureJAERE@JaereAere30 Mar 2023
Replying to @JaereAere
🎸 RCTs against the Machine: Can Machine Learning Prediction Methods Recover Experimental Treatment Effects? tinyurl.com/jmr2e1 vs. 🗳️ Can Pigou at the Polls Stop Us Melting the Poles? tinyurl.com/jmr2h2
64%RCTs Against the Machine
36%Pigou at the Polls
137 votes • Final results
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New @rff piece out today on discounting, with high relevance for climate policy and the social cost of carbon--joint with @richardgnewell and @billypizer : rff.org/publications/issue-b…
The Shadow Price of Capital: Accounting for Capital Displacement in Benefit–Cost Analysis

The Shadow Price of Capital: Accounting for Capital Displacement in Benefit–Cost Analysis

rff.org
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Cut to the chase: We explain why discounting in benefit-cost analysis using an investment rate of return is generally incorrect and can yield extremely misleading estimates of the costs and benefits of policies with long-lived impacts, such as climate change.
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Curious about the modeling underlying EPA's recently update to the social cost of carbon? @kevinrennert and I unpack it in a new @ResourcesMag blog post: resources.org/common-resourc….
The US Environmental Protection Agency Introduces a New Social Cost of Carbon for Public Comment

The US Environmental Protection Agency Introduces a New Social Cost of Carbon for Public Comment

The US Environmental Protection Agency has introduced an updated approach to estimating the social cost of carbon that incorporates important scientific and statistical advances.

resources.org
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TLDR; they draw heavily from comprehensive work from the teams at @rff and @impact_lab on updated socioeconomic projections, climate modeling, climate impacts ("damages") and state-contingent discounting to price risk.
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New paper alert, "Comprehensive Evidence Implies a Higher Social Cost of CO2" nature.com/articles/s41586-0…

Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2

Nature - Coupling advances in socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions and discounting methods yields an estimate of the social cost of carbon of US$185 per tonne of...

nature.com
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Join us in-person at @rff headquarters in DC, or virtually here, to unpack our comprehensive update to the SCC! rff.org/events/rff-live/an-u…
An Updated Social Cost of Carbon: Calculating the Cost of Climate Change

An Updated Social Cost of Carbon: Calculating the Cost of Climate Change

rff.org
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If you're at all interested in climate and energy policy, you definitely don't want to miss next week's major @rff event on new estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon! #energytwitter
Resources for the Future (@rff) profile pictureResources for the Future@rff26 Aug 2022
9/1 @ 1 p.m. EDT ☁️ Join us in person or virtually for an #RFFlive event, where a multi-institutional team of researchers will unveil an updated estimate of the #SocialCostOfCarbon and discuss its implications for #ClimatePolicy. Details here: rff.org/events/rff-live/an-u… #SCC
Image from Resources for the Future (@rff)
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The IRA expected to be signed today is expected to cut ~1B tons of carbon by 2030. But a key compromise in securing Manchin’s vote was continuing federal oil & gas leasing. How much does this matter to the overall emissions cuts? New @rff blog post: resources.org/common-resourc…
Inflation Reduction Act Can Achieve Emissions Reductions Even with Oil and Gas Provisions

Inflation Reduction Act Can Achieve Emissions Reductions Even with Oil and Gas Provisions

Research from RFF Fellow Brian C. Prest suggests that, overall, the Inflation Reduction Act reduces greenhouse gas emissions to a degree that far outweighs the potential increases in emissions due to...

resources.org
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This is actually a very complex question deserving a nuanced answer. Why? Two reasons: baselines and whether we’re considering just US or global emissions effects.
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In a win for carbon pricing, the Inflation Reduction Act has a $1500/ton fee on methane emissions from oil and gas infrastructure. My work shows that it could lead to major cuts in methane emissions, with little effect on gas prices! but... rff.org/publications/issue-b…
Methane Fees’ Effects on Natural Gas Prices and Methane Leakage

Methane Fees’ Effects on Natural Gas Prices and Methane Leakage

rff.org
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...key to that success is that the emissions data it's based on accurately reflects emissions in oil fields. If a company cuts its emissions, & the official dataset doesn't reflect it, the incentive to reduce vanishes. Measurement matters! EPA & industry have to get this right!
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The Inflation Reduction Act strikes a middle ground on federal oil & gas leasing: requiring more federal O&G leasing (& even conditioning renewable development on federal property on oil & gas development in tandem!). But also raising O&G royalties--ie, the public cut of revenues
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The royalty rate for drilling on federal land increases from 12.5% to 16.67%--slightly lower than the 18.75% rate was previously discussed
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.@EIAgov reported today that use of refined coal at US power plants **absolutely plummeted** this spring after the $7/ton <=> +$1B/yr tax credit expired at the end of 2021. Look at that graph! In the words of my coauthor @AlanKrupnick, subsidies matter! eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail…
Image from Brian Prest (@bprest)
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Last year, 31% of US coal-fired generation ran on refined coal. This year? Close to zero.
Image from Brian Prest (@bprest)
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Very honored to be publishing a paper today in the @JaereAere special issue in honor of Marty Weitzman, which includes a wonderful introduction by @RobertStavins and @GernotWagner (gwagner.com/MLW-JAERE/) journals.uchicago.edu/toc/ja…
Martin Weitzman: A Gift that Keeps on Giving

Martin Weitzman: A Gift that Keeps on Giving

Introduction for Special Issue in Honor of Martin Weitzman

gwagner.com
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My first interaction with Marty was at a conference early in grad school. I was presenting on a new take on his 1974 prices-versus quantities paper. Marty was sitting front row center, which as a grad student was frankly both thrilling & terrifying.
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Absolutely agonizing: on a Zoom call, and I see an email notification with the first line "Our review of your manuscript is now complete", but I can't check the email until the call is over...
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It was good news. Conditional accept
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Great take on gas prices from @BorensteinS, as usual
Energy Institute at Haas (@energyathaas) profile pictureEnergy Institute at Haas@energyathaas29 Nov 2021
Is Gasoline Becoming Unaffordable? energyathaas.wordpress.com/2…
Is Gasoline Becoming Unaffordable?

Is Gasoline Becoming Unaffordable?

Not if you can remember the world before COVID. In 1960, gasoline cost $0.31 per gallon. Isn’t it outrageous that it costs more than $0.31 today?   If you think that’s a ridiculous statement, you m…

energyathaas.wordpress.com
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Replying to @rff
@rff is an amazing place where every day we get to do rigorous, independent, peer-reviewed research on hugely important policy issues. I'm so happy to be part of this team. If you value independent research on environmental policy, please consider supporting our work!
Resources for the Future (@rff) profile pictureResources for the Future@rff7 Oct 2021
It’s a special day for us! Nearly 70 years ago, on October 7, 1952, RFF was established as the first think tank dedicated exclusively to environmental and natural resource issues. rff.org/about/legacy/
Image from Resources for the Future (@rff)
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New paper alert!
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