Brussels-based #ForeignPolicy and #EU expert, affectionate about the rabbithole of #Forecasting and #ThreatAssessment.

Brussels
Joined June 2009
The government has decided to return the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where it will once again play a central role in the professional support of Hungarian foreign policy decisions. Botond Feledy will lead the Institute.
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Botond Feledy retweeted
The tangible aspects of foreign policy and diplomacy often take the form of a summit or high-level negotiations. Behind these, however, lies a great deal of teamwork, preparation, analysis, and strategic thinking. That is why the government has decided to return the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where it will once again play a central role in the professional support of Hungarian foreign policy decisions. Previously, under the direction of the Prime Minister’s Office, the Institute’s operations have been increasingly shaped by day-to-day political expectations, instead of professional considerations. I would like the Institute to once again provide decision-makers with the highest possible standards of independent, professional expertise. We need analyses that clearly show where Hungary’s national interest lies, what tipping points in global politics we are facing, and how these will affect Hungary’s security, economy, and room for maneuver. The Institute’s new leadership will be dedicated to this thorough, independent research and foresight. For this reason, I have asked the renowned foreign policy analyst Botond Feledy to take on the role of CEO and lead the Institute. Hungarian foreign policy requires strong professional foundations, long-term thinking, and analyses that accurately grasp global trends. The task of the reorganized Institute of International Affairs is to strengthen the analytical and strategic perspective and to integrate it organically into foreign policy decision-making. Foreign policy affects our security, our economy, our energy supplies, the Hungarian communities beyond our borders, and how Hungary is perceived around the world. This requires a broad perspective, comprehensive knowledge, and a cross-cutting approach that complements the Ministry’s day-to-day work. We can effectively represent Hungarian interests by relying on the best possible information, analyses, and decisions. That is why it is also important to foster more public debate, accessible analysis, and genuine dialogue on foreign policy—with economic actors, the press, academia, and civil society alike. We are building an institute that both supports the work of the government and engages the Hungarian society as well. I am confident that, under the leadership of Botond Feledy, the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs will become one of the key hubs supporting the renewal of Hungarian foreign policy.
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‼️Here's the result of Western allies letting Hungary increase dependency on Russian energy without limitations. As we reported, the number of Russian citizens building Rosatom's nuclear power plant in Hungary is set to increase from 400 to 1,000 by 2025: vsquare.org/goulash-newslett…
Orban’s latest move, amid heightened (and well-founded) European fears of Russian sabotage operations: forbes.hu/tarsadalom/orosz-b…
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All Kinzhal ballistic missiles fired by Russia at targets in Kyiv have been downed since the U.S. provided Patriot air defense systems in May 2023, Ukrainian Air Force Colonel Serhii Yaremenko said in an interview with Ukrinform published on July 4.
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For nearly a decade the disinfo war in Slovakia focused mainly on pro-Russian media & we ignored the role of Orban’s media in peddling its narratives in southern Slovakia. They played their role in the election of Fico, Pelegrini, & they continue to play their divisive role
Viktor Orbán is still peddling disinformation on Slovak PM Robert Fico's assailant, claiming in a radio interview today that "we are dealing with a left-wing, pro-war perpetrator, connecting the assassination with the war is not unjustified". Fico and Smer are also left-wing.🤷‍♂️
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🧵 Over the past three decades, the transatlantic community has paid much more attention to Russia than to anyone else. Far too much. The world does not revolve around Russia, and we should finally stop acting as if Russia was the centre of the universe
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✅ Confirmed by @hvg_hu: Viktor Orbán's new strategic advisory board was informally established today with the participation of the same people that I tweeted about. HVG's article in Hungarian: hvg.hu/itthon/20240304_Tanac…
💥SCOOP: Some reshuffling is expected in Orbán's staff after the pedophilia scandal that rocket his government and led to the resignation of President @KatalinNovak_HU. For example, according to my sources with ties to the government, there are plans to set up a new Strategic Advisory Board advising the prime minister. It could be partly filled with senior security/intelligence advisors, partly with some "respectable" right-wing figures. Names floated: Károly Papp (currently overseeing intelligence agencies as state secretary at the PM's Cabinet Office), József Kovács (national security advisor), György Bakondi (internal security advisor). Other members would include some names who were runner-ups to succeed Katalin Novák as president, such as senior academic Miklós Maróth, former constitutional court judge and former minister István Stumpf, and former State Audit Office head Árpád Kovács. The idea is that Orbán's image as a strong leader who is always in charge and surrounds himself with serious people should be reinforced after the pedophilia scandal which exposed his government's weaknesses. However, there's another goal, one of my sources told me. Setting up such an advisory board would also indicate serious changes in the political oversight of Hungary's national security agencies, as Papp and Kovács are expected to leave their current (much more important) roles if they would join this new group. They are representatives of the "old guard" – getting rid of them would make way for a new generation of politically more loyal government officials to oversee national security agencies. If the advisory board is indeed set up, it could happen next week – but there are still some tensions around it, my sources told.
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I recently shared this post from @visegrad24 but wanted to expand a little more on the implications of such ground-based uncrewed systems for contemporary and future land warfare. 1/25 🧵 🇺🇦
Ukrainian land-based suicide drone strikes a Russian position. Future warfare is here
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6/6 I was thinking of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. What were you thinking of?
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💥Scoop: Visegrád Four Group (🇨🇿🇭🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰) prime ministers are planned to meet in Prague on February 27, government and foreign policy expert sources from multiple V4 countries tell me. It hasn't been announced officially and there's still some uncertainty hence I'm careful with the phrasing. But it's very likely. 🇨🇿PM Petr Fiala previously hinted that such a meeting can only happen if Hungary supported both the EU's financial aid for Ukraine and the 🇸🇪 NATO accession. Since the Hungarian parliament will convene on February 26 to start its spring session, ideally, Viktor Orbán would travel to Prague already after the parliament's confirmation vote. On Sunday, he actually promised that there will be a vote very soon – however, he made similar promises multiple times without delivering. 🍿Prepare your popcorns for the Orbán-Donald Tusk joint presser. (If the meeting is canceled last minute at least you would still have your popcorn.) 📨For more details and scoops from Central Europe, subscribe to @VSquare_Project's Goulash newsletter: vsquare.org/newsletter/ 📭Previous newsletter issues: vsquare.org/category/goulash…
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Botond Feledy retweeted
Rutte's NATO candidacy is getting interesting. More updates from Munich on the live blog: theguardian.com/world/live/2…
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‼️🚫Orbán’s MPs didn’t show up in Hungary’s parliament to vote on 🇸🇪’s NATO accession - no quorum, no vote. Orbán promised to @jensstoltenberg there’d be a vote ASAP. He didn’t keep his word. Meanwhile, ambassadors of NATO allies 🇺🇸🇳🇱🇸🇰🇳🇴🇩🇰 🇪🇪 were present, @Telexhu reports.
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Botond Feledy retweeted
NEW: Turkish Parliament to ratify Sweden’s Nato bid later this week, possibly on Tuesday, sources tell me.
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Absolutely masterful destruction of the Russian T-72 obr.2022 by Ukrainian FPV drone operator. Krynky Kherson region. Video by the “Birds of Magyar” unit. t.me/robert_magyar/766
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/1. Feodosia, Crimea. Strike in the port area. Sounds of explosions and presumably air defence activity is reported.
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Botond Feledy retweeted
When you tell your contractor you need that feature quickly. #InvoiceActually
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"The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on Dec. 2 that it had requested Ukraine's parliament cancel the permission of lawmaker and ex-President Petro Poroshenko to exit the country due to a planned meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The meeting would be used by Russian propaganda, the SBU said, making Poroshenko a "tool in the hands of the Russian special services." Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Hungary has repeatedly obstructed EU fundsfor Kyiv while opposing sanctions against Russia. Orban, who maintains close ties with the Kremlin, has refused to provide military aid to Ukraine, and said he would not support Ukraine's accession into the EU. Poroshenko said on Dec. 1 that border guards prevented him from leaving the country even though he had previously received an official permission." @KyivIndependent
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Botond Feledy retweeted
Donald Trump lied about his net worth on his statements of financial condition to get loans for much better terms than he should have. It's that simple.
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