Portfolio Manager at Blockforce Capital and author of The Node Ahead newsletter
California, USA
Joined October 2013
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1/6
In March, with BTC down >50%, I published an analysis arguing BTC was in an attractive accumulation zone.
The thesis was based on onchain data, historical cycles and valuation, not a prediction of the exact bottom.
Bitcoin's subsequent Q3 rally validated that analysis.
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5/6
BTC rallied roughly 43% in Q3, its strongest third quarter since 2017.
The March analysis shows how combining onchain data, market structure, historical cycles & valuation can help identify opportunities when sentiment is weak and the balance of risk and reward is shifting.
6/6
The objective isn't to call every top and bottom. It's to recognize when the probabilities shift, define an attractive range and act with a multi-year horizon.
thenodeahead.substack.com/p/…
1/6
BTC was up 43% in Q3, its best since 2017.
Meanwhile, Treasury yields surged, oil topped $100, & CLARITY stalled in the Senate.
Under the conventional macro framework, this should have been negative for BTC but the rally makes sense when you look beneath the surface.
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5/6
These forces reinforced one another.
Fiscal concerns strengthened BTC's thesis. Seller exhaustion made the market more sensitive to new demand. A more developed financial ecosystem gave that capital more ways to participate.
The rally wasn't as irrational as it looked.
6/6
In the latest issue of The Node Ahead, I examine why bitcoin’s Q3 rally was more logical than it looked, and what it reveals about the structural changes underway in crypto.
Full analysis 👇
thenodeahead.substack.com/p/…
1/8
In June, I wrote that even if CLARITY Act failed, crypto’s regulatory progress would continue.
That was not the consensus view.
CLARITY appeared to be the clearest path toward comprehensive crypto regulation, and its failure was widely expected to be a major setback.
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7/8
Financial infrastructure is changing.
Assets can trade and settle differently. Capital can move differently. And as more economic activity moves onto blockchain infrastructure, the distribution of value across the financial stack can change as well.
8/8
In my latest article, I look at why failing to pass CLARITY might actually be more bullish for crypto than passing it, and why the regulatory path now unfolding could accelerate the integration of blockchain into traditional financial markets.
thenodeahead.substack.com/p/…