The US shipped 147 bcm of LNG last year, 1/3 more than Qatar. Number 2 on this list has been hit hard since March. Qatar exported 111 bcm in 2025, per the Energy Institute. Then Iran struck Ras Laffan, and Hormuz closed behind it. Qatar used to supply about 45% of India’s LNG. In September it was about 4%. The US already supplied 93% of global LNG export growth last year. This year it’s carrying the market. The buyers are China at 91 bcm, Japan at 89 and South Korea at 63. They’re bidding against Europe, whose storage is only 74.5% full. Japan’s power price just hit a four-year high. Next year’s list will look very different.

🚨European gas costs 9 times what Americans pay. Dutch TTF traded at about $29 per MMBtu on Monday. Henry Hub was $3.08. That’s a gap of almost $26 on every unit of gas. The US already supplied 93% of global LNG export growth last year. With Qatar hit and Hormuz contested, the gap is wide open. Even after liquefaction and record shipping costs, every US export terminal is running for Europe. Europe’s storage is only 74.5% full heading into winter. That gap is why I’m long LNG this year.

Inflation is back...Gold is down 26% That’s not supposed to happen. Oil did it. WTI is above $100, about 55% above last year’s average. US inflation rose to 3.7% in September, from 3.4%. Gasoline alone is up 34% in a year. So the Fed is hiking. It raised rates in September, and traders see a 91% chance of another hike in December. The US 10-year yield is above 5%. the logic is the following: Gold pays no interest. When bonds pay 5%, holding gold costs you more. Gold peaked at $5,597 in January. Today it’s about $4,124. I’m watching the Fed on 28 October.

🛢️💰 Big Oil is about to double its profits. The 5 Western majors will earn about $ 50bn in the 3rd quarter, against about $ 24bn a year ago. ExxonMobil: about $ 17bn, +101% Shell: about $ 10bn, +84% Chevron: about $ 9.5bn, +158% TotalEnergies: about $ 8.6bn, +111% bp: about $ 5.8bn, +155% The bigger driver this quarter is refining. Shell has guided for a record refining margin of $42 a barrel. Across the majors, refining margins are running 3-4 times last year’s levels. That’s what happens when Russian refineries keep getting hit and Gulf exports are stuck behind Hormuz. The world is short of diesel and whoever owns refineries gets paid. The profits look locked in. The test is what they do with the cash. BP is paying down debt and HSBC doesn’t expect its buyback to return before 2028. Shell buys back $ 3bn a quarter and HSBC sees $ 3.5bn in Q4. Exxon and Chevron have also been cutting debt. Investors want one thing above all: no spending spree on the back of a war windfall. Results land on 29 October for Shell and TotalEnergies and on 30 October for BP, Chevron and ExxonMobil. Buybacks, debt or new projects: what would you want them to do with the cash?

Copper needs $ 332bn of new mines. Each one takes about 17 years to build. Bloomberg new outlook sees a deficit starting in 2028 and widening to 20 million tonnes by 2050. That’s about 44% of demand. 9 of the 10 transition metals it tracks now look covered. Copper is the odd one out. Demand rises 61% to almost 46 million tonnes by 2050. Electric transport alone needs 11.4 million. You can print money.... You can’t print a mine.