@blownleadbot

Run by @JDPipping and @AdiWyner. A @WhartonSABI project.

arxiv.org/abs/2601.18774
Joined October 2026
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Blown leads happen more often than you think. When a team loses a game it looked certain to win, how surprised should we really be? A @WhartonSABI project.
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Nuggets 141, Pelicans 135. Oct. 24, 2026. New Orleans (21.1%) reached 98.7% win probability, up 110–91 with 11:09 left in Q4. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 1.32% of games. For teams starting at 21.1%, 0.35% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows New Orleans Pelicans win probability throughout the game against Denver Nuggets on Oct. 24, 2026. Final score: Denver Nuggets 141, New Orleans Pelicans 135. The highlighted peak is 98.7%, up 110–91 with 11:09 remaining in Q4. The first reported win probability was 21.1%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows New Orleans Pelicans win probability throughout the game against Denver Nuggets on Oct. 24, 2026. Final score: Denver Nuggets 141, New Orleans Pelicans 135. The highlighted peak is 98.7%, up 110–91 with 11:09 remaining in Q4. The first reported win probability was 21.1%. Source: ESPN.

Wizards 124, Bulls 120. Oct. 24, 2026. Chicago (45.4%) reached 80.1% win probability, up 60–50 with 1:37 left in Q2. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 24.84% of games. For teams starting at 45.4%, 20.66% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows Chicago Bulls win probability throughout the game against Washington Wizards on Oct. 24, 2026. Final score: Washington Wizards 124, Chicago Bulls 120. The highlighted peak is 80.1%, up 60–50 with 1:37 remaining in Q2. The first reported win probability was 45.4%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows Chicago Bulls win probability throughout the game against Washington Wizards on Oct. 24, 2026. Final score: Washington Wizards 124, Chicago Bulls 120. The highlighted peak is 80.1%, up 60–50 with 1:37 remaining in Q2. The first reported win probability was 45.4%. Source: ESPN.

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Grizzlies 111, Warriors 108. Oct. 23, 2026. Golden State (58.5%) reached 98.8% win probability, up 106–94 with 3:47 left in Q4. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 1.21% of games. For teams starting at 58.5%, 1.71% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows Golden State Warriors win probability throughout the game against Memphis Grizzlies on Oct. 23, 2026. Final score: Memphis Grizzlies 111, Golden State Warriors 108. The highlighted peak is 98.8%, up 106–94 with 3:47 remaining in Q4. The first reported win probability was 58.5%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows Golden State Warriors win probability throughout the game against Memphis Grizzlies on Oct. 23, 2026. Final score: Memphis Grizzlies 111, Golden State Warriors 108. The highlighted peak is 98.8%, up 106–94 with 3:47 remaining in Q4. The first reported win probability was 58.5%. Source: ESPN.

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Bulls 132, Bucks 125. Oct. 23, 2026. Milwaukee (56.1%) reached 90.5% win probability, up 26–11 with 3:18 left in Q1. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 10.50% of games. For teams starting at 56.1%, 13.41% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows Milwaukee Bucks win probability throughout the game against Chicago Bulls on Oct. 23, 2026. Final score: Chicago Bulls 132, Milwaukee Bucks 125. The highlighted peak is 90.5%, up 26–11 with 3:18 remaining in Q1. The first reported win probability was 56.1%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows Milwaukee Bucks win probability throughout the game against Chicago Bulls on Oct. 23, 2026. Final score: Chicago Bulls 132, Milwaukee Bucks 125. The highlighted peak is 90.5%, up 26–11 with 3:18 remaining in Q1. The first reported win probability was 56.1%. Source: ESPN.

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76ers 114, Cavaliers 106. Oct. 22, 2026. Cleveland (29.2%) reached 99.0% win probability, up 69–40 with 0:52.6 left in Q2. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 1.01% of games. For teams starting at 29.2%, 0.42% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows Cleveland Cavaliers win probability throughout the game against Philadelphia 76ers on Oct. 22, 2026. Final score: Philadelphia 76ers 114, Cleveland Cavaliers 106. The highlighted peak is 99.0%, up 69–40 with 0:52.6 remaining in Q2. The first reported win probability was 29.2%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows Cleveland Cavaliers win probability throughout the game against Philadelphia 76ers on Oct. 22, 2026. Final score: Philadelphia 76ers 114, Cleveland Cavaliers 106. The highlighted peak is 99.0%, up 69–40 with 0:52.6 remaining in Q2. The first reported win probability was 29.2%. Source: ESPN.

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Pacers 123, Pelicans 120. Oct. 21, 2026. New Orleans (38.0%) reached 87.7% win probability, up 95–88 with 10:03 left in Q4. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 14.03% of games. For teams starting at 38.0%, 8.60% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows New Orleans Pelicans win probability throughout the game against Indiana Pacers on Oct. 21, 2026. Final score: Indiana Pacers 123, New Orleans Pelicans 120. The highlighted peak is 87.7%, up 95–88 with 10:03 remaining in Q4. The first reported win probability was 38.0%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows New Orleans Pelicans win probability throughout the game against Indiana Pacers on Oct. 21, 2026. Final score: Indiana Pacers 123, New Orleans Pelicans 120. The highlighted peak is 87.7%, up 95–88 with 10:03 remaining in Q4. The first reported win probability was 38.0%. Source: ESPN.

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76ers 106, Knicks 100. Oct. 20, 2026. New York (52.1%) reached 80.8% win probability, up 46–37 with 5:31 left in Q2. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 23.76% of games. For teams starting at 52.1%, 25.85% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows New York Knicks win probability throughout the game against Philadelphia 76ers on Oct. 20, 2026. Final score: Philadelphia 76ers 106, New York Knicks 100. The highlighted peak is 80.8%, up 46–37 with 5:31 remaining in Q2. The first reported win probability was 52.1%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows New York Knicks win probability throughout the game against Philadelphia 76ers on Oct. 20, 2026. Final score: Philadelphia 76ers 106, New York Knicks 100. The highlighted peak is 80.8%, up 46–37 with 5:31 remaining in Q2. The first reported win probability was 52.1%. Source: ESPN.

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Pistons 121, Celtics 113. Oct. 20, 2026. Boston (48.9%) reached 98.5% win probability, up 72–50 with 8:19 left in Q3. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 1.52% of games. For teams starting at 48.9%, 1.46% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows Boston Celtics win probability throughout the game against Detroit Pistons on Oct. 20, 2026. Final score: Detroit Pistons 121, Boston Celtics 113. The highlighted peak is 98.5%, up 72–50 with 8:19 remaining in Q3. The first reported win probability was 48.9%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows Boston Celtics win probability throughout the game against Detroit Pistons on Oct. 20, 2026. Final score: Detroit Pistons 121, Boston Celtics 113. The highlighted peak is 98.5%, up 72–50 with 8:19 remaining in Q3. The first reported win probability was 48.9%. Source: ESPN.

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Cardinals 18, Rams 16. Oct. 18, 2026. Los Angeles (87.3%) reached 91.5% win probability, tied 0–0 with 12:18 left in Q1. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 9.34% of games. For teams starting at 87.3%, 64.42% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows Los Angeles Rams win probability throughout the game against Arizona Cardinals on Oct. 18, 2026. Final score: Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16. The highlighted peak is 91.5%, tied 0–0 with 12:18 remaining in Q1. The first reported win probability was 87.3%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows Los Angeles Rams win probability throughout the game against Arizona Cardinals on Oct. 18, 2026. Final score: Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16. The highlighted peak is 91.5%, tied 0–0 with 12:18 remaining in Q1. The first reported win probability was 87.3%. Source: ESPN.

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Titans 26, Colts 20. Oct. 18, 2026. Indianapolis (72.3%) reached 94.1% win probability, up 13–0 with 15:00 left in Q3. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 6.29% of games. For teams starting at 72.3%, 16.46% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows Indianapolis Colts win probability throughout the game against Tennessee Titans on Oct. 18, 2026. Final score: Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20. The highlighted peak is 94.1%, up 13–0 with 15:00 remaining in Q3. The first reported win probability was 72.3%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows Indianapolis Colts win probability throughout the game against Tennessee Titans on Oct. 18, 2026. Final score: Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20. The highlighted peak is 94.1%, up 13–0 with 15:00 remaining in Q3. The first reported win probability was 72.3%. Source: ESPN.

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Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19. Oct. 18, 2026. Tampa Bay (41.5%) reached 91.0% win probability, up 16–3 with 0:00 left in Q3. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 9.93% of games. For teams starting at 41.5%, 7.03% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows Tampa Bay Buccaneers win probability throughout the game against Pittsburgh Steelers on Oct. 18, 2026. Final score: Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19. The highlighted peak is 91.0%, up 16–3 with 0:00 remaining in Q3. The first reported win probability was 41.5%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows Tampa Bay Buccaneers win probability throughout the game against Pittsburgh Steelers on Oct. 18, 2026. Final score: Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19. The highlighted peak is 91.0%, up 16–3 with 0:00 remaining in Q3. The first reported win probability was 41.5%. Source: ESPN.

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Browns 13, Ravens 10. Oct. 18, 2026. Baltimore (55.5%) reached 87.5% win probability, up 10–3 with 1:45 left in Q3. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 14.25% of games. For teams starting at 55.5%, 17.79% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows Baltimore Ravens win probability throughout the game against Cleveland Browns on Oct. 18, 2026. Final score: Cleveland Browns 13, Baltimore Ravens 10. The highlighted peak is 87.5%, up 10–3 with 1:45 remaining in Q3. The first reported win probability was 55.5%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows Baltimore Ravens win probability throughout the game against Cleveland Browns on Oct. 18, 2026. Final score: Cleveland Browns 13, Baltimore Ravens 10. The highlighted peak is 87.5%, up 10–3 with 1:45 remaining in Q3. The first reported win probability was 55.5%. Source: ESPN.

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Bills 37, Rams 34. Oct. 12, 2026. Los Angeles (58.0%) reached 83.7% win probability, tied 34–34 with 5:37 left in OT. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 19.46% of games. For teams starting at 58.0%, 26.88% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows Los Angeles Rams win probability throughout the game against Buffalo Bills on Oct. 12, 2026. Final score: Buffalo Bills 37, Los Angeles Rams 34. The highlighted peak is 83.7%, tied at 34–34 with 5:37 remaining in OT. The first reported win probability was 58.0%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows Los Angeles Rams win probability throughout the game against Buffalo Bills on Oct. 12, 2026. Final score: Buffalo Bills 37, Los Angeles Rams 34. The highlighted peak is 83.7%, tied at 34–34 with 5:37 remaining in OT. The first reported win probability was 58.0%. Source: ESPN.

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Ravens 30, Falcons 23. Oct. 11, 2026. Atlanta (60.1%) reached 97.6% win probability, up 23–15 with 2:25 left in Q4. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 2.48% of games. For teams starting at 60.1%, 3.74% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
A line chart shows Atlanta Falcons win probability throughout the game against Baltimore Ravens on Oct. 11, 2026. Final score: Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23. The highlighted peak is 97.6%, up 23–15 with 2:25 remaining in Q4. The first reported win probability was 60.1%. Source: ESPN.

ALT A line chart shows Atlanta Falcons win probability throughout the game against Baltimore Ravens on Oct. 11, 2026. Final score: Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23. The highlighted peak is 97.6%, up 23–15 with 2:25 remaining in Q4. The first reported win probability was 60.1%. Source: ESPN.

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Jaguars 19, Eagles 17. Oct. 11, 2026. Philadelphia (26.3%) reached 99.9% win probability, up 17–16 with 0:08 left in Q4. Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 0.10% of games. For teams starting at 26.3%, only 0.04% of losses are this extreme. WP: @ESPN
Jaguars 19, Eagles 17, October 11, 2026. A line chart shows Philadelphia's ESPN win probability over the full game, using every timed feed observation. The vertical axis runs from 0% to 100%, with a 50% midpoint; the horizontal axis marks kickoff, the end of the first quarter, halftime, the end of the third quarter, and the final whistle. The entire path is navy, with a red dot at the 99.9% maximum, when Philadelphia led 17–16 with eight seconds remaining in Q4. The observed final probability is zero. The first, untimed feed observation is retained in the source data but excluded from the time plot.

ALT Jaguars 19, Eagles 17, October 11, 2026. A line chart shows Philadelphia's ESPN win probability over the full game, using every timed feed observation. The vertical axis runs from 0% to 100%, with a 50% midpoint; the horizontal axis marks kickoff, the end of the first quarter, halftime, the end of the third quarter, and the final whistle. The entire path is navy, with a red dot at the 99.9% maximum, when Philadelphia led 17–16 with eight seconds remaining in Q4. The observed final probability is zero. The first, untimed feed observation is retained in the source data but excluded from the time plot.

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