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Human Capital Markets
Joined November 2011
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How much is your meme really worth? 🤔
Ask yourself the following question: How familiar is the target market of (insert meme here) with risk taking and investment? The higher the likelihood - the more value can accrue to the meme over time.
all time high in dex volume on Robinhood chain and you are bearish $PONS? Couldn't be me...
Robinhood has officially surpassed Solana in 24h Dex volume. GGWP $PONS
🎯🎯🎯
There is a pattern in every single $100M runner on Robinhood.
There is initial traction on the coin that pulls in a lot of capital from everywhere. Once that euphoria slows down it shakes all the short term buyers out.
The flush from -60% to -95% migrates the supply to holders that won't sell and a "team" to pick up supply for another run.
When new demand comes in, it hits a thin sell side with maybe a catalyst to accelerate. This is when it gets parabolic.
Once you understand that this pattern repeats over and over again you can search for these spots.
Robinhood is a holders chain. Not a flippers chain.
There is a pattern in every single $100M runner on Robinhood.
There is initial traction on the coin that pulls in a lot of capital from everywhere. Once that euphoria slows down it shakes all the short term buyers out.
The flush from -60% to -95% migrates the supply to holders that won't sell and a "team" to pick up supply for another run.
When new demand comes in, it hits a thin sell side with maybe a catalyst to accelerate. This is when it gets parabolic.
Once you understand that this pattern repeats over and over again you can search for these spots.
Robinhood is a holders chain. Not a flippers chain.
Love this feeling in the cycle where you feel like you have already made it because you grinded for 1 month to be well positioned in some genny plays and can take a 50% drawdown and not care 😌😁
28 THOUSAND PEOPLE TUNED IN $CATE
Wild for $CATE - pretty much what you want to see to validate the core base of the next multi billion memecoin
Replying to @PoorGoat_
- 146k users have bought on app at least once. 38K have bought CATE as their first coin.
- $173M total volume on CATE
- 24K unique users have posted a thesis (for a total of 500K+)
That is nuts... just hold launchpad tokens like solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump
"Only 25 out of 292,531 wallets made more than $10K"
The lowest of low EV bets you can make across all public markets.
Trade on FOMO if you want to guarantee that don't make any real money.
Much better off just holding PUMP to go long the revolving door of retards.
Humanity has so much potential, yet the main issue is the lack of coordination...
The next Bitcoin will be a platform for incentivising and coordinating behavior at a global scale:
'Mining' through positive actions aligned with agreed upon behaviors
Decentralized financial primitives for accruing forward value to global initiatives
Several research labs which focus on anti-gaming of said actions
Blockchain as a ledger for keeping track of positive actions and overall individual impact
We need to make positive change financially viable at scale. In time we could even see the financial system align with positive change makers.
Seems like we have the tech. Seems like the time is approaching to try something like this. Now we just need to build.
Hmmmm... pools.trade seems like it could be the interop layer between all the launchpads including pons. Switch between $Cashcat on Noxa and $YOLO on pons.
Bought more $PONS here... I believe we may be collectively kicking ourselves in a few weeks over a 15M MC if Ozzy and family keep on executing
Am I the only one that thinks @TradePools won't be a competing launchpad, but infra instead for existing ones? It's called pools.trade, it seems like infra facilitating the creation of liquidity pools. We'll see...
Your idea deserves to exist even if you've got to fight the haters. Beautifully portrayed @orly____ @knightcore___ cooking
Is $PONS yield going to 300%?
$PONS is a HUGE play this cycle. Let me explain...
PONS is the number one launchpad on Robinhood, accounting for 62% of all the launchpad volume right now. The dev Ozzy is shipping fast (V2 very soon), is ambitious and very community aligned, responding to feedback and interview opportunities. Pons has earned the name 'The people's launchpad' which is a testament to the trust that has been built, which is in itself an important moat. 23.2% of supply has been burned already in a matter of weeks which gives a great yield.
80% of protocol fees goes towards buying and burning PONS, no changes in V2 docs regarding this. Right now this is made up of ETH fees and token fees. Based on what Ozzy has said (and the burn wallet) he is only burning ETH fees right now, because dumping memes on the community is not +EV. It's all verifiable on chain. The burn wallet's outgoing history since launch is readable on Blockscout and contains PONS burns, WETH buyback legs, and stablecoin ops. Currently only ~52% of protocol revenue arrives in ETH (computed from Adam TEHC's dune dashboard) and that's the only part that burns: 80% of the ETH side, nothing from the token side.
Now, let's take a closer look at the yield. Yield = Burn revenue / MC.
Using the latest numbers: 7D average ETH-side protocol revenue is 154K/day, which annualized is $56M, 80% of which funds burns, so ~$45M/yr. At this MC (28M) the yield is 159%. On the option that Robinhood chain succeeds. It's pretty wild. If we take into account V2 having all fees denominated in the quote asset (ETH or USDG or PONS? ;) that can be easily sold, then the same week's total fees imply $86M/yr of burn fuel, a 303% yield... For just holding the token at this mcap.
Let's take a look at the bear case to understand how it's still bullish for $PONS. FOMC being hawkish could spur another mini bear in Q4. Robinhood DEX volume collapses to 150M across the chain, and the share of launchpad volume is 50M (0.95 correlation between both chain and launchpad volume over the last 7D). We'll imagine PONS manages to capture 60% which is probable due to cultural moat, community alignment and lindyness. Because V2 fees are only taken in the quote asset, this doubles the value burned. At today's MC, the annualized burn rate would be 26M. Yield = 26M/28M = 92%, just for holding the token. If the MC goes lower, the yield grows.
Personally, I believe traders will want to keep optionality on Robinhood chain succeeding and regulatory headwinds easing, which could lead to the biggest crypto onboarding event in history (27M funded accounts exposed to crypto rails). $PONS is most probably the best bet to express this option today.
Obviously there are risks. Here they are:
The launchpad space is very competitive. Although nobody has been able to make a dent on PONS share, yet. The 80% burn is a stated policy, not a smart contract, dev presses a button, and could stop pressing it. The project is a leveraged bet on Robinhood chain volume, which fell 30% while I was writing this. PONS doesn't need the casino to grow forever, but it does need the casino open. And the big one: US users still can't touch this chain. The 27M-users remain a possibility, not reality, not a roadmap. Size accordingly. I hold $PONS.
So is $PONS yield going to 300%? Probably. Does this matter? Only if its share of launchpad volume remains dominant.
Thanks to @Adam_Tehc + @that1618guy for the beautiful community dashboards.