Small & mid-cap biotech | Special situations | Off-the-beaten-path ideas. Staunch believer in inefficient markets. Occasional beneficiary of them.
Cambridge, MA
Joined May 2009
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Dana Street Capital retweeted
Small Cap stocks don’t even try to go up anymore. They just look at you like this.
I cannot believe $TLT is about to see a 7 handle and market is still at/near ATHs - no wonder you see stuff breaking below the surface. We’ve entered the twilight zone here
MORGAN STANLEY ACCIDENTALLY LEAKS 100+ DEAL PIPELINE
A Morgan Stanley employee mistakenly emailed an internal document detailing more than 100 investment-banking deals being pitched or monitored across Asia and other regions.
The list reportedly included potential IPOs, private-equity backers, pension funds and paused projects.
Morgan Stanley said it promptly addressed the inadvertent disclosure and is engaging with relevant parties.
My take on these names, which certainly are attractive down here is.. Why be a hero and try to guess the bottom in levered cyclicals when there will be PLENTY of money to be made on the turn? QXO and BLDR for example looked “cheap” a month ago and both have fell another 20-30% since then
Quick thought on stocks:
I don't know what's happening over the next 1-4 quarters with interest rates or housing construction,
but there are a ton of construction/housing supply companies with great market positions that seem to be selling for a lot less than the discounted value of their future earnings.
I own a lot of $QXO, but take a look at $BLDR or $HD or anyplace else in the supply chain. Even $POOL (which I kind of expect to get bought out). Many others in this category.
No details of the confirmatory trial in the PR was extremely bush league from $QURE management
$QURE classic buy the rumour sell the news. All announced today was expected; UK/FDA filings and the alignment on confirmatory trial laid out in Q2 call. IR communication could be better i.e. all in an 8K and not to a select group of brokers. Wise up Matt Kapusta. @uniQure_NV
An $IREN fairytale in 3 parts… absolute joke these guys gave themselves a $1bn comp package the board signed off on lmao
Feeling the same for all the reasons mentioned below. I’ve paired down portfolio to just a handful of names, mostly special sits with upcoming catalysts or perceived catalysts I think will lead to a re-rating regardless of macro: $QURE $CRTO $NN $ANAB $GROY and small spec lottos in $IVVD Q3 COVID readout and $CRVO 2H licensing deal
The chop in this market is gunna be nasty from here on out
I think the everything works regime is over
Mkt not looking great
Midterm seasonality
Bessent trying (unsuccessfully) to intervene in yields
Historic el nino projected massively inflationary to a food supply that Is already under duress
SPR at all time lows
Hormuz and black sea not letting much in
Insurance mkt coming under scrutiny
Open source models used more
Public pressure on data centers etc etc
Things will work but only certain things
In my personal opinion
Dana Street Capital retweeted
This is $MRNA asian play that I told people about a few months ago .: there were rumors of $PFE and $MRK trying to get something like this . Moderna is too expensive for BP.
Not many biotechs ( hardly any ) have mRNA cancer vaccines.
Everest has it in human trials with initial proof of concept ( inducing T cell responses and even one pt response )
They also have in vivo Car for auto immunity with in vivo mRNA
Got both $LESL and $TENX very wrong this summer. Had sizable (5-10%) positions in both names at their peaks. No hedges and didn’t take anything off the table when was up 50-100% at some point in both. Leslie was case of trying to let a winner run after I initiated the position in 3s and not cutting bait soon enough when price action changed violently in the move from 12->7s, Tenex was outsized for a binary and should have been properly hedged. Can do nothing more than learn from these losers and keep head on straight, there’s so many great set ups in this market if you can stay vigilant and nimble, but you’re never gunna bat 1.000 as they say. Still cruising along YTD and 1Y in light of getting smacked around by both of these turds and excited about how portfolio is constructed into year end. Onwards and upwards!
