Turn judgment into capital and content at https://xitter.cf/t.co/Cfq6lFF8Fe
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Joined October 2020
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Billy Jo retweeted
11/8(일) 오후 2시, 비트코인코리아 컨퍼런스에서 @Respect_Invest님과 셀프 커스터디를 두고 디베이트합니다. 그 전에 궁금해서 여쭤봐요.
여러분은 비트코인을 주로 어디에 두고 계세요?
결과는 토론에서 직접 소개할게요 👇
52%하드월렛으로 직접 보관
28%국내외 거래소 (업비트·빗썸·바이낸스 등)
12%MSTR·메타플래닛 같은 트레저리 기업 주식
8%그외는 댓글로 편하게 주세요~
25 votes • Final results Billy Jo retweeted
One of the most universal causes of self-doubt and depression: trying to impress people you don’t like.
Billy Jo retweeted
30 years ago folks told me the internet was dumb because it was just a faster way to send mail.
15 years ago folks told me bitcoin was dumb because it was just for buying drugs on the darknet.
Today folks tell me agentic AI is dumb because it's just for vibe coding apps.
Billy Jo retweeted
I'd like to think of a bitcoin treasury company as a vehicle.
Since we are in a bitcoin accumulation phase, investors are valuing the rate at which bitcoin is accumulated for shareholders.
The reason I think of them as vehicles is because depending on the state of the vehicle and whether it is moving or parked, the value will change.
Parked Vehicle = mNAV 1 and below.
Moving Vehicle = mNAV above 1
The parked vehicle is a stalled car while paying for parking until it gets moving again. There are corporate costs, interest payments, dividends etc.
The moving vehicle is moving at a speed which I'd measure as BTC Yield. However, since this metric is rearview mirror looking I can only use that as a reference.
If this vehicle is moving "fast" with BTC yield each week or month or year. If the vehicle is achieving a BTC yield of 10% per week, the investor is essentially gaining an increase of its bitcoin stack at 10% per week.
Would you as an investor be willing to pay a premium of 1.1x mNAV for this vehicle performance?
If it maintains this level of mNAV by the end of week, you could get off the vehicle and the result would be a 10% growth in your bitcoin stack.
If the mNAV compresses back to 1 by the end of the week (the vehicle parks), you'd be breakeven on your investment.
What if the vehicle is running so smoothly that it's not going to park for a year? What would be an appropriate mNAV? Something to think about. 😊
Honestly I don’t know the “ideal” mNAV.
Theoretical mNAV looks like ~1 if all they do is hold bitcoin.
Over long-run, I suspect it drifts toward 1 as BTC treasury companies slow accumulation.
At that point they start acting like a spot Bitcoin ETF: tight to NAV, almost no fee, plus corporate risk.
What do you think?
Billy Jo retweeted
A new Metaplanet disclosure today!
Simon Gerovich (@gerovich) exercised 92,000 stock acquisition rights on Aug 28, converting them into 64.03 million shares
His position goes from 15.56 million to 79.59 million shares, roughly 5.9% of the company
And he has locked those shares for 5 years, until 2031
This matters
He could have held the rights and kept the option to wait. Instead he put capital on the table to become a direct owner of the shares, and took on the downside risk of 64 million shares for 5 years
He did it with the stock down 31% YTD and mNAV compressed
Not the behavior of someone preparing an exit
Billy Jo retweeted
It’s frighteningly easy to develop pessimistic blinders and lose sight of the incredible blessings and achievements in our lives.
This is common when a single identity—for example, job title and function—leads you to measure self-worth using one or two metrics (like income or promotions, usually in comparison to others) dependent on some variables outside of your control.
Billy Jo retweeted
Congrats to Metaplanet on reaching ₿43,000 and becoming the #3 corporate Bitcoin treasury in the world. You are proving that the Bitcoin treasury strategy is global.🚀
Billy Jo retweeted
Exactly this on a bigger scale:
Swedish #Bitcoin treasury company @H100Group ($H100) received shareholder approval to acquire two Norwegian companies holding 2,449 BTC, increasing its holdings to 3,500 BTC.
Billy Jo retweeted
I recommend reading this first to understand his framework. It seems to me that Bobby's CEBE framework is simple and clear way to see which treasury company is doing their job right for common shareholders.
cebetracker.io/insights/the-…
Billy Jo retweeted
If you're into Bitcoin treasury, follow Bobby.
Most thorough and detailed analysis on Bitcoin treasury companies.
Honestly, there's too much hype or doom-scrolling posts lately. But Bobby's work clears many things out. Great analysis.
Three scenarios at current capital structure:
The Doom Loop ($45K BTC) CEBE: 9,085 sats. Drag: 58.3%. Break-even: $26,224.
CEBE Chop ($75-100K sideways) Wrapper: 6.6%/yr. 26x the cost of a spot BTC ETF.
As Designed ($150K BTC) CEBE: 17,969 sats. Drag: 17.5%. Warrants add +40% if exercised.
Full analysis at cebetracker.io/insights/stri…
Billy Jo retweeted
It would appear CEBE has reached the smartest minds in digital finance!
Very thankful for the recognition of the framework 🙏🧡
Billy Jo retweeted
BPS measures Bitcoin per common share before senior claims. CEBE BPS measures Bitcoin per common share after senior claims. CEBE is the conservative risk metric. BPS is the common equity growth metric. BTC Yield measures BPS execution.
Billy Jo retweeted
They’ll say “you got lucky”.
Reality is, you understand the reasons to own bitcoin and accumulated through extreme volatility with constant FUD.
Billy Jo retweeted
Google went public in August 2004, and went up 100x from there. But it started at 23 Billion.
Anthropic and Open AI are starting at 1 Trillion.
The difference is not only the valuation, it's the fact that at least 4 players are competing neck and neck for LLMs.
All of them are losing massive amounts of money. Google, in contrast was highly profitable.
AI is going to change the world. But I am not completely convinced about these AI companies.
In contrast, Bitcoin has no competition, and its cheap. All the money printing in the next decade will make it immensely valuable.
Billy Jo retweeted
Michael Saylor did something very strategic this morning.
Strategy sold roughly $2.5M worth of Bitcoin.
Why would the biggest Bitcoin bull sell any BTC?
Because he’s sending a message to STRC holders: the dividend comes first, and Strategy is willing to sell a tiny amount of Bitcoin if needed to meet its obligations.
That confidence makes the product more attractive. More demand for STRC = more capital raised. More capital raised = more Bitcoin purchased.
Selling a tiny amount today could help them acquire a lot more Bitcoin tomorrow.
Very strategic ⚡️
