PhD-researcher @SciencePoULB @ULBruxelles | public opinion, affective polarization, elections

Brussels
Joined August 2011
In the meantime, I have been in Montreal for several weeks already for my research stay this fall at @CRC_DemElect @Sciencepo_UdeM. I'll also travel to Philadelphia today for #APSA. Happy to meet with anyone in Montreal this fall or in Philadelphia the upcoming days!
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Extraordinary presentation by @bjarneck from @SciencePoULB on emotional responses to winning and losing elections at the @CRC_DemElect yesterday !
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Today were the first local #elections in Belgium since compulsory voting was abolished for local elections in Flanders (it still is compulsory in other regions). The impact was instantaneous and large, with turnout dropping from +90% to ca. 65% according to preliminary estimates.
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We analysed three decades of Belgian election studies, using a hypothetical question about turnout if compulsory voting were abolished. We find that especially affective polarisation drives turnout intention, while the effects of ideological polarisation are less clear.
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More affectively polarised voters may be more likely to turn out. In addition, political parties have to re-engage in mobilising the electorate, and might pursue more polarising strategies to do so.
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New article out in Politics of the Low Countries, co-authored with @ElieMichel3. We explore whether ideological and affective polarisation stimulate voter turnout in compulsory voting systems, a context often excluded from cross-national studies.
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There are theoretical reasons to expect that polarisation might be less influential in these settings. For example, compulsory voting is often argued to create a civic duty to vote, potentially reducing the impact of polarisation on turnout.
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❓ How do dissatisfied citizens experience a participatory process❓ In this article in @PolStudies based on 35 interviews, I find that highly populist citizens pay special attention to whether authorities take citizens and their decisions seriously. 1/4🧵journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.…
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Bjarn Eck retweeted
Nieuw onderzoek door @m2p_be en @SciencePoULB door Stefaan Walgrave, @jbpilet, Jonas Lefevere, @bjarneck & @LCJacobs89 obv NotLikeUs (notlikeus.be/) analyseert de kiesstromen, volatiliteit & campagne. Alle info 👇vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2024/09/09/…
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For @whogovernseu, I reflected on yesterday's federal and regional elections in Belgium whogoverns.eu/belgiums-2024-…
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The @eu_elections is now live! 🚀 EU&I is a research-based app that helps citizens find the party that best aligns with their views prior to the #EPelections. It takes only 6 minutes to answer 30 questions on key policy issues. Try it out 🔗👉 loom.ly/-IidGj0 #EUandI
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Existing work has found mixed results on the influence of income inequality on EU attitudes. In a systematic analysis of @ESS_Survey data between 2002 and 2020, we find no direct effects of static nor developing income inequality on EU attitudes.
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We show that citizens who care about inequality are particularly more supportive of further integration if their country is relatively unequal. The opposite holds for pro-redistributive citizens in relatively equal settings.
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Trust in the European Parliament (EP), in contrast, remains lower among egalitarian citizens irrespective of context. These results are robust for a range of alternative specifications.
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Dit soort uitspraken, telkens weer. Het maakt geen enkel verschil of je als partij van 50 naar 20 zetels of van 0 naar 20 zetels bent gegaan voor coalitiedeelname: je representeert exact evenveel kiezers. Die hebben daar dus ook geen ‘signaal’ over afgegeven.
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Het gaat in Nederland maar om één ding: kan je een meerderheid vormen met andere partijen? Ideologische verschillen kunnen dan een legitiem onoverbrugbaar obstakel vormen, maar niet ‘het signaal’ van de kiezer.
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Die kan namelijk slechts met één stem een partij uitzoeken, en zich dus niet uitspreken over kabinetsdeelname. Zeker niet als je daar vóór de verkiezingen ontzettend vaag over blijft.
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