@biotech_runner

I love biotech | I also love to run | Investor | Finance | Favorite marathons: Chicago, Berlin, Tokyo, Cape Cod, NYC

 Bay Area
Joined October 2022
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51Media
Roche acquires PathAI $750M UF + $300M milestones To me, this makes much more sense than drug discovery I question the utility of the platform once owned by Roche (à la FMI or Flatiron) but at least the price is not outrageous
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$NVS acquires Excellergy for $2B for it's allergy business Private company but glad to see deals still happening despite Iran war
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$NVS acquires pan-mutant‑selective PI3Kα inhibitor SNV4818 from Synnovation $2B upfront + $1B milestones Takes them out of running for $CELC and probably $OLMA ? Unless you go for a triplet in 1L?
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US 10-year yields below 4% 👀
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With $XBI nearing 130 and macro uncertainty (JGB yields/flight to gold) figured it's prudent to take some risk off the table Keeping investments in 2 buckets: 1) Commercial: clinically derisked, (continued) execution outweighs cost of capital concerns $mdgl $bbio $cytk
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2) Near term catalysts (mostly Q1) $olma persevERA giredestrant readout Q1 $ocul sol-1 readout $prld spec sit Incyte could acquire company for marginally more than $100M to acquire JAK2 V617F As always do your own dd
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Giredestrant iDFS HR = 0.70 (p = 0.0014) vs SOC in ER+ early stage breast cancer #ROG #OLMA Pretty impressive results from lidERA study
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Crazy how if $INCY could acquire $PRLD for ~50% premium that would be equivalent to paying out $100M option on the JAK2 (and they wouldn't have to pay any royalties) Just saying
Biotech Runner@biotech_runner4 Nov 2025
Replying to @biotech_runner
$INCY deal: $35M upfront $25M equity investment ($4/sh) Option to acquire program $100M Plus milestones and royalties Not bad for a preclinical deal given how much they need the cash
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3 reasons why I think there is additional upside in $OLMA despite recent bump 1. More Roche giredestrant data coming in 1Q26 (delayed from 4Q25) This is their persevERA study in 1L in combo with palbo - personally most interested in this readout
Biotech Runner@biotech_runner12 Sep 2025
$OLMA +75% in the last month to $550M market cap from $PFE clinical supply deal and also analyst note (Oppenheimer?) on pending $ROG persevERA / evERA readouts that are imminent 3 reasons why I believe there's more upside:
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2. Roche +7% share price on announcing lidERA results translates into $15B market cap vs $2B $OLMA MC post raise
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3. Positive Roche data may give BP enough confidence to swoop in - NVS and PFE are obvious suitors but could also include GILD A $5B deal still a steal if you believe $15B Roche market cap jump and if BP waits until a positive Ph3 that price is going to be multiples higher
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$PRLD busy morning of updates: - Preclinical deal with $INCY for JAK2V617F inhibitors - SMARCA2 program fail - CMO Jane Huang departs
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$INCY deal: $35M upfront $25M equity investment ($4/sh) Option to acquire program $100M Plus milestones and royalties Not bad for a preclinical deal given how much they need the cash
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$OCUL nice $475M raise @ $12.53 right before R&D Day
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$ROG Roche giredestrant hits PFS in 2L ER+/HER2- mBC in all comers and ESR1m Results from persevERA (1L ET-sensitive) pushed out to 2026 Some positive read-through to $OLMA
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$OLMA +75% in the last month to $550M market cap from $PFE clinical supply deal and also analyst note (Oppenheimer?) on pending $ROG persevERA / evERA readouts that are imminent 3 reasons why I believe there's more upside:
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more replies
(3/3) Everybody's favorite reason: M&A $OLMA clearly built to be bought (standalone single asset play) Highly interested parties would be: $NVS (pairs perfectly w Ribo) $PFE (drug supply deal, next gen CDK4) $GILD ex-GNE team plus expand from Trodelvy in TNBC
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Even if palazestrant only hits in 2/3L ESR1 mut that alone should justify $500M acquisition price for at least $NVS and $PFE since both already play in the ER+/HER2- mBC space
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