works on ZK, prev mir

Joined October 2018
I think this is a good point, though I'd push back in two areas: - The current issues with pre-IPO markets aren't a structural feature of perps. Imagine that you're an early Ant employee or investor overexposed to Anthropic equity. Shorting the perp and transferring your risk to someone who wants to be long isn't zero-sum. - I agree that tokenizing the underlying assets is good, but there's opacity and counterparty risk inherent here as well. A token representing ownership of an RWA will always be mediated by real-world legal and regulatory structures, and I think that there will continue to be demand for synthetics trading on non-custodial exchanges where outcomes are determined by code. You avoid the need to worry about the SPV underlying your token getting frozen in litigation.
Jeff drank a bit too much of his own Kool-Aid in this recent Odd Lots clip. I think it's important to clear up a distinction that makes all the difference. Democratizing access to wealth creation is NOT the same as democratizing access to speculation. Many of us genuinely want broader participation in attractive investment opportunities. The growing wealth inequality produced by the current system is tearing at the seams of society, something I've spoken about many times. But let's be clear: listing pre-IPO perpetual futures does absolutely nothing to democratize the wealth being created in private markets. I've seen this misleading narrative pushed repeatedly by perp DEXs lately, and it needs to be called out. A pre-IPO perp creates ZERO underlying wealth. It's a zero-sum contract before costs, and negative-sum after them. No capital flows to the company. No ownership changes hands. No new economic opportunity is created. Every long has a short. There is no free lunch in simply going long something before its IPO, and funding costs can even determine the outcome more than any price moves. TRADING access is NOT INVESTING access. In fact, in many ways pre-IPO perps are almost the antithesis of democratized access: They create the illusion of participation in private-market wealth creation, while actually offering retail a speculative instrument whose mechanics they are often poorly equipped to understand. The result is a playground for the FEW sophisticated traders who understand funding, oracle design, and liquidation mechanics to extract value from the MANY who don't. To give credit where it's due, Robinhood's efforts toward sourcing actual employee shares, placing them into SPVs, and tokenizing genuine spot ownership are much closer to meaningful democratization. That can unlock real economic value by allowing employees to exchange some of their expected upside for liquidity, while giving new investors actual economic exposure. A legitimate financial trade-off, without the funding-rate and liquidation shenanigans. I'm strongly aligned with expanding access to investment opportunities. And I believe advances in AI and blockchain can dramatically lower the barriers to discovering, structuring, and distributing them. But let's not BS ourselves that launching another zero-sum casino contract is moving the needle on wealth inequality. What would actually move the needle is bringing real capital formation and ownership onchain. Giving investors access to productive, illiquid assets like data centers, GPUs, and select startup investing, where capital can actually finance growth and share in the resulting value creation. These opportunities are harder to structure, underwrite, and bring to market, and we haven't seen many compelling implementations onchain yet. Hopefully this will change soon and, as the industry matures, we can direct more of our energy toward actually expanding access to wealth creation. Clip below. Was glad to see @tracyalloway push back on this framing, and to Jeff's credit, after this he does seem to walk back his original position somewhat.
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Brendan Farmer retweeted
People read one emotional Matt Green tweet about public key encryption, spent 0 seconds thinking about it, and decide to panic. Sure ECDLP will be broken with QC's one day. But there's so many levels to this being wrong to panic over. - 0 actual progress on attacking anything - We have tons of alternate plans available. - Quadratic advantage hash-based PKE - Lattices - Multivariate polynomials - A whole field of KEM's from fine grained cryptanalysis. (Fun fact, works even if P=NP) Sure you can wake-up and choose doomer and be wrong. We have decades of cryptography to draw from on for all the above options, AND how to build a lot of what we want from UX tweaks without PKE. PKE just made a lot much easier, and less web of trust routing like.
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It feels like one thing that would instantly nationalize a frontier lab would be the discovery of a classical algorithm that breaks ECDSA
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Brendan Farmer retweeted
Look at him, thats my Qual. Your what? My Qualitative! My vibe specialist. Look at him, you notice anything different about him? Look at his face. I'll give you a hint, his name is Jayden. He won a local poetry competition in bushwick! Yeah I'm sure of the vibe.
Quant firms are hiring idea guys, not quants I've been skeptical about the whole - software is commoditized, ideas are the moat argument But I've seen first hand the best quant and technical firms in the world hire thinkers, liberal arts grads, and generalists I predict the trend accelerates Letter from @AQRCapital below
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No representation for panprotopsychists! 😂 It's coherent to hold 1, 2, 3, you can argue that electrons/quarks/whatever base unit of matter have proto-conscious properties that combine to generate human consciousness.
the "Hard Problem" in a nutshell: 1. atoms aren't conscious 2. humans are made of atoms 3. humans are conscious 4. so at least one of 1-3 must be false Panpsychists say #1 is false Dualists say #2 is false Illusionists say #3 is false Materialists say #4 is false
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I get the argument for protected creative IP, but otherwise, is it consistent to believe that we're going to build a superintelligence that replaces humans in discovering new science, but user/company data from legacy companies is still going to be valuable? Curious what data won't be epistemically accessible to a superintelligence re-discovering/deriving on its own.
90%+ of the economy is trading below the value of its tokens
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Brendan Farmer retweeted
“It is meaningfully different to be a Zcash user today than literally six weeks ago.” Dev Ojha (@zkDragon) joins me to discuss Zcash’s security and UX improvements since Ironwood went live: - A quantum-recoverable, formally verified shielded pool - Proving optimizations - Onboarding links from @vizorwallet - Ledger integration for shielded ZEC
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The argument that OAI/Ant proposed a slowdown in order to use regulatory capture against open models seems weak. Unclear that the US can affect Chinese open models. But OAI/Ant are about to IPO and race dynamics force greater R&D spend and speculative use of compute. If you believe in RSI/ASI, you should be spending every cent that you make in revenue and every dollar that you can raise in debt/equity on compute. This adds risk, since expensive experiments or training runs might not pan out, and public markets are generally less tolerant of negative cashflow than VCs. Of course, the most reasonable explanation for the push for a slowdown might be the simplest: that safety/alignment/interpretability should catch up to model capabilities.
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This is amazingly terrible. The real f-sharp minor nocturne (which is good) coincidentally also uses triplets in the base, but the AI misses the polyrhythms that make the real one good. The tempo changes every couple lines, the melody and cadences are all incredible.
i gave GPT-6 Astra on maximum effort a oneshot prompt to compose and perform a chopin nocturne. it's...not great.
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Inside you there are two wolves
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Bond market idiot here, but why would Bessent announce that the treasury is intervening in the bond market but also announce that it's only buying $4b of bonds? Surely that can't be a meaningful size.
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The RSI discussion reminds me of Fritz Haber in When We Cease to Understand The World. Haber invented the Haber-Bosch process, which converts nitrogen from the atmosphere and H2 into ammonia that can be used as fertilizer. In the book, there's a fictionalized letter from Haber, who believes that he's doomed the human race, as once enough nitrogen enters the soil, there will be a runaway explosion of plant life that will suffocate every animal. The letter is allegorical, but it gets at something fundamental about a tendency to fixate on huge heroic processes that are perceived to be uncontrollable and inevitable. The tragedy for Haber was that his development of Zyklon-A/B was used by the Nazis to murder members of his family during the Holocaust. It wasn't the supra-human, uncontrollable process that was catastrophic, but the chemical weapon used by humans. I wonder if there's a parallel to AI and whether we should be less worried about RSI/ASI and more worried about things like more effective mass surveillance, autonomous weapons and cheap drones, the world drowning in slop.
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Have been following Terraform for a while - $1/kg of H2 would be amazing.
Last week the hydrogen electrolyzer team @terraformindies pulled off yet another first, the sustained production of >99.9% pure H2 from our vertically integrated, California-manufactured electrolyzer stack while it was coupled directly to a solar array at our Muroc desert test site. WTAF? Most commercial electrolyzers need carefully conditioned power from expensive battery-meditated backup systems. Ours runs directly off the sun. Clouds pass, the day turns to night, and we maintain purity from a stack whose Bill of Materials cost is well below $100/kW. Terraform's single-minded focus on capex reduction has allowed us to convert sunlight to hydrogen in an unprecedented demo at a cost below $2/kg. If that wasn't enough, we have a crystal clear plan of steady execution to push that cost below $1/kg in the coming years. Rather than linger on this point in response to experts-with-spreadsheets who said this was not only beyond my team, it was forbidden by known laws of physics, let me tell you a bit about how we actually pulled this off. We started building this test site in March. Once the panels and electrics were in place the CO2 team were the first to demonstrate production on site. Close behind them the electrolyzer team planned the logistics necessary to project substantial operational ability into a hostile test site in the middle of nowhere. It's no good to find you're missing a wrench half way through the day! Much of the test prep was completed before dawn, when the panels go live. The sun came up and the stack immediately started splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen. The team carefully monitored purity and flammability as the sun climbed through the sky. As designed, the stack warmed up and conducted even more power, maintaining solid production until late afternoon when the setting sun shaded the panels. Terraform's synthetic fuel system is uniquely designed to follow the sun and extract the maximum possible value from cheap solar panels. Hydrogen is a pernicious molecule. It leaks through and embrittles metals, burns almost invisibly at a wide range of mixtures in air, burns hot and fast and can easily undergo detonation transition, and has about half a dozen other spookily dangerous properties. My advice is to never work with it unless you absolutely have to. The Terraformer produces and consumes H2 in one compact discrete area with a minimum of complexity and fuss, and as expected this demo was completed in accordance with our rigorous safety standards and no unscheduled excitement! This successful demonstration was also a profound milestone for the team after a testing anomaly last December compelled us to finally rip off the bandaid and move decisively towards the "future design" with half the parts but considerable complexity in assembly. No-one else makes electrolyzers this way and we, more than anyone, know exactly why. And also how to do it anyway, translating directly into a unique cost advantage. A huge congratulation to Ken, Sherman, @ckalitin, Nikhil, Abdullah, and Aaron for their successful test campaign. Terraform's hydrogen and CO2 are the chemical precursors for synthetic methane and methanol, which we make in our own synthetic fuel reactor. Combined, we make oil and gas out of sunlight and air. We are breaking the geological and geographical monopolies on oil production. In the limit, Terraform will deploy these electrolyzers by the millions and they will all be plug-and-play with solar PV arrays. The Muroc smoke test campaign is far from over. We will win!
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Supporting open models unless they have "dangerous capabilities" means being against competitive open models, as coding/reasoning aptitude => hacking risk. I wonder if we'll see a licensing regime where weights are shared with certified providers - at least better than pure regulatory capture / state-sanctioned monopoly.
There’s been a lot of speculation about where we stand on open-weights models. We’ve outlined our views in full here: anthropic.com/news/position-…
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Brendan Farmer retweeted
I love OSS, but it's a red herring here. If a Chinese lab can serve a better model at a lower price, then consumers will switch regardless of whether the weights are open. Open weights do let US providers serve these models to consumers with regulatory / data privacy / geopolitical concerns, but the Chinese labs could in theory make this investment themselves and keep the weights closed (a la Project Texas, but I know that’s not a perfect comparison). The core issue is that raw inference is clearly becoming a commodity (and I expect eventually will resemble a public utility). The assertion that the Chinese labs are "dumping" implies that these US labs could otherwise capture enough profit from inference to sustainably finance repeated frontier model training, which is dubious given the strong competition. The long term value capture is in model *output* not the model itself, and I expect either algorithmic advances or consortiums to form to address capex.
Xi Jinping is not an OSS warrior. And yet he's now calling (as of 2 days ago) for open weight releases from Chinese labs. Why? Is he just altruistic? Is it a new Belt and Road initiative? Or does he want to compress private investment in the US Labs and push China to build a lead? It's worth thinking about these questions seriously. I don't know the answer, but if you're not even thinking about the geopolitical questions here, you're missing the most important technological battle of the decade playing out right before your eyes. Open source AI is great. It's got enormous positive externalities and as an investor and user of this stuff, it benefits me tremendously. I want it to continue, and I want the labs duopoly get eroded. But there's a bigger game being played here. To China, OSS is not an ideology but a piece on that chess board.
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Dreaming of buying a rack of GPUs and performing surgeries of unspeakable horror on the Kimi K3 open weights
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On the other hand, their competitors have raised billions of dollars only to build bad exchanges, so maybe it will, in fact, do it.
my brothers and sisters and Christ, $9 million ain’t gonna do it
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