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Urgent update on Storm #Charles (November 10) It’s becoming clear that we’re facing a serious situation in Madeira, continental Portugal, and Spain. Here’s what I can say with certainty: • Strong to potentially damaging wind and heavy rain in the Madeira archipelago As of early Tuesday morning, Charles was located far off to the west of Madeira, but as we go through the day, steady intensification and an increase in forward speed is expected. Madeira can therefore expect rain and wind to begin after sunset, with winds reaching peak intensity in the early morning hours of Wednesday. The IPMA has issued Red Warnings in parts of Madeira, for heavy/persistent rain and wind gusts to 140 km/h. • Excessive rain and a growing risk of damaging winds in continental Portugal and Spain After Charles gets past Madeira, it may continue intensifying as it curves northward towards the coast. Despite ongoing uncertainty on exactly where the center makes landfall, more and more model guidance suggests that the center will make landfall right around Lisbon, bringing the strongest gusts right in the western and southern end of the circulation. This means southern and central Portugal, especially coastal and mountainous areas, will face a risk of wind gusts widely over 100 km/h, possibly approaching 130-150 km/h close to the center. In addition, there is a possibility of a “sting jet”, which could produce locally extreme wind exceeding 150 km/h. ❗️We will only know tomorrow, right as Charles makes its final approach, where a possible sting jet will make landfall. Along with the wind, Charles is carrying a tremendous amount of subtropical moisture, which will be “squeezed out” in the form of very heavy rain and thunderstorms across both Portugal and Spain. This is posing a significant threat of flooding particularly in vulnerable areas. It’s honestly incredible that we find ourselves in another situation like this not even a full year after Kristin. That’s not to say this will be as severe as Kristin, I really hope not… but the Portuguese people need to recognize the danger that exists especially if extreme winds hit populated areas during the day. With all that being said, I recommend the following: • Have essential items at home such as non-perishable food and bottles of water • Park your car in a sheltered area if possible • Avoid travel on Wednesday unless it’s absolutely necessary • If you work in Lisbon, see if you can go home early or work from home entirely. If severe winds hit at rush hour, people will be put in unnecessary and avoidable danger. • If the winds truly become severe, avoid windows and move to a protected part of your apartment or house. As I mentioned, I’ll continue posting updates about this developing situation.