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Post-analysis of the Benchmark Model. I'd say it did pretty great! We projected 35 seats, and there are currently 30 seats with 10 outstanding. Demos performed slightly better in R leaning seats, but we identified the true tossup races accurately.
Benchmark Politics retweeted
IOWA DEM CAUCUS POLL: Early #2020Dem preference:
28% @JoeBiden
19% @EWarren
11% @KamalaHarris
9% @SenSanders
8% @PeteButtigieg
3% @AmyKlobuchar
3% @TomSteyer
2% @SenGillibrand
2% @AndrewYang
15 others included in the poll receive 1% or less
#IowaCaucus
monmouth.edu/polling-institu…
Biden and Sanders are both likely at their peak — complete name recognition.
Warren and Harris have room to grow as we have seen in primary polling.
Biggest thing though: no national vote. Trumps win was based on very specific EC outcome which came from popular vote loss
New Suffolk/USA Today Iowa Poll POST DEBATE
usatoday.com/story/news/poli…
Biden 24%
Harris 16% (!!!)
Warren 13%
Sanders 9% (!!!)
A few points we made yesterday seem to be gaining more and more traction: --->
---> - Harris and Warren have enjoyed nice numbers in the "wanting to learn more about" questions and it seems the debate has given them the spotlight they needed.
- There is undoubtedly a drop in Sanders' support after a rather unremarkable debate performance ---->
The snapshot of Harris and Biden re: busing as Sanders sits in the middle illustrates this.
-Biden holds steady and does not impress supporters ( "more than 4 in 10 said he did worse than they had expected")
usatoday.com/story/news/poli…
Completely true! Speaking from an aggregate standpoint you will see a distinct declining trend.
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CNN Poll POST DEBATE
(There is lots to digest here)
xitter.cf/ryanstruyk/status/1145…
Biden 22% (!!!)
Harris 17% (!!!)
Warren 15% (!!!)
Sanders 14% (!!!)
Buttigieg 4% (!!!)
Booker 3%
O’Rourke 3%
Notice all the (!!!)? Lots of widely swinging numbers here with Harris being the top move
Brand new @CNN poll of the 2020 race just out:
Biden down 10 points, Harris and Warren double their support since May
Biden 22%
Harris 17%
Warren 15%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 4%
Booker 3%
O’Rourke 3%
Klobuchar 2%
Everyone else 1% or less
-Sanders seems to have benefited heavily from 1) Lack of Awareness among general electorate (This was an oft argued point which seems to be coming to fruition) and 2) General distrust of "Clinton name"
-Buttigieg seems to have lost quite a bit of support despite --->
Benchmark Politics retweeted
New HuffPost/YouGov poll finds that the debate went well for Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris.
huffpost.com/entry/elizabeth…
Who’s stock is rising? Who’s is falling? Let us know what you think about night 1 of the Dem Debates so far.
Des Moines Register @DMRegister / CNN @CNNPolitics / Mediacom Iowa Poll
2020 Democratic Caucus
Biden: 24%
Sanders: 16%
Warren: 15%(!)
Buttigieg: 14%
Harris: 7%
Klobuchar and O'Rourke: 2%
desmoinesregister.com/story/…
The most surprising number in this poll to many is Warren as she continues to shows improving numbers in a field where the front runners continue to fall.
NPR News/Marist Poll
"Pro Choice": 57%
"Pro Life": 35%
maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-con…
NPR News/Marist Poll
Should abortion be allowed in cases of rape and incest?
Yes: 63%
No: 33%
maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-con…
NPR News/Marist Poll
Should pharmacists and health providers be able to opt out of surgical procedures or medications that result in abortion?
Yes: 42%
No: 52%
maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-con…