Professor of Political Science @uwmadison. Director of @electionscenter. First gen college grad. Native Ohioan. Also https://xitter.cf/t.co/nDLksfa2QQ

Madison, WI
Joined June 2009
There is too much news.
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So thoughtful to schedule this in the gap between the NLCS and the World Series
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: The governor's debate live statewide at 7 p.m. Watch live on WISN in Milwaukee, WKOW in Madison, WBAY in Green Bay, WXOW in La Crosse, WQOW in Eau Claire and WAOW in Wausau Also streaming live on the WISN 12 News app and WISN 12 YouTube and Facebook pages
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Barry Burden retweeted
FINAL #VoicesIntoVotes before the midterms! Barry Burden, Caroline Tolbert & Julie Persons discuss Futureproofing Democracy. Fri 10/23 | FREE catered reception 5 PM | Program 6 PM | UI Old Capitol @UiPolisci @jcauditor @CityofIowaCity @votehawk icfrc.org/events-1
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Five weeks from today — register now to join @ElectionsCenter in person to make sense of the 2026 midterms and American electoral politics more broadly elections.wisc.edu/page-even…
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This is not what happened in 2022. The polls were accurate. Speculators ginned up a narrative about a red wave that didn’t materialize politico.com/news/2026/10/15…
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For the unfamiliar: Elections, Public Opinion, & Voting Behavior is an organized section of the APSA. In addition to robust representation of behavior and opinion research at the APSA annual meeting, the section holds a stand-alone conference each year. connect.apsanet.org/s32/
Barry: Maybe explain to the world what EPOVB is...
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The fifth annual EPOVB conference will take place @UWMadison on May 13-14, 2027! Please submit your paper & poster proposals by the Dec 1 deadline. Supported by @epovb & @ElectionsCenter The proposal form & conference information are available here: elections.wisc.edu/epovb27/
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It feels good to reject an academic paper for the old fashioned reason of low quality rather than for inappropriate use of AI
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I beg our high quality media outlets to stop shilling for Amazon
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Trump this week: Again promised every adult $5,000 to vote for his party Offered another private dinner with people who buy the most of his crypto coin Used more government money to run campaign ads for himself
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Not much polling bias in recent midterm elections
The direction of polling error in recent years: * 2008: Unbiased * 2010: Unbiased * 2012: R bias * 2014: D bias * 2016: D bias * 2018: Unbiased * 2020: Even bigger D bias * 2022: Unbiased * 2024: D bias, less than 2016/2020 * 2025 (e.g. NJ/VA): Big R bias
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Funny for him to say House is a sure thing for Dems when Cook’s ratings have the party barely winning a majority if they split the toss-ups. The trick is that the toss-ups will not divide equally but we can’t say exactly which will go D versus R. thehill.com/homenews/campaig…
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My 2026 vote goes to the party that can tame blinding car headlights
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A steady flow of pro-Tiffany ads have been coming my way for weeks by mail, TV, & digital (much of it from super PAC & 501c allies). Crowley ad during last night’s Emmys was one of the first things I’ve seen from his camp.
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What risks could threaten the integrity of the 2026 midterms, and how can we prepare? Join election experts on 10/9/2026 for a timely discussion of the challenges ahead and how election officials, lawyers, journalists, and voters can respond. Register: go.wisc.edu/t38psa
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Barry Burden retweeted
since becoming president again, Trump has promised: -$5000 stimulus checks via "DOGE dividend" -$2000 stimulus checks via "tariff dividend" -$1000+ checks via "savings" from expiring ACA subsidies -$5000 "dividend" if Rs win midterms no checks have been issued
Trump: "If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate...I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000."
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That red line is something
NEW Economist/YouGov Aug 28-31: Canada 38% of Republicans view Canada as unfriendly or an enemy of the U.S., by far the highest level in the past decade (Link in reply)
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