Happiness_Investor retweeted
AI Stocks Collapse From Their Highs as Concerns Over OpenAI Revenue and Neocloud Debt Intensify
AI-related stocks have experienced significant corrections from ATH:
$WYFI | -73%
$POET | -72%
$CIFR | -67%
Kioxia | -64%
$AAOI | -63%
$WULF | -61%
$APLD | -60%
$CRWV | -56%
$WDC | -54%
$AEHR | -51%
$SKHY | -51%
$GLW | -48%
$FN | -48%
$ARM | -47%
$RMBS | -47%
$CIEN | -44%
Several factors are increasing pressure on AI infrastructure stocks.
On October 8, the Financial Times reported OpenAI's annualized revenue at $50B, around $20B below figures circulating in September.
The discrepancy raised questions about OpenAI's ability to finance its substantial long-term compute commitments.
$CRWV CoreWeave declined 15.5% on October 14, while yields on its 2032 notes exceeded 15%, highlighting growing credit concerns.
Gartner reportedly forecasts that over 80% of neocloud providers could cease operating independently by 2030, citing weak differentiation and rapidly depreciating infrastructure.
ASML's Q3 revenue miss increased concerns across the semiconductor supply chain.
Goldman Sachs has also warned that tighter credit conditions and rising financing costs could delay infrastructure projects, potentially creating an equipment order slowdown in 2027–2028.
Is this a temporary correction or the beginning of a deeper downturn?
Happiness_Investor retweeted
So spent some more time to look at more DBS conference material:
- "Two semiconductor giants, $AVGO and $INTC, both stated that breakthroughs in AI will keep demand for chip investment elevated for at least another 2 years. As current supply is insufficient to meet market demand."
- "Current chip production capacity is already far from sufficient to meet demand, and $AVGO CEO expects the shortage to become even more severe in the future." (HKEJ)
- "Regarding OpenAI, Hock Tan stated that the market had misinterpreted the company because its underlying fundamentals remained strong.
He argued that investors who sell based on a single short-term data point [$50B ARR] are "essentially no different from people gambling in a casino." (eg. Hong Kong Economic Journal):
- Commenting on investors' disappointment in OpenAI’s latest revenue forecast: "by itself, not that bad" on their $50B ARR. (Business Times)
And connected investors' disappointment to a failure to understand the business and excessive expectations like a casino.
- Tan rejected the proposition that OpenAI was overvalued. It quotes him saying:
"It’s almost like they are in a casino gambling" in regards to investors' unrealistic expectations and lack of understanding on OpenAI.
- Hock Tan if OpenAI and Anthropic achieve widespread market adoption: their attractiveness would substantially strengthen their bargaining power when raising capital.
But cautioned elevated global interest rates could make capital requirements a constraint for future growth.
- The real driver, he said, is whether frontier AI companies can create models that generate enough value and returns to justify the buildout. (which is fair)
- Most companies are wasting money on tokens. He also warned that most companies just waste money spending tokens like kids in a video arcade.
This part was the most badly worded by Hock Tan given he's running $AVGO.
But Western media commentary narrowed this down to:
- "Shortage of capital now, AI Investors are gamblers".
In the conference, Broadcom's CEO was actually defending frontier lab valuations and giving cautiously bullish statements about AI infrastructure demand.
While citing rising interest rates as a potential constraint that larger revenue or adoption could overcome.
Cherry picking quotes out of context disorts the actual messaging.
TLDR:
- Large and elevated AI semi demand, semi supply insufficient to meet market demand. At least another 2 years of elevated spend
- OpenAI valuations defensible, people who sell based on extreme expectations for the company are like casino gamblers.
- Tan stated markets had misinterpreted OpenAI's ARR because its underlying fundamentals remained strong.
- Frontier labs if they achieve widespread adoption / revenue would strengthen capital raising, which overpower headwinds from raising interest rates.
Lot of $AVGO CEO remarks looks heavily nuanced, which Western media coverage distored.
Happiness_Investor retweeted
Happiness_Investor retweeted
Woooow... $LITE CEO went out on Bloomberg today and stated:
Lumentum is "effectively sold out through nearly 2029".
From our perspective, "Completely Sold Out, there's no end in sight". With demand visibility from hyperscalers that carries them out into 2030, 2031.
The implications of these statements are enormous for photonics and remaining laser suppliers with capacity coming online like $SIVE, Sumitomo Electric, to $AAOI.
What a crazy bottleneck that's unfolding.
Happiness_Investor retweeted
$EUV Offers Broad Exposure Across the Photonics Stack, From Chipmaking to Optical Networking
AI infrastructure increasingly depends on how efficiently data moves between chips, racks, and data centers.
$EUV Corgi Lithography & Semiconductor Photonics ETF takes a broad approach to this theme.
It is an actively managed ETF investing across lithography, semiconductor equipment, inspection, photonics, and optical networking rather than focusing on one narrow niche.
AUM: $464M | Expense ratio: 0.35%
Largest holding is $TSM Taiwan Semiconductor at 11.3%, providing exposure to advanced chips used in silicon photonics, optical networking, and AI accelerators.
$ASML at 9.7% adds EUV lithography, while $AMAT at 6.2% and $LRCX at 6.1% supply deposition, etch, and materials-processing equipment used across advanced semiconductor and photonic manufacturing.
Direct optical exposure comes from $LITE Lumentum at 5.0%, which supplies lasers and optical components, and $COHR Coherent at 3.6%, with exposure to lasers, transceivers, optical materials, and components.
Process control: $KLAC at 4.7%, $ONTO at 2.5%, and $NVMI at 1.8% provide inspection and metrology systems that help improve yields as photonic devices become more complex.
Connectivity: $MRVL at 3.8%, $CIEN at 3.0%, $MTSI at 3.0%, and $CRDO at 2.8%, covering optical DSPs, coherent networking, SerDes, and high-speed data-center interconnects.
$GLW Corning at 4.4% supplies optical fiber, $AXTI at 1.8% provides compound-semiconductor substrates, $VIAV at 2.0% offers optical test equipment, and $FN Fabrinet at 1.8% manufactures optical communications hardware.
Happiness_Investor retweeted
The entire AI-Infra stack mapped out.
These are the best positioned businesses in every sector.
Data centers
$CRWV
$IREN
$ORCL
Top pick: $NBIS
Connectivity
$AAOI
$ALAB
$LITE
Top pick: $CRDO
Energy
$VST
$FLNC
$EOSE
Top pick: $BE
Supply Bottlenecks
$AXTI
$IQE
$COHR
Top pick: $WOLF
Thermal Management
$NVT
$MOD
$PH
Top pick: $VRT
Save this for later use.
Happiness_Investor retweeted
The boring AI infrastructure stack nobody talks about 💡
$VST — Generates always-on power AI data centers desperately need.
$CEG — Nuclear power giant signing long-term hyperscaler energy deals.
$GEV — Builds turbines and grid equipment powering AI expansion.
$VRT — Powers and cools high-density AI data center racks.
$ETN — Controls and distributes electricity from grid to servers.
$PWR — Builds transmission lines connecting power to data centers.
$FPS — Builds switchgear distributing power inside AI data centers.
Happiness_Investor retweeted
These photonic themes could be incredibly BULLISH opportunities until the end of this decade.
1. InP lasers: $LITE, $COHR and $SIVE are the 3 major western InP laser suppliers to the market right now (according to Morgan Stanley).
Lumentum's CEO says this shortage could end up worse than memory. They're running 5 InP fabs and still shipping 30%+ below demand. Nvidia putting $2B each into $LITE and $COHR says a lot.
NPO/CPO makes it even tighter, needing high-power CW lasers, which is exactly where $SIVE's InP laser arrays fit in. Currently mapped to the entire supply chain.
2. Switches: Custom ASICs are coming fast, and JPMorgan thinks they'll overtake GPUs in shipments by 2027.
Those clusters run heavily on Ethernet white-box switching, which is where $CLS can do incredibly well. It has 10 active 1.6T programs lined up.
$LITE and $COHR play here too through optical circuit switches, with $LITE targeting $400M+ OCS revenue in H2 2026, and $COHR having shipped OCS to 7+ customers.
3. Cables: $CRDO is doing really good with their AECs, and copper isn't going away from the rack anytime soon.
Add optical DSPs, retimers, ZeroFlap optics and the SiPh PICs from DustPhotonics, and you get a real full-stack connectivity name guiding $600M+ optical revenue this fiscal year.
4. Transceivers: 800G is ramping now, 1.6T really kicks in during 2027, and 3.2T is still ahead (~2028).
$AAOI stands out with its own lasers and US manufacturing in Texas, which lets it charge a premium. Capacity is going from ~200K to ~650K units a month by year end, and demand still outruns it through mid-2027.
If the FCC goes ahead with blocking new Chinese transceiver models, western suppliers get even more pricing power.
5. Connectivity silicon: Every optical link runs on DSPs, retimers, SerDes, TIAs and drivers. $SMTC stands out because it plays both optics and copper.
$ALAB brings retimers, fabric switches and AEC modules. $MRVL covers 1.6T DSPs, DCI modules and CPO, and now Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric for optical scale-up.
6. Foundry: $TSEM is one of the purest ways to play the SiPh buildout.
SiPh revenue hit a $680M run rate in Q2, up 270% YoY, and should cross $1B by Q4, with $1.3B of 2027 revenue already locked in.
US fabs give it extra pricing power, and it's in the room with the biggest names in the industry.
6. Scale-across: As AI training spreads across multiple data centers, the links between them become just as critical as the ones inside.
$CIEN is the clear leader here as the #1 DCI vendor globally, with revenue up 37% YoY to $1.67B and hyperscalers now over half of it.
Its coherent pluggables more than doubled, backlog is heading past $10B, and with Nubis it's now pushing inside the data center too.
⚡ Note: Back-end testing, substrates and packaging/EMS weren't considered.
They're more volatile, with lumpier orders and bigger cyclical swings, and they carry more margin risk with weaker pricing power through the cycle.
EMS runs ~12% gross margins against 60%+ for the chip designers higher up the stack.
I also left out bigger market cap names, since they're spread across other infrastructure themes and the focus here was pureplay.
Still worth the mention: $AVGO $ANET $INTC $AMKR $APH $PENG $AXTI $AEHR
Happiness_Investor retweeted
Happiness_Investor retweeted
$IREN generated $70.5M in AI Cloud revenue last quarter.
By August, ARR had already reached $1B and is set to surpass $4B by year-end.
That puts IREN on track to go from $70M in quarterly AI revenue to a $1B quarterly run rate.
The growth is about to explode.
Happiness_Investor retweeted
$BLLN: I think I found my next >20 bagger
Many of you know that I’m a very concentrated investor.
I went very heavy into $HIMS at $6-12 and then shortly thereafter into $IREN sub $5, with an average price of about $7.50.
Today, I’m still pretty much all-in $IREN since I think the stock has yet to reach its full potential, with plenty of gains still to be had.
That said, I’m always on the lookout for my next big “bet,” which prompted me to launch our Radar Report series on Substack and X.
The goal of the series is to explore stocks that are still flying under the radar and figure out whether any of them have a realistic chance of becoming major multibaggers.
The stocks I’ve deep dived on so far as part of the series:
$GROY / $REAX / $PGY / $SLDE / $BLLN
I might end up investing in each one of those in the future given their potential, but the one I’m most excited about is $BLLN, the most recent company we covered in a new Radar Report released yesterday.
There are certain companies that eventually become almost synonymous with the industry they dominate. Electric cars make people think of $TSLA, smartphones of $AAPL, while $NVDA has become the defining name in AI hardware.
I think early cancer detection could eventually have a name attached to it as well, and from everything I have seen so far, BillionToOne has a serious chance of becoming that company.
Before I explain why, this is not one of those biotech moonshots that spends hundreds of millions of dollars every year hoping that one experimental drug eventually makes it through clinical trials.
$BLLN is already a profitable diagnostics company with an established prenatal business, 22 consecutive quarters of revenue growth and another major business in oncology that is still in the early stages of scaling.
The technology behind all of this came from founders Oguzhan Atay and David Tsao, both of whom distinguished themselves at Princeton before pursuing doctoral work at Stanford and Rice. What they eventually built is surprisingly elegant for something that solves such a difficult problem.
Genetic testing requires DNA to be copied before it can be properly analyzed, yet that copying process distorts the original quantities because some fragments get duplicated more than others.
$BLLN figured out a way to measure that distortion and mathematically subtract it afterward, allowing the company to count incredibly small quantities of DNA with a level of precision that conventional methods struggle to achieve.
That sounds more complicated than it actually is in practice, and we break the mechanism down much more clearly in the full report.
In any case, the same basic idea is now being applied across several completely different markets.
$BLLN started in prenatal testing because it offered the quickest route to an established business.
Its UNITY platform can use an ordinary blood draw from the mother to screen the baby for genetic conditions that competing prenatal tests either cannot detect directly or struggle to detect with the same approach, which helped the company build its way to roughly 20% of pregnancies that actually undergo prenatal screening in the US.
The company then took essentially the same technology into oncology, because tumor DNA floating through a cancer patient’s bloodstream presents a very similar problem. The signal is tiny, surrounded by an enormous amount of normal DNA, yet finding and accurately measuring that signal can tell an oncologist which mutations are driving the cancer and whether a treatment is actually working.
The next step is MRD, or minimal residual disease, where $BLLN wants to detect microscopic traces of cancer left behind after surgery before they grow large enough to become visible on a scan. That product is expected to launch around the end of this year and moves the company one step closer to the market I find most interesting of all.
Early cancer detection.
Cancer would be a very different problem if a routine blood test could find a tumor while it was still at stage 1, when it is small, localized and in many cases still removable through surgery. The problem today is that these tumors shed almost no DNA into the bloodstream, while a screening test used on millions of healthy people also needs to avoid false alarms with extraordinary accuracy.
Nobody has properly solved both sides of that equation yet...
There is obviously a lot more to the story than what I’ve laid out here. In the full Radar Report, I go much deeper into the technology, business model, competitive landscape, regulatory environment, risks, valuation and the different markets $BLLN is ultimately trying to attack.
After spending the last few weeks researching the company from pretty much every angle I could think of, I genuinely believe this could become a >$100B company over time. At a market cap of ~$5B today, the potential upside for shareholders is enormous if that thesis proves right.
I’m not personally invested yet, since most of my capital remains concentrated in $IREN and I still think there is a major re-rating ahead there. But once that happens, $BLLN is currently the company I’m most seriously considering for my next major position.
If I eventually make that move, I’ll start covering the company on an ongoing basis, both publicly here on X and in considerably more depth for subscribers.
The full Radar Report, BLLN: Genomic’s Disruptive Dark Horse, is available to all X subscribers and Advanced+ subscribers on Substack.
Links to the full report in the comments below.
Wishing you all a great weekend! ✌️
Happiness_Investor retweeted
$LITE CEO: "Next year with the advent of CPO and NPO in 2027, our estimates are that we'll be undershipping demand...
By 70%. Literally 70%. So we can only supply 30%.
And this has caught us by supply. By 2029-2030, we get to some level of balance."
Source: Global Photonics Economic Forum Day 1 (7:57:15 - 7:58:00)
Any other players with laser capacity coming online are probably going to get more market attention soon.
Happiness_Investor retweeted
Photonics ETFs EUV, LYTE and LAZR target different layers of the stack.
Which portfolio offers the most attractive exposure?
Photonics is a critical part of AI infrastructure as data-center networks move from copper toward higher-speed optical links.
Corgi Lithography & Semiconductor Photonics ETF (EUV) takes the broadest semiconductor infrastructure approach. It invests at least 80% of assets in photonics and light-based technologies, including EUV lithography, chip manufacturing, inspection, and optical components.
Its largest holdings: $TSM, $ASML, $AMAT, $LRCX, and $LITE. This makes EUV less like a pure optical-networking fund and more like a semiconductor equipment and photonics portfolio. AUM: $464M | Expense ratio: 0.35%.
Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE) is much more concentrated on optical connectivity. Eligible companies must generate at least 50% of revenue from photonic or optical technologies.
Its portfolio: $LITE at 17.27%, Eoptolink at 13.52%, $COHR at 13.30%, Innolight at 13.30%, and $CIEN at 11.47%. Exposure centers on lasers, transceivers, optical modules, fiber, and photonic components.
LYTE also uses total return swaps to satisfy diversification requirements, adding some counterparty risk. Expense ratio: 0.65% | Reported AUM: about $242M.
Tema Photonics & Optical ETF (LAZR) follows the most research-driven and concentrated strategy. It targets optical connectivity bottlenecks plus selected AI infrastructure enablers.
Top positions: $LITE at 17.09%, Anthropic SPV at 11.13%, $AXTI at 10.82%, Aixtron at 7.40%, and Landmark Opto at 4.76%.
LAZR also has a unique private Anthropic exposure through an SPV, although this may make NAV less responsive because private holdings are revalued less frequently. AUM: $109.6M | Expense ratio: 0.75%.
Happiness_Investor retweeted
Leopold Aschenbrenner's complete updated holdings including newest added positions
Top tier:
• SanDisk $SNDK [Long, 28.0%]
• Micron $MU [Long, 27.5%]
Second tier:
• Bloom Energy $BE [Long, 9.4%]
• Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM [Long, 6.2%]
• Nebius $NBIS [Long, 6.1%]
Third tier (~2-4% each):
• CoreWeave $CRWV [Long]
• Core Scientific $CORZ [Long]
• STMicroelectronics $STM [Long]
• Applied Digital $APLD [Long]
• Riot Platforms $RIOT [Long]
• SharonAI Holdings $SHAZ [Long]
• IREN $IREN [Long]
• Taiyo Yuden [Long]
Moonshot tier (~0-0.9% each):
• CleanSpark $CLSK [Long]
• Keel Infrastructure $KEEL [Long]
• Solaris Energy Infrastructure $SEI [Long]
• WhiteFiber $WYFI [Long]
• Bitdeer Technologies $BTDR [Long]
• T1 Energy $TE [Long]
• Hive Digital Technologies $HIVE [Long]
• Babcock & Wilcox $BW [Long]
• ProPetro Holding $PUMP [Long]
• Vishay Intertechnology $VSH [Long]
• Cerebras Systems $CBRS [Long]
• Bloom Energy $BE [Call, $44.1M]
• Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM [Call, $23.9M]
• Infosys $INFY [Put, $5.2M]
New options bets (Sep 10-11, ~$315M in premiums):
• AMD $AMD [Call]
• Bloom Energy $BE [Call]
• CoreWeave $CRWV [Call]
• SK Hynix [Call]
• SanDisk $SNDK [Call]
• Intel $INTC [Call]
• Roundhill Memory ETF $DRAM [Call]
Private companies:
• Anthropic ~$5B
• Fluidstack $830M
• Source Foundry $500M
• MatX $500M
• Physical Intelligence $1B
Full exits:
• Nvidia $NVDA [Put] - Covered entirely
• Oracle $ORCL [Put] - Covered entirely
• Broadcom $AVGO [Put] - Covered entirely
• AMD $AMD [Put] - Covered entirely
• Micron $MU [Put] - Covered entirely
• Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM [Put] - Covered entirely
• ASML $ASML [Put] - Covered entirely
• Intel $INTC [Put] - Covered entirely
• Corning $GLW [Put] - Covered entirely
Summary: Every semiconductor hedge is gone. He's back with fresh call options on the same memory and compute names. Positions per his Q2 2026 13F which occurred before Citadel fire sale, private investment reports, and CNBC/FT on the new options activity
Happiness_Investor retweeted
"Potential FCC rules on optical transceivers more likely to come at 3.2T" - $LITE, $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE.
Morgan Stanley met with Washington officials:
- Restrictions would likely start at 3.2T modules made in China (800g/1.6T would be left alone)
- Potential restrictions would likely keep laser market tight (combining US DSPs + lasers could meet the 65% US value threshold per MS)
- Chinese modules could qualify if 65% of bill of materials is US content. Chinese modules using US DSPs and lasers are already near that level
- Analysts expect the positive impact on laser pricing... to be more important than any broad redistribution of transceiver market share.
- Analysts don't expect this to bottleneck hyperscaler AI buildouts, they name InP substrate supply as the key variable to watch (hello $AXTI )
TLDR:
Component suppliers in general are really positive. Like $SMTC probably winner here for TIAs/drivers (I don't think this was listed), maybe $MXL for DSPs too.
$AAOI another large beneficiary.
$SIVE is high-key alpha for laser beneficaries since they have "tremendous capacity" coming online, and that points to US foundries (they haven't formally disclosed location).
Since previous slideshows show 2 US foundries 1 Taiwan foundry (Win Semi) in terms of their capacity partnerships. And it's process of elimination.
From CIOE Channel checks it does look like they're starting to work with Chinese pluggable players, (so they'd avenues moving forward as US supply chain component beneficiaries).
Of course $LITE / $COHR would be happy.
TLDR: Western supply chains for Lasers / DSPs / TIAs / others are already bottlenecked but qualified capacity becomes even more important.
Happiness_Investor retweeted
$EOSE Great post on the NYSERDA announcement still to happen this month. Thanks $spearfishingcap And for those focused on the giant Brooklyn Navy Yard potential, don't forget about Sugar Maple Solar which is 20MW/160MWh which should also be announced. This one is owned by AES and would be a great notch in our belt.
Happiness_Investor retweeted
Happiness_Investor retweeted
⚡ 𝐔𝐏𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄: $MRVL Marvell Unveils Industry-First 2nm Optical Interconnect Demos for AI Data Centers
👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:
➤ 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗹 unveils industry-first 𝟮𝗻𝗺 optical interconnect demonstrations at 𝗘𝗖𝗢𝗖 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲.
➤ Company demonstrates first 𝟮𝗻𝗺 𝟰𝟬𝟬𝗚/𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗲 optical PAM4 technology.
➤ Marvell showcases first live 𝟮𝗻𝗺 𝟴𝟬𝟬𝗚 𝗭𝗥/𝗭𝗥+ with MACsec.
➤ New 𝟮𝗻𝗺 𝟭.𝟲𝗧 technologies include ZR and coherent-lite O-band demonstrations.
➤ Technologies are designed to enable future 𝟯.𝟮𝗧 data center connectivity.
➤ 𝗟𝗶𝗯𝗿𝗮 𝟮𝗻𝗺 coherent DSP powers secure 800G ZR/ZR+ optical transmission.
➤ Marvell demonstrates 𝟭𝟬𝟮.𝟰 𝗧𝗯𝗽𝘀 co-packaged optics with 200G-per-lane photonics.
➤ New optical technologies target higher bandwidth and lower 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿-𝗽𝗲𝗿-𝗯𝗶𝘁.
➤ Marvell will showcase 𝟯𝟴 advanced technology demonstrations at 𝗘𝗖𝗢𝗖.
👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:
➤ 𝟮𝗻𝗺 optical technology could improve bandwidth density and AI infrastructure efficiency.
➤ Faster interconnects address growing data movement demands between 𝗚𝗣𝗨𝘀, CPUs, and memory.
➤ 𝟯.𝟮𝗧 connectivity supports increasingly large and distributed AI computing clusters.
➤ Co-packaged optics could help overcome 𝗰𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗿 connectivity limits in AI fabrics.
👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁:
𝗫𝗶 𝗪𝗮𝗻𝗴, senior vice president and general manager, Connectivity Business Unit at Marvell:
“AI data center operators need optical interconnect technologies that deliver higher bandwidth, lower power and greater security across every part of the network,” said Xi Wang, senior vice president and general manager, Connectivity Business Unit at Marvell. “These ECOC demonstrations highlight how Marvell continually pushes the envelope of what is possible in optical technology to help hyperscaler and cloud data center customers achieve new levels of performance, efficiency and scalability to drive new waves of innovation.”








































