I tweet about valuations, stocks, and occasionally Bayesian stats
Joined March 2018
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Been surreal finding this around 60, watching it rise to almost 100, building an average position at 30, and now seeing sub 7 dollars. Net cash for the co is 136.5M per the PR, so idk if this will stay suppressed, but the tape needs to be respected. Can't feel good buying here
Big miss from $CDNL. Can't close for certain reasons immediately, but if this didn't bounce at least back to 15 by early December, I'll take the loss
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Big miss from $CDNL. Can't close for certain reasons immediately, but if this didn't bounce at least back to 15 by early December, I'll take the loss
For better and for worse, this couples' trips/village discourse has made this site as close to the old Twitter as I can recall. Gotta love how much people can disagree over a common situation. Still a long way to go
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Weak print, brutal selloff. Results came in a little above the low end of previous guidance, and guidance for Q4 was weak. Will do a deeper dive once I've had time to read the transcript. From a technical standpoint, 30 needs to be retaken or else it likely becomes a resistance level. From a fundamental standpoint, if the market throws in the towel on this, the high teens aren't out of question. Not terrible, but not nearly good enough. Need good progress on the SST front
$ENPH reports tomorrow. The SST update didn't generate much of a reaction in the price today. Tomorrow should be interesting. I'm feeling slightly pessimistic given how rates have moved, but I'm hoping to be surprised
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Big step
A major milestone in the development of the Enphase solid-state transformer. ⚡
We have successfully demonstrated the IQ Solid-State Transformer (IQ SST) converting 13.8 kV AC to 800 VDC while maintaining stable output through rapid load changes that simulate the demands of AI compute racks.
Performed at its research and development lab in Austin, Texas, the test system consisted of 132 power modules, with 44 connected in series on each of three phases, operating together as a single system. The system maintained a stable 800 VDC output through load steps simulating the fast-changing demands of AI compute racks.
💬 “Over the past 20 years, we've built and shipped nearly 90 million microinverters, gaining extensive experience in designing and manufacturing reliable power electronics,” said Raghu Belur, co-founder and CPO at Enphase.
“IQ SST brings that same approach to AI data centers, moving us closer to delivering power more efficiently to AI compute racks.”
Next up: testing at 34.5 kV in the coming weeks, with megawatt-scale demonstrations expected before the end of 2026 and customer pilots planned for 2027.
Read the full announcement: investor.enphase.com/news-re…
$ENPH reports tomorrow. The SST update didn't generate much of a reaction in the price today. Tomorrow should be interesting. I'm feeling slightly pessimistic given how rates have moved, but I'm hoping to be surprised
The fact that the leaders are holding up is somewhat encouraging. We might not get a full washout until they fall, but there's no guarantee they fall either. GLTA, and DYOR (10/10)
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8. Take care of your health, both mental and physical. Investments will rise and fall, but you can always recover money. Health isn't always as forgiving.
FWIW I'm not overly bearish generally, but the past few months have been brutal for everything but the leaders (9/10)
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7. Don't lever up recklessly. I will never outright recommend options. If you're going to dabble, keep the portion of assets light, and keep the duration long (i.e. LEAPS). Being wrong is the worst, but being too early doesn't feel much better and doesn't help your wallet (8/10)
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6. Don't be afraid to buy back in when the tide turns. Lesson 5 helps with this. This was arguably my biggest lesson from 2022. I was slow to buy back in and didn't get back to fully invested until mid 2023. I ended up just fine, but I def left some money on the table (7/10)
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5. Keep researching/valuing companies. No one knows how low multiples will get, but once the tide starts turning, you'll want to have your list of names ready to go. Do the work now so you can act more confidently later (6/10)
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4. Check your realized gains YTD. Assuming you have some, think about harvesting losses. If there are names you're comfortable letting go and don't feel like you'd want to buy back into that happen to be in the red, use now as a good chance to offset taxable gains (5/10)
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3. Plan out expenses for the next few months. IMO 6 is the minimum, but only you know your needs. The main goal from here is to not be a forced seller. Sure, some names won't recover in a reasonable amount of time, but a lot will. You never want to be a forced seller (4/10)
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2. Don't beat yourself up right now. Rates didn't spike all at once. They've been rising for a while, and stocks have gone up for much of that time. R/R may have worsened, but the best general long-term trade is to long the market (3/10)
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1. Don't obsess over individual price action today. I'm not saying ignore it either, but much of the action on days like today is simply higher vol names getting hit the hardest. The more junky a stock is viewed as, the worse it did. Keep it simple (2/10)
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Not my worst day in terms of % or $, but it feels like my worst. The other bad days were usually after major run-ups. Thankfully this isn't my first rodeo. Here are 8 lessons I've learned that might be helpful in case your investments have got you down (1/10)
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IMO the market is heavily discounting how successful the acquisition will be. Not saying $CDNL will exceed expectations, but R/R remains skewed up. GLTA, and DYOR (2/2)
Solar in particular has traded poorly these past few weeks. AI-infrastructure in general has had a rough recent period. The tape needs to be respected, and I don’t know when this drawdown ends, but when the tides turn, I see upside for $SEDG. GLTA, and DYOR (22/22)
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