JCT retweeted
From the FT:
"Investors are racing to buy credit default swaps to protect their portfolios in the event the AI boom unravels....
In a sign of investors’ increasing unease over the borrowing binge, the cost of buying CDS on many AI-linked companies has hit record highs this month."
#economy #markets #tech #bonds @ft
JCT retweeted
Elon Musk in new upcoming interview says AI and robots will need to fix the deficit:
"There's no way we were gonna solve the deficit from within the government. The only way we're going to solve the national debt is with AI and robots. We're not gonna solve it by trying to save our way there. The appetite to cut spending is not there at the presidency, the House, the Senate or the judiciary. Basically, no one in authority in the government whatsoever — with maybe a few rare exceptions.
Maybe if the president made that his primary goal, we could do that. If you try to solve the deficit and stop wasteful spending, you make a lot of enemies. President Trump likes to be liked. He doesn't like people calling him, being upset about ... some funding being stopped.
I kinda got carried away, basically and was gone for too long from my companies. What I should have done was be more in the background ... and probably only had it last for a month or two. I should have gone back and focused on AI a little sooner than I did."
The full podcast interview with Walter Isaacson drops this Tuesday.
China does not need to build better AI than America. It needs to make American AI unprofitable.
The playbook is older than the technology. Flood the market with a cheaper version until the domestic industry collapses. China ran it with steel. Ran it with solar. Ran it with semiconductors.
Not a better product. A cheaper one. Good enough at a fraction of the price beats best in class at full cost.
AI is next.
Open-weight models. Lightweight. Inexpensive. Already inside a third of corporations. Not because they outperform. Because a CFO looked at the benchmark gap, looked at the price gap, and made the only decision capitalism allows.
The rational one.
China’s weapon is not Chinese technology. It is American capitalism.
The market has no loyalty. No patriotism. Only price sensitivity. Every procurement decision is a vote, and the vote always goes to the invoice.
American AI companies are valued on one assumption. That corporations will keep paying premium prices for premium intelligence. China’s strategy is to make that assumption false. Not by outbuilding. By undercutting.
Creating value and capturing value have never been the same thing. AI might be the first technology powerful enough to prove it at civilizational scale.
Roughly 40% of the S&P is tied to the AI bet. The majority of recent GDP growth has come from AI capital expenditure. America concentrated everything into a single sector and left that sector’s economics undefended.
The distance between AI boom and American recession is one quarter where enough CFOs make the same rational decision at the same time.
The technology race was the distraction. Who has the biggest model, who wins the benchmark, who reaches AGI first. None of that matters if the business model underneath it cannot survive being undercut.
A technological advantage that cannot sustain its own economics is not an advantage. It is a head start with no finish line.
America built the most advanced AI on Earth.
It has not yet built an economy that survives someone selling it cheaper.
And the country that figured that out is not trying to catch up.
It is trying to make catching up unnecessary.
JCT retweeted
And Bitcoin? A new 4-year cycle bull market could be underway, based on its power law patterns. There doesn’t seem to be a narrative, but then again, bull markets rarely start with one.
And she out.. sorry @Scaramucci
JCT retweeted
A recent warning said AI could break Bitcoin “soon,” prompting “bunker mode” talk. No such attack exists. I made this video to explain why there’s no need to panic, about this or quantum computers, and what it means in light of Russell Impagliazzo’s five cryptographic worlds. 🧠
JCT retweeted
Michael Saylor warns that artificial intelligence could destroy significant value in companies dependent on human labor and talent, creating major risks for equity investors.
He predicts capital will increasingly rotate toward scarce assets that AI and robots cannot produce more of, including real estate, gold, and Bitcoin.
“Capital investors are going to look for things that the robots can’t make more of.”
Another example of SI taking jobs away…
Anthropic will pay you $3,850 a week to do AI research with their team.
You don't need prior experience to apply.
The Anthropic Fellows Program:
• $3,850/week (about $66K over 4 months)
• About $15K/month in compute, paid for
• Mentored by Anthropic researchers
• 4 months full-time, with a chance to extend
• The goal is a real public output, like a published paper
Their words: "regardless of previous experience."
The deadline for the January cohort is Oct 18. That's 6 days away.
Most people will see this after it closes.
Bookmark it and send it to the smartest person you know.
Link below 👇
alignment.anthropic.com/2025…
JCT retweeted
BREAKING: TREZOR TO TERMINATE RESELLER AUTHORIZATIONS AMID HARDWARE WALLET SUPPLY-CHAIN ATTACK CONCERNS
Trezor is significantly reducing its authorized reseller network following the recent Ledger supply-chain attack.
In a letter to partners, Trezor announced:
- Existing reseller authorizations will expire January 1, 2027.
- Affected resellers can continue selling remaining inventory through the holiday season but will receive no new stock.
- Trezor will implement stricter oversight of how devices are sourced, stored, and handled.
- The company emphasized there is no evidence that any Trezor devices have been compromised.
Trezor says the move is a precautionary measure to reduce supply-chain risks and protect customers’ Bitcoin.
JCT retweeted
Absolutely incredible.
Just 10 stocks have driven 70% of the S&P 500’s gain since March 30th.
These stocks have added +16 percentage points to the index’s +23% gain over this period.
Nvidia, $NVDA, has contributed the most, accounting for 13% of the S&P 500's gain, or +3 percentage points.
This is followed by Micron, $MU, Apple, $AAPL, and Microsoft, $MSFT, each accounting for 9% of the S&P 500’s advance, adding +2 percentage points.
Return contributions of AMD, $AMD, and Alphabet, $GOOGL, have been 8% and 7%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the remaining 490 stocks have accounted for just 30% of the S&P 500's gain since March 30th, adding +7 percentage points.
Diversification is dead.
JCT retweeted
Why the geography of the attack matters, too.
Something about the Ledger Nano X implant attack deserves more attention. According to Bitquery, $102M was drained from 324 wallets. Almost 78% of the stolen assets were on TRON, predominantly USDT, with some USDC on other chains.
Now consider Kim Zetter's latest reporting. Cellular data from the implants reportedly points to exfiltration servers in Hong Kong. At least 90 devices were already communicating with this infrastructure in June, months before the actual theft. Meanwhile, compromised wallets appeared in distribution channels across Malaysia, Thailand and Japan. What interests me is the geography of the attack and the assets involved. Stablecoins, particularly USDT, have become an important part of Asia's cross-border payment and settlement economy. Hong Kong is positioning itself as a major hub for precisely this kind of financial infrastructure.
So we have a supply chain apparently compromised at scale, cellular infrastructure connected to Hong Kong, months of collecting wallet credentials and a theft overwhelmingly concentrated in dollar stablecoins. I'm increasingly interested in whether the attackers were specifically looking for wallets holding stablecoins rather than simply harvesting whatever they could get. There is no proof yet that Hong Kong stablecoin holders were deliberately targeted. But I think the connection between the logistics network, the geography of the mobile infrastructure and the composition of the stolen assets deserves a much closer investigation.
🤖 Made with AI
JCT retweeted
Q: You said Zacharia is an attorney. Where did she pass the bar exam? What state?
ZACHARIA: When I moved to China
JCT retweeted
Live footage of Katie Zacharia trying to get through her first press briefing this morning:
JCT retweeted
🚨: @Trezor Joins Hack
It’s has officially extended beyond @Ledger with @Trezor wallet devices also being found tampered.
Get off @Trezor now!!!!
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The recent tampering incident involves only Ledger devices sold via reseller CryptoBilis; Trezor states there are no confirmed cases of tampered Trezor devices from CryptoBilis or other resellers.
x.com/Trezor/status/…
x.com/Trezor/status/…
trezor.io/support/troubl…
beincrypto.com/is-any-hardwar…
JCT retweeted
🚨 If you don’t want to open up your Ledger just yet, here’s a list of hardware wallets and their weights:
⚖️ Hardware Wallet Weights
Ledger
• Nano X – 34 g
• Nano S Plus – 21 g
• Flex – 58 g
• Stax – 44 g
• Nano Gen5 – 46 g
Trezor
• Safe 7 – 45 g
• Safe 5 – 23 g
• Safe 3 – 14 g
BitBox
• BitBox02 – 12 g
• BitBox02 Nova – 13 g
OneKey
• Classic 1S – 20.5 g
• Pro – 65 g
• Pro 2 – 53 g
Blockstream
• Jade Core – 20 g
• Jade Plus – 30 g
Keystone
• 3 Pro – 103 g
SafePal
• S1 Pro – 126 g
Coldcard
• Q – 175 g
NGRAVE
• ZERO – 180 g
ELLIPAL
• Titan 2.0 – 158 g
⚠️ A serious warning following the @Ledger incident in Southeast Asia:
We cannot rule out the possibility that other Ledger devices, or even hardware wallets from other manufacturers, may have been compromised elsewhere in the world.
Buying directly from the manufacturer is certainly safer than buying from a reseller, but even that cannot guarantee 100% security.
Supply chains can be infiltrated. Employees can be compromised, bribed or deliberately planted by attackers.
There is currently no evidence of a worldwide compromise, but the incident demonstrates how dangerous supply-chain attacks can be.
Never confuse a trusted brand with guaranteed security.
Stay vigilant. Self-custody comes with responsibility. 🔐
JCT retweeted
The Netherlands just backed down on taxing unrealised gains. Not because it was unfair. Because the money started moving before the law existed.
Their 2028 plan was to tax paper gains every year, whether you sold or not. After the backlash they switched to taxing gains when you actually sell, at 36%. Completely different thing.
Norway ran the experiment for real. The wealth tax went to 1.1%. In 2022, 261 people with serious money left. In 2023, another 254. Norway's response was not to cut the tax.
It was to tax the exit. 37.8% on unrealised gains above 3 million kroner, on the way out the door.
That is the sequence every time. Tax the wealth, watch it leave, then tax the leaving.
Britain is at step two. The Budget is on 28 October.
they didn’t hack ledger. they didn’t exploit the code. they BOUGHT the company selling you the device. $86 million gone
a company called CryptoBilis was an authorized ledger reseller in southeast asia. trusted. legit. sold ledgers for years
a random chinese company quietly bought CryptoBilis from its malaysian owner
made the original owner sign a confidentiality agreement. he couldn’t tell anyone the company was sold
same brand name. same website. same “authorized reseller” badge. but different people behind it now
the new owners started opening every ledger device before shipping
soldered a tiny spy chip onto the board inside. repackaged it. sealed the box. shipped it
the device looked normal. felt normal. worked normal
but the spy chip was silently capturing your private keys the moment you set it up
your seed phrase was sent to the attacker before you even finished writing it down
hundreds of wallets across ethereum tron and bitcoin. all drained
the guy who lost $5.3 million said “i did everything right. no leverage. no memecoins. i stored my funds on a hardware wallet like we’re all told to”
he was right. he did everything right
except his device had a parasite inside it that he couldn’t see
ledger has now told CryptoBilis to stop all sales. told recent buyers NOT to set up their devices
mark karpelès posted photos of the implant. normal board on top. spy chip below
the most dangerous attack in crypto this year wasn’t a line of code
it was a business acquisition































