It is probably a given, but I will still say it 'Personal Views only.' General stuff on whatever catches my fancy.

Joined October 2009
Written something after a good long while. balasubramanianv.substack.co…?
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I'll add a couple of points to this one 1. Memory is cyclical -- AI buildout for 10 years is the only thing that can change this. And that seems unlikely. 2. Smartphones today are "good enough" for most folks. Upgrading every 2 years is not necessary for 90% of folks.
A piece of advice for smartphone users around the world: If your current phone still works fine and you don’t have a strong desire to upgrade, I suggest holding onto it for now. With memory prices continuing to rise, smartphone costs and prices are entering an absolutely insane phase, and they could keep climbing. Phones are becoming so expensive that many ordinary consumers simply can’t comfortably afford them anymore. So if your phone still works, keep using it. If you can hold out for another year, do it. If you can keep it for another two years, even better. There’s little reason to pay increasingly ridiculous prices for relatively minor annual upgrades. Wait it out. Maybe in a few years, when memory prices and the smartphone market finally return to more reasonable levels, we’ll see truly sensible smartphone prices again.
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This is a nice statement, though not really true. This is a fixed rate mortgage, with almost no penalty for refinancing lower. In other words, a fixed rate mortgage with an option to terminate at a lower rate for the borrower with no equivalent option for the lender!
First in my bloodline to see lower mortgage rates in India compared to America.
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The correct question is "Why isn't the airline doing an auction to solve this problem -- Offer to pay for someone to get kicked off, and keep increasing the payoff till someone accepts it? Why should only customers have "no choice"?" Free markets for the win!
would you rather pay, say, 35% higher airfares so that once every 500 flights you might not get bumped?
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Tata's SuperApp strategy has been quite something! On paper, they have everything lined up, from electronics retail and groceries, to cars and plane tickets. In practice -- Its a great case study to showcase why conglomerates have a "Discount" vs pure play names!
Replying to @tata_neu
@tata_neu this is regarding your points strategy. With no email notice and some change in policy (which was clearly not communicated enough to customers) large number of points have been wiped out. The Tata neu experience hasn’t been great from the start. It’s only getting worse.
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Ouch -- The move from 92 to 96 was pretty harsh. Two points. 1. FCNR (B) Deposits inflows have moved the needle. Back to 94.5 2. The weakness was exacerbated by Equity outflows. If that slows down, rupee should "weaken less" (1/3)
Apropos of nothing, the Rupee hit 92 to a dollar. To be clear, this is not a terrible thing. Rupee weakness merely indicates that exporters are more incentivised than importers. Its just odd that the folks who bemoaned this dont seem mad anymore.
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This is complicated by two counters 1. The oil price spike is going to be a significant burden 2. India still broadly needs to export more goods and services. AI disruption makes that a bit dicey (2/3)
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Finally, with a weakening rupee and higher inflation as a result, two things "should" happen. 1. People would spend less and import substitute 2. Interest rates should go up as inflation goes up. Both these should support the rupee (End)
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One of the things I've been re-thinking is the value of "What Can Law accomplish?". Can Law reduce the loss that is made by a business. And over time, I've come to the view that Laws can only transfer losses from one party to another. (1/2)
I must update my five-year-old number.
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We can try to "allocate" losses from those who "didn't sign up for the loss" to those "Who took the risk knowingly". But in practice, this is hard, and difficult. The main criteria I'm looking for is not Haircuts, but instead, speed of resolution, consistency and "fairness" (End)
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I would argue that this is just a realignment of bond yields. With US yields topping 4%, a 3% gap between US and Indian yields is not out of the norm. Generally, the period from 2020 to 2025 has been the exception. The volatility is natural till we get the higher base.
The RBI has come under fire twice in recent weeks for its communication - an early close to its dollar deposit window and then significantly more hawkish MPC minutes than the policy itself. Markets whipsawed in both instances. The RBI will likely argue that markets just read the wrong signals. And it is certainly not alone in grappling with communication issues in an uncertain environment. But does it need to review its own messaging as well? This week's India File: reuters.com/world/india/rbis…
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One caveat -- This also assumes that nominal growth will stay high globally. If that assumption breaks down, I would expect yields to head back down.
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Insightful take -- I'd also add as a comparison, that American banks took the JV route in China as well (not necessarily by choice). But the geopolitical complexities have made this a complex dance. Only time will tell whether history repeats, rhymes or is just not an indicator.
This Bank of America investment in Jio Credit is a big one. For many reasons. The institutions, yes, but also an interesting turn in the history of the Indian financial sector. Bear with me. After a burst of expansion in the early 2000s, most American and European lenders retreated from India — partly because of their own mistakes (Citi Financial, HSBC’s micro finance play, Standard Chartered’s corporate mishaps) and partly because tighter global capital rules post the GFC. India then went through its own credit boom and bust cycle. It’s now back in what I would call a ‘controlled boom’, with credit growing without chunk risks and chunky delinquencies in check. This has brought back foreign lenders. HSBC chose to go back on its own (partly because it has an Indian banking veteran at the top), Japanese banks came in with big bank and non bank investments(Yes Bank and Shriram), as did Emirates. Fairfax is waiting in the wings with a potential IDBI deal. And now Bank of America does a Jv with Jio Credit which has recently stepped up growth. The big difference is that most foreign institutions are now coming in via JVs, banking on crucial local expertise in lending. Building from scratch is no longer viable in a mature Indian market. Actually if you go far back enough, JVs were the original way that foreign financial institutions came into India (think Kotak - Goldman, Merrill lynch - DSP, Insurance JVs) . But the mood had then turned to full direct play, which didn’t work for most and now back to JVs. So full circle…
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I am not sure I agree. I am reminded of a conversation wtih my barber in IIT Kgp 2 decades ago. The barber was complaining that his son could make just as much money (probably more) apprenticing to him as he could make in the city as a construction worker (1/2)
The rate for Porter for shipping something small on a bike over 10 kms in peak Bangalore traffic was Rs 100 today. One dollar. For 40 mins of a back-breaking ride, wait times, petrol costs, and platform cut. Got booked in 2 mins due to massive oversupply. When you kill rural safety nets like MNREGA, distress migration floods cities. This 'gig economy' is built upon rural desperation.
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But "kids don't listen. The lure of the big city takes them away" was his comment. He was right on both fronts. The money at the barbershop would have been similar, and the cost of the city is way higher. But the value of new experiences is priceless. They young know this. (end)
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Request for inputs --- can anyone suggest how the pandemic led to changes in Financial regulation / law. For example, India's netting legislation being passed in September 2020 surely was no co-incidence. It freed up capital for banks to lend!
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This is valid...I think there needs to be a clarification to the clarification -- When the CEO of the entity says X and the Group disclosure is Not X, only one can be true at a given point of time.
What baffles me is the fact that a listed co #AdaniEnterprises makes an emphatic denial to the stock exchanges this week, and then my colleague @ari_maj breaks this mega #exclusive about their aviation biz CEO writing to @AAI_Official last month saying just the opposite. It shows total disregard to media but more importantly to disclosure norms. I can bet @SEBI_India will do nothing. Forget others, but what about millions of shareholders. It's not just one instance. Many cos even today make a mockery of such things.
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On global exposure for Indian residents. I've seen folks both evangelize this as well as folks pooh pooh the whole thing. The reality is somewhere in between. Purely from a financial theorist perspective, having as broad a portfolio as possible is most efficient (1/n)
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All these add up. And there's proxies for international diversification which do exist. These could be commodities (Gold, etc). But they could also be "hedges". For example, changing your purchasing mix from iphones or investing in a foreign degree. (5/n)
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So generally, the nuance that's lost in the twitter fights can be be boilded down to "what percentage of wealth can you diversify internationally, and does it make up for your "friction"?" There's no one right answer for that question. (End)
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