Probability is the logic of science. E.T. Jaynes Probability works in evidence-based analysis that are closed & bounded environments. Man-made systems optimize based on these probabilities which fragilize the system. Probability fails in non-evidentiary analysis. This simply means that probability should only be used for evidence-based analysis in closed and bounded environments. Eg games And a non-evidentiary process or something that is optimized from some man-made system this tool is probably inefficient. I would argue probably very harmful as we've seen with medical science, food analysis, and overall optimized areas through the weaponization of probability with regards to science. So failure to reject is not good enough because ultimately the academics or the modern intellectual have used probability to weaponize desired outcomes under the guise of probability is the logic of science. There is science looking at the stars and there is science applied to modern Medical or food applications. One is observable evidence with no influence on what it's observing. E.g.. looking at the stars The other, medical or food application science does influence the future evidence through feedback loops. They are not the same science. Why. Because the impact of the evidence can be extremely misleading because you're likely to use it in medical or food applications unlike trying to alter the stars. Simply once you alter part of the system you're not looking at the same science as you were when you initially started. It's Schrodinger's cat. It was alive but you probably killed it with science probability based evidence. Star science versus Medical Science ain't the same science. The point is you simply cannot use failure to reject or evidentiary probability analysis as a means to evaluate harmful components within a system based on evidence from you're analysis. It's likely very harmful over the long term. And probability does more harm than good in these environments. You're not going to see the evidence because the evidence hasn't emerged yet from the process you've just optimized. Time just hasn't shown you yet the harm you created from your optimized evidence-based probability system. Probability creates artificially a a closed and bounded environment that works at the local like with games but fails and is extremely harmful at the universal. Applied to one individual no big deal Applied to the entire system because of the optimization factor with the evidence-based analysis can become incredibly harmful. This is the ergodic problem that NNT talks about in Incerto. Simply probability should be used in very very certain situations but the moment you use it to optimize the system that's when the real harm begins. You can use it against the casino to try to do bet optimization. But applied to real-world Medical Science ain't the same thing. In particular when it's used to validate things like the benefits of drugs. You're dealing with multidimensional multiplicative interactions that emerge over time and can be harmful from the optimization of these Medical benefits. Time simply hasn't shown you the harm yet from your optimized benefits. Academia teaches to focus on evidence. Business/government uses that against us. Where's the evidence? Where's the proof? We think we're acquiring knowledge using reason & logic. We're just being indoctrinated to think the academic science way. Then they use it against us. The point is, that probability is the wrong tool to use. It's overused. It is not a Swiss Army knife it is a surgical tool that should be used in very limited situations. But because we've been indoctrinated that it's the foundation of reason and logic it has been weaponized. Probability is an optimization tool applied in modern society when we look back will has done more harm than good. It's the foundation of the LLMs. Probability is more like a nuclear warhead.

Emotionally manage randomness by letting go of linearity. Most of your aggravation comes from trying to jam the world into the way you think instead of you jamming yourself into the world Aggravation comes from forcing the way you think. A twist on NNTs idea with randomness.

Scars have to be earned, not artistically created. You can never artistically create something on the outside that wasn't earned on the inside. A twist on Stokes's theorem on manifold.

You know you're in the zone when there's not much to say. Your work speaks for itself. It's an alignment not with words but an emotional foundational strength. You're seldom fazed by other people's behavior because you just manage it. You don't engage it. Find your process.

Be careful of the absolute because it will absolutely take you out. Your belief in the absolute will absolutely take you out.

For most their life has become their phone. The phone doesn't live inside them, they live inside their phone. You've been phoney with your phone.