Author: 'Margaret Thatcher & the Middle East' @CambridgeUP; @IIR_Prague ; @RoyalHistSoc; New book project on UK-US Middle East policy from Carter to Bush.
Prague, London and Jerusalem
Joined March 2009
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Israelโs demand to close the historic British consulate in East Jerusalem suggests it views the UK Labour government as the ringleader of European sanctions.
When Europe imposed sanctions on Israel in 1982 after its invasion of Lebanon, it also lashed out at the UK. The problem for the current Israeli government is that making an example of Britain is unlikely to deter other countries from jumping on the sanctions bandwagon.
My latest in @ForeignPolicy in the response below ๐.
Trump has endorsed Netanyahu. The Midas touch in reverse? Ask the Canadians and the Hungarians. Bibi will see it as an electoral boost but you have to wonder how many Israelis will be swayed by a man who is so clearly out of his depth and tanking so spectacularly.
haaretz.com/israel-news/elecโฆ
Azriel Bermant retweeted
ื ืคืืฉืชื ืืืื ืขื ืืืืื ืืืื, ืืฆืืืช ืฉืืืชืงืคื ืืืืืจืืืช ืืืื ืคืืจืขืื ืืืืืื ืืืืืื ืืฉืืืจืื.
ืืฉืืชื ืืืื, ืืื ืขื ื"ื ืืืขื ืงืจืื, ืืฉืืขืชื ืขื ืจืืขื ืืืืื. ืขื ืืคืื ืื ืืจื ืฉืื ืชืฆื ืืฉื ืืืืื. ืขื ืืืืืช, ืขื ืืื, ืขื ืืื ืฉืื ืืคืงืืจื ืืืชื ืคืฆืืขื ืืฉืื.
ืืืฉื ืืช 65. ืืื ืืืืจื ืฉื ืคืืจืขืื ืืืืืื ืืืืื ืฉื ืื.
ืืื ื ืฉืืจ. ืืืื ืจืืชื.
ืืืกืืช ื ืชื ืืื-ืกืืืืจืืฅ ืืคืื ื ืืืืื ื ืฉื ืืืจืช ืืืคืช, ืืืืื ื ืฉืื ืืืืืื ืืกืืืืื ืืืฆืข ืืขืฉื ืืืืืืช ืืืืจื ืืื.
ืืืืจืืจ ืืืืืื ืืื ืืกืื ืืช ืืืื ื. ืืช ืืืืื ืฆืืดื, ืืช ืืืืืื ืืฉืจืื, ืืช ืืขืืื ื ืืขืืื ืืืช ืขืชืืื ื ืืืืืื. ืื ืื ื ืขืฆืืจ ืืืชื, ืืืื ื ื ืฉืื ืืืืจ ืืื.
ืืืืชื ืืืื ืืขืื ืื ืฉื ืืืืื ืืืืืืชื ืื ืฉืืืืฉืื ืืืื ืืงื ืขื ืขืฆืื ืืืืคื ืืืฉื ืืช ืืืืจืืืช ืืืืืืจ ืืช ืืืืง ืืืกืืจ ืืืืืื ืืฉืืืจืื.
ื ืืืื ืืืจืืจ ืืคืืกืืื ื ืืืืจืืจ ืืืืืื ืื ืืืฉืืช, ืืื ืืจืื ืืืื ืฉืื ืื ืืืช. ื ืืืืฉ ืืช ืืงืืจืืช ืืืืืื, ื ืคื ื ืืช ืืืงืื ืืืืืืืช ืื ืืืืจ ืืืืืืช ืืืืืืื ืืช ืืืื ืืืืืื ืืคืขืื ื ืื ืื ืื ืฉืืืื ืืืื ืืคืืืข ืืืคืื ืืคืฉืข.
ืฉืืจืชื ืืช ืืืื ืช ืืฉืจืื 38 ืฉื ืื. ืื ื ืืืืข ืื ืืืฉืืขืืช ืฉื ืืืื ืขื ืื ื ืืื. ืื ื ืืืืข ืืื ืืืจืืืช ืืืืืืื ื.
ืืฆืื ื ืืื ืืื ืชืืื ืืฆืืืืช ืฉืื ืืืืืื ืืืืืื ืืืื ืืฉื ืขืืืื ืืช ืืืืืืช, ืืืืชืืืื ืืช ืืืืื ื ืฉืื ืื ื ืืื.
ืื ืื ื ื ืืืืจ ืืช ืืืืืืื. ื ืืืืจ ืืช ืืืืง ืืืกืืจ. ืื ืื ืขื ืืฉืจืื ืืืืืืช, ืืืืงืจืืืช ืืฆืืื ืืช, ืฉืืืืืช ืืช ืืืื ืืืช ืืืืื ืฉื ืื ืืื.
ืื ืืืืืื ืฉื ืชืชื ืื ืืืื. ืืื ืืืชืืืืืืช ืฉืื ืืื ืืืจืื ืืฉืจืื.
"Russia is failing to achieve its war aims because the invasion was conceived in delusional hatred for the very idea of independent Ukrainian nationhood, which routinely underestimates that countryโs will to resist. That is a flaw in Mr Putinโs plans that no amount of collusion with Mrย Trump can fix."
theguardian.com/commentisfreโฆ
"Zelenskyy is a ready-made scapegoat for a problem largely caused by the US presidentโฆ a constant reminder of Trumpโs dealmaking impotence." @EdwardGLuce in @FT
Luce hits the nail on the head. Trump vowed to end the war in 24 hours, expecting Ukrainian capitulation. Zelenskyy refused.
Now, as the fallout from the war in Iran diverts vital Western air defences away from Kyiv, Ukraine pays the price for Washington's strategic blindness.
azrielbermant.substack.com/pโฆ
Azriel Bermant retweeted
โThese restrictions on Ukraineโs access to Starshield must stop immediately. Lives are at stake. The Pentagon is also required to notify Congress if it pauses or downgrades intelligence sharing with Ukraine. If that happens, @SecWar must provide that immediately.โ-@SenatorShaheen
While Musk owns SpaceX which controls Starlink systems and can impose restrictions on them in Ukraine, those that began overnight are on the Starshield military version of the system controlled by the Pentagon. This suggests the decision to limit the speed of the Starshield systems was made within the Trump administration. ft.com/content/37085602-726aโฆ
Reports are abounding of Russia's support for Iran, providing missiles to help Tehran restock its arsenals. Moscow is also providing Iran with intelligence, enabling it to attack U.S. military bases in the region.
Israelโs Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu recently accused the British government of appeasing the Iranians: โOnce you start appeasing, you donโt stop. Thatโs what we learn.โ
A bit rich, donโt you think?
That Netanyahu has never condemned Putin over his invasion of Ukraine is bad enough. Yet Russia is openly supporting Israelโs arch-enemy and Bibi is as quiet as a church mouse.
The British are openly supplying Ukraine with drone capabilities and sanctioning the IRGC. So who, exactly, is doing the appeasing?
My latest on Bermant's Frontline in the reply: ๐
Azriel Bermant retweeted
ืืืื ืจืืฉ ืืืืฉืื @netanyahu : ืฉืื, ืืื ืืชืช ืืืื ื-46 ืืืืืคืื ืฉื ืจืฆืื ืืฉืื, ืืืื ืืช ืฉืฉืช ืืืืืคืื ืฉืขืฉื ืืช ืืื ืืฉืจืื 328 ืืืื ืืคื ื ืฉืืืฆืื ืืืืจื ืืกืืฃ ืืืืืกื 2024, ืืืฉืคืืืชืืื, ืืืงืฉื ืชืคืกืืง ืืงืื ืขื ืขืฆืื ืงืจืืื ืขื ืืืืจืช ืื ืืืืืคืื. ืชืืืื ืื - ืื ืจืฆืื ื ืืช ืืืงืจืื ืฉืื ื ืืฉืงืืืช. ืื ืื ืืืฉื.
ื ืืื ืฉืืืืข ืงืจืืื ืขื ืง ืืืืืืื ื ืืืืืืจืื!
Moscow gains immensely from the ongoing chaos in the Middle East and clearly has an interest in ensuring that it continues. The absurdity of it all is that President Trump has even allowed the Russians to supply the Iranians with intelligence which enables them to attack U.S. bases in the region.
The capacity of the Houthis to cause mayhem in Saudi Arabia has received extensive coverage, but what is less well-known is that Russia, and not just Iran, has provided the Houthis with significant military support which has given them the wherewithal to carry out recent attacks.
What can one say about an American president who is content to accept Putinโs reassurances that Russia is providing no support to Iran?
My latest post on Bermant's Frontline: ๐
Trumpโs foolish Operation Epic Fury has driven up energy prices and yet it is Ukraine, not Russia, that is being forced to pay the price. President Trumpโs strategic blunders have made Iran fundamentally more dangerous and has created systemic instability that was not present prior to the war. Americaโs hapless and vindictive president has made Zelenskyy his scapegoat. The tragedy is that Kyiv is the direct victim of this catastrophic Middle East conflict.
Russia has been able to inflict massive destruction in Ukraine in large part because Kyiv is desperately short of air defences. In turn, this is a direct consequence of Western focus and resources being diverted by the conflict with Iran.
Ukraine has been made the scapegoat of a Middle East war it did not start, and is forced to pay the price for an American foreign policy driven by arrogance, incompetence and strategic blindness.
My latest on Bermant's Frontline: ๐
Poland's Foreign Minister @radeksikorski in @BBCr4today interview this morning: "We would rather see Trump press the aggressor in this war rather than the victim....It is hard to understand the logic of what is happening now."
Extraordinary self-restraint from the Polish Foreign Minister in the face of Trump's bullying of Ukraine and shameful appeasement of Vladimir Putin.
PM Andy Burnham stated yesterday that Iranโs IRGC was โalmost certainlyโ behind threats to RAF Fairford.
PM Binyamin Netanyahu claimed Israel tipped off London about an imminent attack and complained sanctions were slapped on Israel "the next day." But can we take Bibi's claim at face value?
The UK settlement sanctions were unveiled in early September, weeks before the arrests at RAF Fairford. Netanyahu's credibility is shot, and even his far-right allies have called him out. In June, he claimed without evidence that he personally authorized operations inside Iran to target atomic weapons "already in their hands."
Yet Israel and the UK enjoy vital, deep security cooperation. Both lose from an escalating crisis. The Israelis made their point; the UK government may well have calculated that ahead of elections, nothing should undermine Bibi's less extreme rivals.
My full analysis here: ๐
Azriel Bermant retweeted
Silly thing for Burnham to have said without elaboration or evidence, because it is corrosive of trust in elections to spread weak claims of foreign โinterferenceโ without explaining what it was and whether it was effective. That said, itโs also clear from the ISC report that the government wasnโt alert enough to potential interference at the time.
This is just not true. As soon as I became foreign secretary I asked the security services the same question and they replied that there was no evidence of any successful interference in the 2016 referendum, by Russia or any other power.
Either the security services have changed their view - which would be very odd - or Burnham is lying about what he has been told. After all Starmer was in power for two years and had access to exactly the same information.
theguardian.com/technology/2โฆ
Israel focused its anger on the UK over settlement trade bans, while France and Canada, which took identical action, escaped similar public fury.
Is Westminster the secret ringleader of European policy, or is the UK taking the heat for everyone else?
Might Andy Burnham view this as a back-handed compliment? Who knew that Britain was still taken so seriously?
My analysis on where UK-Israel relations stand after recent diplomatic clashes: ๐
Powerful piece by @fromTGA:
"Now, at last, Germany is genuinely engaged, at some cost and risk to itself, for the sovereignty of Ukraine. To anyone who knows this tangled history, there is something not just redemptive, but frankly inspiring in this sight: a democratic Germany playing a leading role in supporting an independent Ukraineโs bid to assume its proper place in a wider European community of free countries.
But for how long? And with how much support elsewhere in Europe? ...While Ukraine faces its most difficult winter yet, three closely connected things will be put to the test: Germanyโs will to stay committed on the right side of history; the capacity of democracies to sustain the fight against a dictatorship and Europeโs ability to remain united in this cause.
โฆWith the terrible damage being inflicted on the Ukrainian economy, experts estimate that as much as โฌ100bn of additional support for Kyiv may be needed in 2027 alone โ and hard-pressed European taxpayers are in no mood to cough that up. Putin believes decadent European democracies will crumble before the iron determination of an imperialist strongman. Our job is to prove him wrong. "
theguardian.com/commentisfreโฆ
