I make probability move. Mathematician + statistician.

Joined August 2018
The bootstrap estimates uncertainty from a single dataset: resample it with replacement, recompute the statistic, repeat. Watch the sampling distribution of a mean build up, one replicate at a time: aruodore.com/pieces/bootstra…
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Hamiltonian Monte Carlo uses gradients and momentum to move through a probability distribution without the usual random-walk crawl. This interactive makes the leapfrog trajectory, energy error, and acceptance step visible: aruodore.com/pieces/hamilton…
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We have found stable singularity on 3D Euler! anima-ai.org/2026/09/07/stab… Our starting point is a physics-informed neural network (PINN) to come up with an approximate answer, and then to argue stability around that to complete the proof. The challenge so far has been that PINNs have not been successful in discovering singularities on the current problem. A common failure mode is PINNs converging to a trivial solution. We take special care to nudge our PINN to interesting regions through a combination of constraints, and we believe this is a novel way of making PINNs work for such hard optimization problems. We also carry out a detailed study of the transport field of our approximate profile, and show it has promising properties of local outgoing flow, essential for proving linear damping, which is an important ingredient of overall stability. We believe that such physics-informed and physics-centric AI are critical ingredients across many areas of research involving physical systems, and LLMs lack such physical grounding. We have been working on this problem for much of this year, and we just saw the announcement by Tristan on Euler with forcing. In contrast, we consider without forcing and use a PINN formulation. @Caltech
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Built an interactive Brownian Bridge. Watch ordinary Brownian paths transform as they’re conditioned to reach a fixed endpoint. Replay the animation or generate new paths. aruodore.com/pieces/brownian…
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aruodore retweeted
dX_t = σ dW_t Brownian motion in 3D. One hundred thousand independent walkers, all started at the origin, each taking a Gaussian step at every timestep. The cloud's radius grows as √t — the visible signature of diffusion. First piece in a new series on probability, made interactive. aruodore.com/pieces/brownian…
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aruodore retweeted
An Ornstein Uhlenbeck process balances random shocks against a pull toward equilibrium. I wrote a 75k-particle simulation using the exact transition, so its distribution doesn’t depend on frame rate. aruodore.com/pieces/ornstein…
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I built an interactive explanation of Beta-Binomial updating. Set a prior, generate Bernoulli trials, and watch the posterior change as evidence accumulates, complete with credible intervals, posterior summaries, and the underlying math. aruodore.com/pieces/beta-bin…
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I built an interactive explanation of Beta-Binomial updating. Set a prior, generate Bernoulli trials, and watch the posterior change as evidence accumulates, complete with credible intervals, posterior summaries, and the underlying math. aruodore.com/pieces/beta-bin…
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We mostly buy based on branding at this point. Features are cool and all, but the average user barely uses most of them. Once a product is “good enough,” branding, design, ecosystem and perception become a much bigger part of the purchase.
Xiaomi showing off too much will only attract envy from Apple and Samsung.
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aruodore retweeted
1/ We’re delighted to announce a milestone for AI-assisted mathematics: With AxiomProver, we've completed a machine-checkable formalization of the “BGP246 theorem,” the best-known bound on recurring small gaps between primes. Closest math has come to the Twin Prime Conjecture.
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This is lovely
Google Brain founder, Andrew Ng: "Prompting will be dead in 6 months, graphs are what's replacing it." In 2 hours at Stanford he shows how to build agents that work and improve entirely on their own. The first 10 minutes cover what most $500 courses never do. Watch the lecture first, then read the guide below on how to build a system that improves itself.
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Google Brain founder, Andrew Ng: "Prompting will be dead in 6 months, graphs are what's replacing it." In 2 hours at Stanford he shows how to build agents that work and improve entirely on their own. The first 10 minutes cover what most $500 courses never do. Watch the lecture first, then read the guide below on how to build a system that improves itself.
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you don’t need a lot of good ideas, you just need a few good ideas to work out.
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One of the clearest explanations of GPU data layouts I’ve read. The swizzle section makes shared-memory bank conflicts and XOR address remapping genuinely intuitive, especially with the interactive visualizations. Highly recommended: mlc.ai/modern-gpu-programmin…
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Make person help me find the people wey approve this advert. wtf😭😭😭
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