
Macro Strategist/sports nut. Not investment advice. God #1. Family, NYY, NYK, Gmen, PU, Tennis. Vulgarity&insults get blocked & no DMs #Hedgedequity #volatility
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Joined January 2010
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We are so lucky to just be down one nothing. But this could work to the Yankees favor because Tampa Bay did not put them away early.
Are you serious Giants! Why are we playing prevent D when our straight up defense is pressured the quarterback all day!
To my Giants fan followers, I know we love the pass but the Rams D gave up 174 rushing yards to SF last week...Not sure that gets fixed in a week. Let's play NFC East football! #LetsgoGmen
Re: the uproar around AI of late, the concerns are real, but I think some of the reaction is too binary and too focused on dire outcomes. We know how to build independent stress-testing, random audits and continuous monitoring around other safety-critical technologies, and AI should be no different. The more likely path is periodic failures, regulation and headline shocks that create volatility—not an inevitable existential outcome.
As with cyber threats, these are serious but largely solvable engineering and governance problems. Markets may be overpricing the extremes while underappreciating the opportunities created by volatility along the way. Existential-threat language plays on fear and people’s tendency to panic, but fear is rarely a sound strategy. The risks posed by AI are real, but like other powerful technologies—including nuclear—we can build systems to manage them.
Let us not forget 9/11. On this day 25 years ago was not able to go into the city for a downtown meeting because of a scheduled minor surgery for my son while in the waiting room. My wife and I saw the whole conflagration. Our firm lost wonderful people. Our town lost wonderful people a terrible ideology, that’s still exist. Today broke through and brought the city to its knees. We cannot forget the dangers of destructive ideologies. We cannot get complacent and lose understanding of the very real risks we still face.
Responding to a comment by @carlquintanilla @CNBC To be clear on the Norwegian SWF, Important clarification: this is not simply a decision to sell U.S. Treasuries, nor has the proposed reallocation occurred yet. Norges Bank Investment Management is proposing to reduce govt bonds broadly from 70% to 50% of its fixed-income benchmark, while increasing exposure to other investment-grade bonds. U.S. Treasuries would see the largest reduction, but much of that would be reallocated to U.S. mortgage and government-related securities. Overall U.S. dollar exposure would barely change. That was lost in your comment. This looks much more like a portfolio-construction decision around diversification, liquidity and risk premia than a wholesale loss of confidence in U.S. assets.
Watching these women at the U.S. Open, I can’t help but miss Ash Barty’s big dynamic, powerful athletic game. She held such a great record against many of today’s stars that I can’t help, but think she would been a force at this open as well. It’s sad to me that not enough of the commentators mention this to current viewers. I’m sure she’s happy in her life now, but she was very good, holding the number one ranking for well over two years. @AdamZagoria
Big win for Shelton. I know Alcaraz has had his number before but this Ben Shelton doesn’t look anything like prior versions. He is so determined so mamba like. His fitness level is absolutely at a championship level.
Folks wondering why European stocks struggling today. Europe faces a difficult asymmetry: it captures less of the AI-driven growth supporting U.S. equities while bearing more of the Russia-Ukraine risk through energy, agriculture, defense spending and geopolitics. That combination can constrain valuations even when European earnings and fundamentals remain solid. For International diversification proponents that's a challenge. @CliffordAsness @jimcramer @timseymour
Just booked a room for a conference in a Chicago hotel and became a Chicago and Illinois tax payer to the tune of 17.4% over the 2 night bill! @jimiuorio Now explain why Chicago needs more tax revenue? Can someone explain to me what services the City and State are rendering for that sticker shock? But even NYC and Boston are under 15%. Add in city destination and resort fees (at inner city hotels?) and its over 30% of the bill! This crazy.
Interesting messaging from the markets that there is perceived to be directionally more worry on long treasuries than equity volatility here since the turn of the quarter. The other message here is that diversification becomes much more nuanced as bond volatility rises. It's not just a correlation concern. With Jackson Hole in focus, it's time for policymakers to address frameworks not just the next few months policy. We don't need a bandaid, we need a treatment plan. @jimiuorio
The macro folks aren't focusing on...The Russia-Ukraine war is heating up again, yet markets seem remarkably sanguine. The bigger issue may be Europe: higher defense spending, Ukraine support and energy security increasingly look structural. And watch the commodity signals. Escalation around Black Sea infrastructure can put a risk premium into European natural gas while disrupted Russian/Ukrainian exports are already pushing grain prices higher.
This doesn't require predicting a wider war. It means recognizing a potentially different fiscal, security and commodity regime. Watch rates, sovereign spreads, currencies, Nat gas and agriculture—not just equities. The VIX may have been dropping but volatility seems only a news/datapoint away.
This 60 minutes segment on California high-speed rail is absolutely embarrassing that several other countries have been able to do this in much less time and cost in the US is such an example of that regions, absolute political ineptitude and negligence. The efforts 60 Minutes is taking to not look partisan still can’t hide how poor their effort is. Even degrading the bright line to show that even Florida had a hard time with it. This isn’t about the uptake of commuter rail passengers which is difficult to make happen. This is money that was spent and has been wasted by the state of California. And it even looks like there’s not enough money to finish it.
I know I’ll get flack for this, but I wonder why the media feels they need to hype up how on a few of our long deployment ships morale is low and some of the basic operations are having engineering issues? We have the largest military in the world. Are these cases really that big an issue and why should we let the Iranians know any of this? Just seems like a really counterproductive media effort. Maybe that’s the point. What do you think @jimiuorio
On my way up to Providence for a day of business and got a chance to see/experience the new Moynahan, Amtrak station. Absolutely beautiful and clean. The only criticism I have is there should be a central Jumbotron with the train schedule and track assignments. But otherwise retail and function meld perfectly.
Market concern over downside is meaningfully lower than it has been in a while...But that doesn't guarantee a smooth pathway. Markets rarely take straight and smooth paths.
Re: Dodgers bashing. Even if nothing improper is occurring (I am skeptical), MLB should ask whether its rules increasingly favor a particular kind of owner. A family or locally rooted ownership group may technically have access to the same deferred-compensation tools as the Dodgers, but it rarely has the same capital base, financing sophistication or tolerance for long-dated obligations.
That risks making competitive balance partly a function of financial engineering rather than baseball judgment. It may also accelerate the shift from local ownership toward global investment groups, with consequences for ticket prices, media access and accountability to local fans.
The issue is not simply whether the Dodgers are following the rules. It is whether the rules are gradually determining who can realistically afford to compete. Again, does that direction deserve anti-trust exemption.
At the Mets Marlins game today with a family member. Diehard Yankee fan but wanted to be with my family and have to say the Met entertainment and general game show is pretty good. I do think the 50-50 raffle stuff is a little bush league though. The food is excellent, however.
If you’re watching tonight’s Cubs game and saw the White Sox series as well you are watching Spencer Jones step into opportunity and step up performance.#letsget28 could a star be being born?

