Sick get by @patrick_oshag + cool to hear from @noahrshinn Got to learn more about Instinct: - $1B+ in annualized transaction volume while still invite-only, growing 10% a day w/ $0 on marketing (apparently people selling their invites on eBay for $300) - 50% of that is travel - 40% of users hand the agent a credit card w/in 3 weeks, + those who share anything sensitive retain at 80% - Goal is to stay free for life + monetize via a blanket take rate on txns, paid by merchants for distribution - Compute needs are effectively 2xing every week, new capacity takes months to come online + buying on short notice costs 3-4x, so Noah spends ~40% of his time on compute 🤯

Oooo this is fascinating! Meta's Muse agent will support multiple wallets INCLUDING a "Meta Connect" They already support Stripe Link and PayPal, it looks like, based on this screenshot from Android Authority they're also going to do their own. The wallets inside the agents are going to be so so crucial to identity, liability and risk in the agentic commerce world. I've been ranting about "wallet wars" for a couple of years now. That just moved to agents. Zuckerberg has already said Muse will take a cut of purchases. A first-party wallet is how you take it twice. The Wallet Wars didn't end. They moved inside the agent.

dropping another billion dollar startup idea: build an insurance company for AI agents that move money. as agents start making purchases, payments, and transfers autonomously, someone will need to underwrite the risk when things go wrong. we’re already starting to see agents like Instinct buy the wrong thing, send money somewhere they shouldn’t, or misunderstand what the user actually asked for. as agents get access to more money, these mistakes become exponentially more expensive. a tech native insurer could underwrite each agent based on: > transaction limits > historical error rates > actions it can perform > approval + permission controls > fraud and security infrastructure > amount of money it can access then price coverage based on the risk profile of each agent. eventually, every AI agent that can autonomously spend or move money will need an insurance layer sitting underneath it. someone should build this.

give away intelligence. monetize payments. that's my thesis.

We are going to see a lot of vertically focused AI native companies accelerate. Routers, open-source models and specialized post-training enabled by companies like @FireworksAI_HQ have all made dramatic advances and the combination of the three is driving accelerating growth. Companies like @wearelegora can now use their data to post-train an open-source model and then combine it with frontier models behind a router to get the same or better outcomes at lower costs than the frontier alone. This dramatically improves the business model for all these companies. @cognition seeing similar trends.

Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince: “I think AI is going to destroy small businesses.”

Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince: “I think AI is going to destroy small businesses.”