Sambodo, A.P

NEW RELEASE: “North Korea’s Uranium Enrichment Facilities: What We Learned from KCNA’s Recent Images,” by @DAVIDALBRIGHT1 and @SFnuclear, with @SarahBurkhard isis-online.org/isis-reports…… We have produced a comprehensive report analyzing two sets of images released by KCNA of North Korea’s gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facilities dedicated to making weapon-grade uranium (WGU) for nuclear weapons. One set, likely of the Kangsong, aka Kangson, enrichment plant, was released in September 2024; the second set, likely of the Yongbyon enrichment plant, was released in January 2025. Analysis of both sets of pictures affords a much better understanding of North Korea’s enrichment plants than has been available before, particularly important as the images indicate that North Korea has expanded the capacity of these sites. In terms of centrifuges, the images allow for the first time to make a more informed estimate of the total number of centrifuges in the two facilities. In total, Kangsong is estimated to contain nominally 7542 P2-type centrifuges, with about 2000 of them being added now, and Yongbyon contains nominally 6614 centrifuges, for a grand total of 14,156 centrifuges, rounded to 14,000 centrifuges. In terms of current WGU production potential, assuming the centrifuges are P2-types with typical enrichment outputs and inefficiencies, starting with natural uranium, Kangsong could make nominally about 100 kilograms WGU per year in the main building and another 35 to 50 kilograms in the annex, when the latter is finished. Yongbyon could nominally make about 80 kilograms of WGU in its two main halls. Combined, Kangsong and Yongbyon are estimated to nominally be able to make 180 kilograms of WGU per year, increasing to 215 to 230 kilograms of WGU per year when the Kangsong annex is operational, an increase of 20 to 30 percent. These estimates are higher-end estimates, although they allocate sufficient enrichment capacity at Yongbyon to make LEU for the 100 MWth LWR. Lower end WGU production estimates are given as the annual WGU output of Kangsong. This higher end estimate of WGU production in the main halls of the two enrichment plants, minus recent additions, is only somewhat higher than an earlier Institute estimate. In 2023 and 2024, prior to the publication of the images, the Institute calculated North Korea’s WGU stocks, assuming the existence of two enrichment plants. The calculations result in a range of values, with a median of 150 kilograms of WGU per year. North Korea claims that it is deploying or will deploy more advanced centrifuges with greater enrichment output, although this assertion cannot be ascertained in any quantitative manner from the images. But taller centrifuges were not apparent, except possibly one centrifuge, and improvements in centrifuge output seem to be driven mostly by increasing the speed of the rotor assembly. The next Institute task is to estimate historical WGU production through 2024. The images indicate that the plant may have experienced significant centrifuge breakage, reducing overall output of WGU. A challenge will be to model the increase in the capacity of the P2-type centrifuge.