𝑩𝒆𝒄𝒌𝒚 𝑩𝒆𝒂𝒍𝒍 🌴

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: A high end severe weather risk is setting up for Alabama in the broad window from 10pm Friday through 3am Sunday. All of Alabama is in an "enhanced risk" as defined by SPC, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. There will be two primary rounds of thunderstorms. ROUND ONE: 10pm FRIDAY - 8am SATURDAY: The first batch of storms associated with this very dynamic storm system will move into Northwest Alabama Friday night. These storms will continue into Saturday morning over the northern half of the state; hail and damaging winds are possible along with an isolated tornado or two. ROUND TWO: 12 NOON SATURDAY - 3am SUNDAY: This will likely be the “main show”. Storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Based on forecast parameters, a few strong/long track tornadoes will be possible (EF-2 or higher). These storms should be out of the state by daybreak Sunday. Key messages this evening... *It is helpful to look and see what an atmospheric setup like this has produced in the past. Some of the analogs that continue to show up include April 8, 1998, December 16, 2000, and November 24, 2001. These days all featured numerous severe thunderstorms including some very significant tornadoes. *April 27, 2011 is NOT an analog for this event. That is generational... days like that tend to happen every 40 years or so. *For those that have weather anxiety, just remember that even during high end severe weather events, odds of any spot being hit by a tornado are relatively low. But stronger wording is appropriate for this type of threat. We sure don't want to generate fear, but we have to use bold language so people understand the danger. *Our goal for any severe weather event in Alabama is no loss of life, and no serious injuries. It takes us all working together to make that happen. The key part of preparedness is being sure you have a reliable way of hearing warnings. Never, ever an outdoor siren. Never. A NOAA Weather Radio should be in every Alabama home and business. On your phone, have WEA enabled (Wireless Emergency Alerts), and have the 33/40 weather app installed. *In your safe place, have helmets for everyone, including adults. Most serious injuries in tornadoes involve blunt force trauma above the shoulders. *If you live in a mobile home, know the location of the nearest shelter, or business open 24/7 that can serve as a shelter. Have transportation arranged so you can get there quickly. *If you are reading this, you pay attention to weather. Understand many people don’t keep up with the weather, so you can be a hero during the severe weather event. If you have a friend or loved one in a tornado warning polygon, be sure and call or text them to let them know of the immediate danger. Let them know now that severe storms are likely late Friday night through early Sunday morning. *Soon we will be within the 60 hour window (tomorrow morning), when high resolution, convection allowing model data will be available. This is when we can be more specific about timing and the event in general.