Alex Younkin retweeted
How to kill open source models in 3 simple steps:
- Create panic about frontier models.
- Have the biggest AI companies help write the “safety” rules. ← WE’RE HERE
- Make those rules so burdensome that open source can’t compete.
Art of the deal.
In the world of AI being able to think for yourself and have truly original thought is where the alpha lies
(Especially when most things nowadays are just regurgitated ai generated slop)
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Economic Data Week Ahead: Feb 9 - Feb 13
This week is packed with important economic data, with major inflation and labor market prints on deck.
Key Data
• Tue: Retail Sales (Est: 0.5%) - beat shows strong consumer, miss shows demand weakness
• Wed: Unemployment Rate (Est: 4.4%) - below delays cuts, above supports cuts
• Thu: Initial Claims (Est: 222K) - below delays cuts, above supports cuts
• Fri: CPI (Est: 0.3%) - beat = sticky inflation delays cuts, miss = cooling inflation supports cuts
• Fri: Core CPI (Est: 0.3%) - beat = sticky inflation delays cuts, miss = cooling inflation supports cuts
• Fri: Core CPI YoY (Est: 2.5%) - beat = sticky inflation delays cuts, miss = cooling inflation supports cuts
TLDR
-Inflation and labor market data are the biggest releases this week.
-CPI on Friday is the main event, where a hot core reading keeps rate cuts off the table, and a cool print revives March cut odds from the current 40%.
-On the labor side, "bad news is good news" with Wednesday's unemployment rate and Thursday's initial claims will signal whether the job market is bad enough to justify cuts.
- Also, watch Tuesday's retail sales data for a read on consumer spending strength.
Follow @alyounkin and have notifications on for updates when these data points get released.
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Economic Data Weekly:
Feb 2 - Feb 6
Current Economic Picture TLDR
• Fed: Holding at 3.50-3.75% with hawkish tilt. Jefferson reinforced patience on cuts despite labor softness. Two dissenters wanted 25bp cut.
• Inflation: No fresh readings this week. Fed still watching for sustained progress toward 2% target before cutting.
• Growth: Manufacturing rebounding strongly (ISM 52.6% vs 47.9% prior). Services steady at 53.8%. Economic momentum improving.
• Labor: Clear cooling trend. ADP payrolls weak (22K vs 45K), claims rising (231K), job openings falling (6.5M vs 7.1M expected).
• Consumer: Sentiment ticking up (57.3 vs 55.0) but auto sales declining. Mixed consumer signals.
• Watch: CPI Tuesday, retail sales Wednesday, Empire State Thursday. Inflation data critical for March cut odds (currently 40-45%).
Data Recap
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Speech: Reiterated Fed patience on cuts, emphasized data-dependent approach.
• ISM Manufacturing: 52.6% vs 48.4% est (prev 47.9%). Manufacturing expanding faster than expected.
• S&P Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 (prev 51.8). Manufacturing growth accelerating.
• ADP Employment: 22K vs 45K est (prev 37K). Private payrolls well below expectations.
• S&P Services PMI: 52.7 vs 52.5 est (prev 52.5). Services sector steady expansion.
• ISM Services: 53.8% vs 53.5% est (prev 53.8%). Services holding at solid growth pace.
• Initial Claims: 231K vs 212K est (prev 209K). Claims rising above expectations.
• JOLTS Job Openings: 6.5M vs 7.1M est (prev 6.9M). Labor demand continuing to cool.
• Consumer Sentiment: 57.3 vs 55.0 est (prev 56.4). Consumer mood improving slightly.
• Auto Sales: 14.9M (prev 16.1M). Vehicle demand declining.
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