Every call goes up before the print. Every receipt goes up after. Q2 2026, Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal: 0/6 BEARISH TSLA -14% 0/6 BEARISH INTC erased a 15% rally 0/6 BEARISH SNDK -7% 2/6 BEARISH JEF -10% 2/6 BEARISH CAR -10.19% 2/6 NEUTRAL TER beat called to the penny, sell-off called 3/6 NEUTRAL AAPL -9% 4/6 BULLISH AMZN +6% 5/6 BULLISH NOW +4.22% 5/6 BULLISH FFIV +11.4% off the low Next up is NVDA, August 26 post-market. The call posts before it. What else runs here: Institutional quality research that you will only find behind trading desks and prime brokerages. The edge was never the data. It was who could afford the analysis. Q4 changes that. Institutional and data licensing: [email protected] Get on the list first: alphatica.io $NVDA $SPY $QQQ

The structure is intact. SPX 7,719 is still above 7,700, so this is a second hold of the same level. A double test of 7,720 holding is a constructive sign for the afternoon. ethereum:0xe0f63a424a4439cbe457d80e4f4b51ad25b2c56c $SPY

🚨🚨SPY and oil moved in the same second at 11:12:18 ET. What happened: - 10:30–11:11: SPY topped at $772.29 at 10:30 and then drifted sideways around $771 on light volume. - 11:12:18: SPY fell from $770.70 to $767.95 by 11:13, down 0.35%. The 11:12 minute traded 5.2× normal volume, the heaviest minute since the open. - 11:14–11:16: It bounced to $769.70, then faded again. It's $768.81 now, down 0.45% from the 10:30 high. The market is still sensitive to any middle east news.

SPY OPEN | Tuesday October 20 $771.49. Up 0.65%. $770 cleared. The overnight repair showed up. YESTERDAY: At 2:56PM SPY was $767.53 with the afternoon put wave building. It closed $766.48. This morning it's $5 higher. MON 2:56PM → TUE 10:42AM: Price: $767.53 → $771.49 Composite: -43.7 → +24.0 (lean bullish) Options surface: -$1.00B → -$483M Engine: -54M → +48M Net premium: +$147M → +$684M Premium: 54% calls → 80% calls Every reading improved. 80% calls is the highest call share of any read since last Thursday. New calls are opening almost 5 to 1 over closing. WHERE PRICE IS SITTING: Price is inside the positive zone now. $770 (+$90M) $771 (+$84M) $773 (+$82M) $775 (+$97M) $780 (+$133M) About $1.0B of positive gamma from $770 to $790. Dealers dampen moves up here. THE CATCH: Most of the support right under price expires today. $771: all +$84M is today's calls $770: +$62M of +$90M expires today $773: +$54M of +$82M expires today The $769 cliff is still there: -$90M of Friday puts hiding under today's calls. BELOW: $769 (-$69M), Friday's cliff $765 (-$137M), max pain $760 (-$259M), the biggest strike on the board VOLATILITY: ATM IV: 14.0% calls, 15.3% puts. Puts priced 1.3 points over calls, up from 0.3 yesterday. Protection is getting bid into the rally. Realized vol: 10.2%. THE WEEK: Last Friday close: $763.25 Now: $771.49 Week: +1.08% $770 is the line. $771.49 is price. $769 is the cliff. $765 is max pain. Above $770 the board works for the bulls. The support is real today. Tomorrow it has to be rebuilt. $SPY $QQQ

What a monster trade. Now up +15.3% on the $1,131 entry on October 8. We think this overshoots. We would be more cautious as we get closer to earnings. Monster trade here. $LLY $SPY

7738-7765 is key for the bulls. ethereum:0xe0f63a424a4439cbe457d80e4f4b51ad25b2c56c

SPX GEX Levels: Tuesday, October 20 SPX closed Monday at 7,690.73, up 31 points (+0.41%), inside our 7,575–7,725 range. We flagged that negative gamma cuts both ways. Monday bounced instead of flushing. The structure healed, but it isn't healed. Net gamma improved by $210M, from -$536M to -$326M. Still negative. The flow shifted. Volume put/call dropped from 1.67 to 1.53, back under 1.55. The two heaviest volume strikes were calls: 7,750 (+$27M) and 7,800 (+$25M). Buyers are reaching for the flip. The flip sits at 7,738, 47 points above. Spot is parked on the 7,700 bucket at -$110M, and the accelerator stack below hasn't gone anywhere: 7,675: -$83M 7,650: -$127M (heaviest bucket) 7,625: -$73M 7,600: -$113M That's -$506M between 7,600 and 7,700. Above the flip, 7,800 is the first real magnet at +$80M, with 7,900 at +$82M. ATM IV eased from 15.9% to 14.6%. Today is a test of the bounce. Reclaim 7,738 and dealers flip to absorbing, with 7,800 the pull. Fail and roll back under 7,650, and the stack does the work toward 7,600. Predicted range: 7,630–7,765. $SPY $QQQ $SPX

🚨 CAR’S 2026 SQUEEZE HAS BEEN ALMOST COMPLETELY ERASED. The stock ran from an $87.69 base to a $713.97 closing peak. Monday’s close: $102.38 Squeeze retraced: 97.7% We studied 17 previous stocks that rallied at least 3x and then surrendered nearly the entire move. What happened next? 20-day median return: +13.6% 60-day median return: -14.1% 120-day median return: -49.6% The pattern was consistent: A short-term rebound often came first. Then the original base broke. Thirteen of 17 closed below their pre-squeeze base within 60 trading days. Applied to CAR, the research leans toward the high $80s by mid-January. That is a base case, not a price target. The near-term risk is violent in both directions. Short interest increased 12% to 5.25 million shares, with 11 days to cover. Earnings arrive November 2, and options are pricing approximately a 15% move through the report. The Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal for CAR is 0/6 BEARISH. $CAR $SPY

NFLX: Valuation Top or Buying Opportunity? youtu.be/dntXsrBU1P8?is=fXqD… via @YouTube

Who wants another Black Monday? 🤭

SPY 3PM | Monday October 19 | Post-OPEX $767.53. Up 0.56%. Same price as 10:44. Different flow. 10:44AM → 2:56PM: Price: $767.29 → $767.53 Composite: +16.3 → -43.7 (lean bearish) Options surface: -$786M → -$1.00B Engine: +12M → -54M Net premium: +$478M → +$147M Premium: 73% calls → 54% calls The afternoon put wave is back. Same price, weaker flow underneath. Puts are opening 4 to 1 over closing. WHERE PRICE IS SITTING: $768 (+$82M), $0.47 above price $769 (-$60M) $770 (+$70M) Both reads today caught price just under $770. It hasn't cleared the line. THE HIDDEN CLIFF AT $769: $769 shows -$60M, but that is two positions netting out. Today's expiring calls add +$34M. Friday's puts carry -$89M. At 4PM today's calls expire. $768 loses its +$89M of same-day calls. $770 loses $45M. What's left at $769 is an -$89M Friday cliff. The positive line built this morning was mostly 0DTE. After the close it mostly disappears. BELOW: $765 (-$131M), max pain $760 (-$199M) $750 (-$218M), the biggest strike on the board About $1.2B of negative gamma from $745 to $767. ABOVE: $775 (+$61M) $780 (+$106M) $800 (+$116M) VOLATILITY: ATM IV: 14.4% calls, 14.7% puts. Unchanged from the morning. No fear in the pricing. Charm: +288K. Vanna: -202K. $770 is the line. $767.53 is price. $769 is Friday's cliff. $765 is max pain. robinhood:0x117cc2133c37b721f49de2a7a74833232b3b4c0c $QQQ $IWM

Some initial thoughts on META and NFLX: $NFLX: the market has been fading the print for over a year. To change that, it needs revenue above consensus plus guidance, not an EPS beat. $META: the result matters less than the spending guidance. In every major drop that wasn’t caused by a miss, the reason was capex and expense guidance. We will have full coverage on both companies.

We will not know if today was a trap for the bulls until Wednesday.

Black Monday, 2026 edition: S&P 500 +0.88% Nasdaq +1.73% The Nasdaq is running at almost twice its historical average for this day. The base rate held. $SPY $QQQ

SPY OPEN | Monday October 19 | Post-OPEX $767.29. Up 0.53%. OPEX cleared the board. FRIDAY: At 2:11PM SPY was $762.86 with -$2.46B of gamma and puts opening 7 to 1. It closed $763.25. $760 held. No snap-back to $765. Day: -1.11%. Week: -1.97%. FRI 2:11PM → MON 10:44AM: Price: $762.86 → $767.29 Composite: -48.3 → +16.3 (neutral) Options surface: -$2.46B → -$786M Engine: -261M → +12M Net premium: -$1.68B → +$478M Premium: 25% calls → 73% calls Every reading improved. OPEX took $1.7B of negative gamma off the board. The overnight repair is back. THE LINE MOVED: Last week the first positive strike was $775. Now it's $770, $2.71 above price. $770 (+$88M) $771 (+$56M) $775 (+$73M) $780 (+$116M) Most of $770 and $771 is today's expiring calls. The new line is real, but it's thin. BELOW: $765 (-$120M), max pain $760 (-$198M) $750 (-$214M), the biggest strike on the board About $1.2B of negative gamma from $745 to $767. About $790M of positive gamma from $770 to $790. VOLATILITY: ATM IV: 14.3% calls, 14.7% puts. Down from 17.0/19.2 on Friday. The put premium is almost gone. Realized vol: 10.2%. $770 is the line. $767.29 is price. $765 is max pain. $760 is the floor. The board reset. Calls are back at 73%. Clear $770 and the positive side takes over for the first time in a week. $SPY $QQQ

🚨 SPX GEX LEVELS | MONDAY, OCTOBER 19 THE OPEX RELIEF LASTED ONE SESSION. Friday came down to one level: Reclaim 7,765 or lose 7,700. SPX lost 7,700 and closed at 7,659.44, down 85 points. The index finished 36 points below our predicted range. The direction was right. The range was too tight again. In negative gamma, the ranges need to be wider. Today’s is. Net gamma: Thursday: -$141M Friday after the roll: +$216M Monday setup: -$536M This is the deepest negative-gamma reading since July, exceeding September’s -$477M low. SPX is now sitting directly on the heaviest accelerator on the board: 7,650: -$126M 7,625: -$68M 7,600: -$108M 7,550: -$79M 7,500: -$97M That is $558 million of negative gamma between 7,500 and 7,650. Dealers sell into declines inside this zone. They do not absorb them. The flow confirms the regime: Nine of the top 10 volume strikes were puts. Volume put/call: 1.67 ATM IV: 13.1% to 15.9% The gamma flip is now 80 points above spot at 7,740. The first meaningful magnet is 7,800 at only +$53M. Positive gamma above the market is thin, leaving rallies with very little structural support. Negative gamma cuts both ways. It accelerates declines, but short-covering rallies can also become violent. Reclaim 7,700 and SPX can make a run toward the 7,740 flip. Remain below 7,700 and the path of least resistance stays lower. Monday’s expected range: 7,575 to 7,725. Below 7,650: 7,600, then 7,500. The gamma regime is no longer cushioning the market. It is amplifying it. ethereum:0xe0f63a424a4439cbe457d80e4f4b51ad25b2c56c $SPY

The most important hour of earnings season so far is Wednesday, 4:00–5:00 PM ET. $META $IBM $TXN $LRCX, back to back. AI spending, enterprise demand, the broader chip cycle, and fab equipment. Four different tests of the same trade, in one hour. The rest of the week: Tue: $NFLX after the close, full Alphatica coverage Wed AM: $PM $ELV $NEE $CME $T Thu AM: $PG $CMCSA $BX Fri AM: $AXP $SLB Macro is thin. Housing data, jobless claims, flash PMIs. No Fed speakers ahead of the Oct 27–28 meeting. When there’s no macro to lean on, earnings set the tape.

Black Monday canceled. Gamma squeeze to 7750 please.

The last time Miami took over No. 1 in the AP poll midseason was Sunday, November 10, 2002. SPY fell 1.55% that Monday, then finished the week up 1.95%. Sample size: one. $SPY