Global liquidity just gave a more complicated signal. Not bearish. Not cleanly bullish either. Total liquidity has dropped to roughly $146.2T, down about $1.3T from the prior update. Normally, that would be a warning. But the momentum data says something different. The 12-week RoC has accelerated to +5.27, while the 52-week RoC is still only +0.47. So the headline level has pulled back, but the short-term impulse is getting stronger. That is the tension right now. Markets are not just trading the size of liquidity. They are trading the slope. Under the surface, the US liquidity picture explains part of this. The Treasury General Account has fallen from recent levels, which is less of a near-term drain, but it is still around $756B and much higher than a year ago. Reserve balances are back above $3.1T, yet still lower year-over-year, while the reverse repo cushion remains far smaller than it was in previous cycles. Translation: the acute drain has eased, but the system has less spare liquidity sitting around. The Fed is also no longer operating like pure QT. Its current setup allows Treasury bill purchases and reinvestments to maintain ample reserves when needed. That does not mean QE is back, but it does mean the liquidity backdrop is more flexible than it was during the hardest phase of tightening. Europe remains a drag. The ECB raised rates in June, and APP/PEPP portfolios are still shrinking because reinvestments have stopped. China is leaning the other way. The PBoC has been using overnight reverse repos to smooth short-term funding conditions. That is tactical liquidity support, not a full credit boom, but it helps explain why the global liquidity impulse is improving even as the headline level has slipped. Bitcoin is now trading around $64.7k That matters because BTC has bounced while total liquidity fell. This suggests Bitcoin may be responding more to the acceleration in liquidity than the absolute liquidity level itself. The risk is simple: if the 12-week RoC rolls over before the 52-week RoC confirms, this becomes another failed impulse. But if the 52-week RoC starts rising from here, the setup becomes much stronger. Current read: Liquidity level down. Liquidity impulse up. Bitcoin is following the impulse for now. Global Liquidity: $146.2T 12W RoC: +5.27

Global Liquidity declined by 0.2% over the past week, currently standing at approximately $147.9T, while Bitcoin continues to trade within a broad range around the $60k level. The DXY also weakened modestly over the same period while auctioning right below a strong resistance in 101.7, providing a small tailwind for global liquidity conditions. From a longer-term structural perspective, Global Liquidity remains relatively close to its all-time high, while Bitcoin is still trading roughly 50% below its own ATH. A similar divergence was observed during the 2018 market cycle, where liquidity remained resilient while Bitcoin took longer to fully respond. And although many new variables are within the playing field now, compared to 2018 - for now, that divergence remains the key theme. Liquidity continues to provide a constructive backdrop, but Bitcoin has yet to confirm it through price. As a result, our base case remains a largely range-bound market until stronger confirmation emerges. Momentum is improving beneath the surface. Price simply hasn't caught up yet.

Global liquidity increased by approximately 0.78% this week (+~$1.15T), bringing total global liquidity to roughly $148.7 T. The bigger story, however, remains momentum. The short-term liquidity impulse continues to strengthen, suggesting financial conditions are gradually becoming more supportive for risk assets. That said, we still don't have confirmation of a broad liquidity expansion. Constructive? Yes. A full risk-on regime? Not yet. Under the surface, the picture remains mixed. US liquidity continues to face headwinds from Treasury cash management and reserve dynamics, while funding conditions remain more sensitive than in previous years due to the near depletion of the reverse repo facility. China, on the other hand, continues to provide an important offset. The PBoC has maintained its newly introduced overnight reverse repo operations, injecting significant short-term liquidity into the banking system in an effort to smooth funding conditions without resorting to broad monetary easing. So the overall picture continues to improve, but it isn't firing on all cylinders just yet. Liquidity momentum is strengthening. Bitcoin continues to lag from this perspective. Historically, these divergences don't tend to persist forever. They usually resolve through either stronger asset prices or weakening liquidity momentum. For now, the data still leans constructive. The direction is improving. The next step is confirmation. Global Liquidity: ~$148.7T (+0.78%, +~$1.15T)

Sometimes the simplest approach really is the best. For transparency, I didn't trade this reclaim on $BTC, but I did catch a long on $SOL after the highlighted reclaim and took profit at 82.08. The setup was simple. The hard part was having the patience to wait for it. Trading isn't supposed to be exciting. It's supposed to be repeatable.

Global liquidity is now sitting around $147.5T, up roughly $150B from the previous reading. The bigger story, however, is momentum. The 12-week RoC has climbed to +3.47, while the 52-week RoC remains at just +0.54. In other words, the short-term liquidity impulse is accelerating, but the longer-term trend has yet to fully confirm. Constructive? Yes. A clean risk-on regime? Not yet. Under the surface, US liquidity remains uneven. Fed reserves fell by roughly $82B last week, while the Treasury General Account climbed to around $919 B. That's important because cash held at the Treasury is liquidity sitting outside the banking system. Meanwhile, the reverse repo facility is far smaller than in previous years, leaving less excess liquidity to absorb funding stress. Markets are therefore becoming increasingly sensitive to TGA rebuilds, reserve drains, and Treasury issuance cycles. China🇨🇳 remains the main offset. The PBoC recently expanded short-term funding support through overnight reverse repos, first injecting 300B yuan, followed by another 600B yuan the next day. This is not a full-blown credit impulse, but it does suggest policymakers are actively working to ease funding conditions. So the picture remains mixed, but it is improving. Liquidity momentum is strengthening. Bitcoin isn't. BTC is trading near $59k while the 12-week liquidity impulse continues to rise sharply. That divergence is now the key signal. Either Bitcoin is front-running another liquidity fade, or price is lagging a liquidity recovery that has yet to fully feed through. For now, the liquidity data still leans constructive. But the next step is confirmation from the 52-week RoC. Until that turns higher, this should be viewed as an improving liquidity impulse - not a confirmed expansion phase. Global Liquidity: $147.5T 12W RoC: +3.47 52W RoC: +0.54

Price is sitting around ~$60k while Kalman fair value is near ~$93k. That puts BTC at a ~35.9% discount to on-chain value. The important part: The model is not seeing a premium market. It is not seeing euphoria. It is still classifying this as a Discount regime with ~99.996% probability. NUPL and MVRV remain washed out on a z-score basis, which means the on-chain structure is closer to stress/value than late-cycle overheating. But the forward path is not immediately bullish. Projection medians: 30D: ~$48.1k 60D: ~$77.4k 90D: ~$110.6k That shape matters. The model is saying BTC is structurally undervalued, but the discount may not resolve in a straight line. Near-term downside can still happen before the larger mean-reversion path opens up. My read: This is not a top signal. This is not a clean breakout signal. It is a deep-value signal with weak short-term confirmation. Bitcoin's future setup is asymmetric here, but price still needs to confirm the on-chain discount.

Still pretty much my base case for $BTC over the coming months. The lower we go, the better the asymmetric opportunity becomes. That said, until a proper base starts forming around these lows, happy to sit on my hands.

Global liquidity is currently sitting around $147.4T. More importantly, short-term momentum is improving, with the 12-week RoC at +2.14 versus the 52-week RoC at +0.55. That means liquidity is beginning to reaccelerate again. But this is still not a clean, broad-based expansion phase. Under the surface, US liquidity remains mixed. The Fed is still emphasizing ample reserves, and the balance sheet is no longer acting like the same persistent headwind it was during the harder QT phase. But the Treasury General Account remains elevated, which drains reserves from the banking system, while the reverse repo buffer is much smaller than it was in prior years. That makes the system more sensitive. Japan is another key pressure point. The BoJ has raised rates and is still reducing JGB purchases over time, which means one of the largest global liquidity anchors is no longer providing the same passive support. However, the BoJ also made clear it can respond if long-term yields rise too quickly, so Japan remains both a tightening force and a potential liquidity backstop in stress. This is why the current liquidity backdrop is constructive, but not fully confirmed. Bitcoin continues to lag relative to the improvement in global liquidity momentum. That divergence matters. Either BTC catches up to the liquidity impulse, or liquidity momentum stalls before price can respond. For now, the direction of travel remains positive, but the next step is confirmation from the slower trend. If the 12-week RoC continues rising and pulls the 52-week RoC higher, the setup becomes much harder to dismiss. Liquidity is improving. Bitcoin is lagging. Global Liquidity: $147.4T 12W RoC: +2.14 52W RoC: +0.55

Been a bit inactive here, mostly enjoying driving this beauty that arrived recently. Never stopped working or participating in the market, just operating at ~60% capacity for a while. Honestly, it's surreal. Five years ago, I started studying markets. Four years ago, I started actively participating in them. I've made heaps of money and lost heaps of money, but the lessons learned along the way have been invaluable. For the past three years, I've only taken action when my systems tell me to. Over time, that approach completely changed the way I look at markets - and ultimately changed my life for the better. Trading has allowed me to significantly improve both my own lifestyle and that of my family, something I'm genuinely grateful for. Funny enough, I once thought about dropping everything and pursuing trading alone. That would've been a massive mistake, lmao. Keeping my 9-5, building side businesses, and letting trading grow alongside them was probably one of the best decisions I've ever made. And now, slowly transitioning away from full-time work and into part-time is becoming a legitimate reality. None of this happened overnight. It came from years of small wins, countless mistakes, staying curious, and refusing to quit when things got tough. Along the way, I've been fortunate enough to meet some incredible people in this industry who were generous enough to share their knowledge and ideas. So what's the point of this post? I guess what I'm trying to say is that smart and hard work really do pay off. Just not overnight. Break your big goals down into smaller milestones, learn to genuinely enjoy the journey, and keep showing up. And, over time, the results tend to take care of themselves. Anyways... happy weekend everyone. Don't forget to hug your loved ones and enjoy life a bit!

Global liquidity increased by approximately $0.7T this week, bringing total liquidity to roughly $146.6T (+0.5%). More importantly, momentum continues to improve, although the pace of expansion remains modest. Liquidity itself remains elevated, but levels alone rarely drive markets forward. What matters most is whether liquidity is accelerating fast enough to support sustained risk-taking, and so far the evidence points to a gradual reacceleration rather than a full-fledged expansion phase. That distinction matters. Historically, stronger and more durable rallies tend to occur when liquidity momentum is clearly accelerating. Until then, markets are more prone to sharp swings, fragile sentiment, and periods of divergence between asset prices and underlying liquidity conditions. Bitcoin continues to lag relative to what the liquidity backdrop would normally imply, but these divergences have historically resolved one way or another - either through stronger asset prices or weaker liquidity momentum. For now, the direction of travel remains constructive. The trend is improving. Confirmation is the next step. Global Liquidity: $146.6T (+0.5%)

bitcoin:native Don't think we get much action outside of this little range going into the weekend. Don't let your impatience put you in a bad spot here, it's totally fine to sit through this PA if you don't have a system to trade it with.

It's a market for SDCA enjoyers, imo. More confluence to keep placing those bids.

Bitcoin continues to struggle to keep up. While global liquidity momentum is still improving slightly, a positive cross has yet to occur, leaving markets without the acceleration typically seen during stronger risk-on environments. Liquidity itself remains elevated, but levels alone rarely drive markets forward. What matters is whether liquidity is expanding fast enough to fuel risk-taking, and so far that tailwind remains absent. As a result, rallies may continue to be short-lived, volatility elevated, and sentiment fragile. The global liquidity trend isn't dead, but the fuel needed to sustain it hasn't fully returned. Global Liquidity declined by ~$0.49T (-0.34%) this week.

Both Liquidity Fair Oscillators (medium and long-term) sent a buy signal yesterday. Still thinking we go lower before we go higher, but either way - both of these firing at the same time usually leads towards a reversal over a longer duration. In short, more signs for potential base forming.

$BTC failed to close below the yearly low at 60.2k on the 4H timeframe. That's a constructive sign. As mentioned in the previous post, I still think we see lower prices before this is over. Nevertheless, this is another data point suggesting a base may be forming. We've already endured a prolonged downtrend, and from my POV, every move lower improves the risk/reward for an asymmetric upside trade. On that note, Cycle Bands just flashed an oversold signal for the first time since 2023.

This is exactly what I tell my friends, when they start complaining before even scratching the surface, and it's crazy how difficult those two sentences are to absorb. But it genuinely doesn't get more accurate than this. You don't need big capital to learn how to trade. In fact, not starting with a big account is an advantage in itself. Pick an approach and study it. Build a rule-based system around it. Backtest it and calculate its EV. If negative: change it and backtest again If positive: forward test it with a ~$100 test account. You only bring meaningful capital once you confirm its EV is positive in real time. I'm writing this and laughing at the thought of it. Trading is not easy, but it really is this simple.