I used to tweet in support of Julian Assange's freedom. From now on, everything is possible. Animal lovers can visit me @insighthound2.

Sofia, Bulgaria
Joined September 2020
For the Others... #AnimalRights #Genocides
1
2
4
1,363
As someone who wrote an article literally titled "Why Mearsheimer is wrong on China" (arnaudbertrand.substack.com/…), it's clear I'm no diehard fanboy of the guy. However, on Ukraine, honesty requires recognizing that he was more right than most, starting with predicting the war in the first place. At the beginning of the war I wrote a long thread listing all the strategic thinkers who predicted it (xitter.cf/RnaudBertrand/status/1…), and Mearsheimer's prediction really stands out as the most complete, almost like a script of what followed. It is true, though, that since the war started, he's sounded a bit like a broken record in announcing Ukraine's imminent collapse, which hasn't exactly materialized. He has this bad habit of running everything through the iron laws (according to him) of great-power competition, the very same framework that leads him astray on China. A framework that, as per his own admission, doesn't leave any room for the individual characteristics of a state: as he himself puts it in his book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics “The theory pays little attention to individuals or domestic political considerations such as ideology. It tends to treat states like black boxes or billiard balls”. Which is very unnuanced: it’s painfully obvious to any student of history that there is more to geopolitics than raw power, and that a nation’s history, culture, sense of itself, contemporary zeitgeist and ideology are absolutely critical in shaping its behavior. In many ways, Mearsheimer's "offensive realism" is the lazy man's approach to geopolitics: it spares you the trouble of reading a country’s history or understanding how its people see the world. Mearsheimer actually tacitly recognizes this. If you listen to him on his own country, the US, what he is ironically very good at predicting is how they WON'T follow his theory: in the same breath, he’ll tell you the US should stop wasting resources in Europe and the Middle East to focus on China, and that it won’t, because of the Israel lobby, a crusading liberal ideology and the groupthink of the "blob". In other words, because of domestic politics, ideology and individuals: precisely what his theory tells you ought to be ignored. Which shows that when it’s a country he actually knows from the inside, he has no trouble seeing that the black box/billiard ball is in fact a living, breathing nation in all its complexity and nuance. All that being said, what is his main point on Ukraine? Famously, and bluntly, that “the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked.” With about a fifth of its territory under Russian control, about half a million Ukrainian casualties (russiamatters.org/news/russi…), a population that has shrunk from almost 42 million before the war to around 29 million in government-controlled areas (globaloffice.org.ua/en/nasel…), 14% of its housing stock damaged or destroyed (thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc…), an economy a fifth smaller than before the war in real terms (gmk.center/en/infographic/uk…), and a state whose entire civilian budget is financed by foreign aid (ces.org.ua/en/tracker-econom…), it’s hard to think of a more fitting word. Ukraine is, factually, wrecked. Still fighting, with a courage and resilience no black-box theory could have predicted, but wrecked. I don’t think anyone can seriously argue otherwise. The most direct responsibility lies with Russia, which made the choice to invade. But nobody - on either side - can be happy with that outcome, or deny that more could have been done to avoid it. Which is, when you strip it down to its essence, the gist of what Mearsheimer is saying. It's not that sophisticated but it's also common sense, and probably the most humanistic position one could have held: for all his talk of black boxes, he turned out to be the one most concerned with the people inside them. So, no, long story short: Mearsheimer hasn’t “discredited himself over Ukraine”. The ones who should worry about their credibility are those who led Ukraine down the very primrose path he warned about, and still haven’t had the decency to admit where it took the country.
Can't think of a contemporary scholar who has so discredited himself and his work as Mearsheimer has done over Ukraine.
144
312
44
1,884
142,614
Alina Lilova retweeted
UPDATE: The EU Council sent me a letter with its decision NOT to lift the sanctions on me. That means at least another year under sanctions. The reasons they give should be a warning to everyone about where European authoritarianism is going.
97
1,582
172
4,144
198,702
Alina Lilova retweeted
Leonid has been one of the very best commentators on the war in Ukraine, and one of the most perceptive on the EU's march towards authoritarian repression. He has been expelled from an EU Member State with no judicial due process, in a flagrant breach of rule of law and the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights which all Member State authorities are obliged, by law, to observe. What is happening to him is an absolute outrage, and a dark day for freedom of speech and freedom of thought in the EU. European politicians must not shy away from denouncing and challenging it out of fear or cowardice.
I can now confirm that yesterday I was notified of my expulsion from Latvia where I lived for 12 years. This, I believe, is a long-brewing revenge by far right politicians for my investigation into their links to Russian neo-Nazis who found refuge in Kyiv and who circulated the manifesto of Christchurch shooter in 2019. It is also a punishment for my commentary on the Russian aggression in Ukraine and for Pavel Sheremet investigation. The notification doesn’t point to any specific misdemeanours or statements which prompted the decision. I was declared persona non grata, a status designed for diplomats who enjoy immunity from prosecution, not for ordinary people. This was done - as far right politicians who spearheaded the decision openly admit - in order to deny me justice in the Latvian court system: PNG status cannot be appealed in courts. This makes me conclude that I am facing political persecution. For me it is a huge personal tragedy. I am being evicted from my only beloved home, deprived of my circle of friendship and support. I love Latvia, the land of my ethnic Latvian ancestors, and have no sense of revenge. I will always remain pro-Latvian. It makes me immensely sad that high positions in the Latvian government have been captured by forces whose closest political relation is Putin and who are using Putin’s aggression in Ukraine as a pretext for eroding the rule of law and democracy in the European Union. My stance on the war in Ukraine remains unchanged. I condemn the Russian aggression and support Ukraine’s sovereignty over occupied territories. Ukraine is a wound in my heart, not a source of political gain as it is for my persecutors. But I’ll continue to criticise Western countries for mishandling this conflict and not acting in the best interests of the Ukrainian people. I shall not be gagged. Shame on those who understand what is happening but look away or buy into smear campaign waged against me by the pro-war lobby and far right info dumps. One day, they’ll come for you, too. Attn @RSF_inter @ECPMF
59
309
14
963
27,121
Illustration by Victor Holub
11
138
8
981
14,451
Alina Lilova retweeted
Maurice Ravel serenading his cats by Sam Kalda
1
111
6
652
7,700
Maybe the Nobel Committee is trying to restore its credibility after awarding last year's prize to a Venezuelan ideologically aligned with Trump just before Trump attacked her country, kidnapped the head of state and took control of the oil reserves (further strangling Cuba).
Replying to @tparsi
The same Nobel committee that gave cover to Trump's coup in Venezuela last year.
2
87
how is this real life
4
1
30
1,660
Alina Lilova retweeted
One has to be such an insecure loser to go after the mildest liberal Leonid. ‘Russian apologist’ LOL if by that you mean, Leonid just wants Russia to be a liberal democracy with liberal values, transform Russia instead of destroying Russia. He’s anti-Putin, anti-invasion; pro-Russia democracy and pro-Ukraine democracy and sovereignty. Truly pathetic to go after this man.
60
34
6
283
10,626
Alina Lilova retweeted
Some notes on my situation in Latvia: What I am observing at the moment is a threat of very severe extrajudicial punishment for speaking my mind and providing original opinions and analysis. The reason they opt for persona non grata status is the desire to deny me justice in the court system where the case - as senior politicians involved in attacking openly admit - won’t hold water. This is why I interpret the situation as an instance of political persecution. The threat is accompanied with a character assassination campaign involving far right infowar and fake news outfits which deliberately distort my views on the conflict. The goal of the attack is to destroy my life and to put a gag on me as a notable voice in public debate on the Russo-Ukranian war.
449
536
81
2,952
387,820
Journalists-are-terrorists claim debunked #GazaGenocide‌
🚨I checked every single name on Israel's list of 170 Gazan "terrorist" journalists. It's the most sloppy shameless fraud possible🧵 In the overwhelming majority of those listed, the IDF presents ZERO credible evidence. In most of them, their pages are literally blank.
1
2
81
Alina Lilova retweeted
On October 4, 2006, @JulianAssange founded @wikileaks. Over the last 20 years, Julian, the #WikiLeaks journalists, and the community around them have been a beacon of global resistance for those fighting for a more humane future. Happy birthday, @WikiLeaks!
2
162
5
304
4,048
The vast majority of farmed animals' genes (not just chickens) are "owned" by corporations. Can you imagine some creature claiming to own you and own your grandparents and parents and their DNA... #WorldAnimalDay
I was having dinner last night with a friend working in the chicken industry and I learned something that blew my mind. Where do chicken farmers get their chickens? Most of us would say "from their existing chickens obviously, they breed and lay eggs." That's what I thought too, but turns out I was dead wrong. The reality is that the immense majority of meat chicken farmers in the world get their chickens from one of 2 companies: Cobb-Vantress, owned by Tyson Foods, or Aviagen, controlled by Germany's EW Group (the Wesjohann family). They have a concept specific to the industry called grandparent stock: what you buy from these 2 companies is - essentially - a bunch of chickens with planned obsolescence. The way it works is that each company keeps "pure" bloodlines on its own farms. Let's label them A, B, C and D. Those are the crown jewels - these companies' IP - and they never leave the building. What they sell you are the "grandparents": chicks from those four lines, but each line in only one sex. You get A roosters but no A hens, B hens but no B roosters, C roosters but no C hens, D hens but no D roosters. Which means you can never breed more A, B, C or D birds yourself. What you can do is cross them. A roosters with B hens give you the fathers, C roosters with D hens give you the mothers - these are the "parents". The parents then give you the chickens that actually end up on our plates, slaughtered at around 6 weeks. And that's the end of the road. If you tried breeding those chickens, their chicks would be a complete genetic lottery: still chickens, sure, but without the genetic properties that make them commercially viable. They'd grow slower and less evenly, you'd have to sell them for way more than your competitors, and your business would be dead. So you have to go back to Cobb or Aviagen for new grandparents. Forever. Why buy grandparents at all, and raise 2 generations just to sell the third? The answer is scale. If you buy say 100 grandparents, each of them gives you around 50 parents, and each parent hen then gives you around 150 chicks: from those 100 grandparents, you have yourself some 600,000 chickens whose meat you can sell. It makes no sense for these 2 companies to sell the final chickens directly. They'd have to hatch tens of billions of chicks a year and ship them all over the world. Much easier to simply sell the grandparents and let farmers do the multiplying and pay for the farms, the feed and the labor. And, you knew this was coming, there is also a China angle here: as you can imagine, China isn't too pleased to be dependent on foreign companies for such a basic food item as chicken. So China did what China does best: long-term planning. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs launched a plan for "national broiler genetic improvement" (2021-2035), which aims for domestically bred breeds to make up at least 60% of the domestic market by 2035 (globaltimes.cn/page/202307/1…). And, of course, they're ahead of the plan. As of 2025, homegrown breeds held more than 30% of the market: halfway to the 2035 goal in just four years (agripost.cn/2026/08/17/china…). Can you escape all this as a consumer? Sure, you can buy organic or Label Rouge chicken, from slower-growing breeds raised for at least 81 days instead of 6 weeks, for two to three times the price. Except, plot twist: the genetics behind most of those slow-growing birds come from a French company called Hubbard... which has belonged to Aviagen since 2018 (euromeatnews.com/aviagen-ann…)😅 And even if you could truly escape, you wouldn't want everyone to: we'd need vast new swathes of farmland, both for the chickens and their feed. Ironically, advocating for organic free-range chicken for everyone is one of the worst positions one can take for the planet's resources. If you want to minimize your environmental footprint, the counterintuitive answer is to buy the cheapest supermarket chicken - or eat less meat, of course. As my friend was saying last night, you may not like the way this industry works but, at the end of the day, it's what puts affordable protein on the plates of billions of people, using proportionally fewer resources than any other way of raising chicken.
1
1
98
On World Animal Protection Day, let's honor chickens for who they really are (not something that a factory farm employee would get a chance to witness, as their birds are likely to have gone insane): "Chickens are Smarter Than You Think" share.google/EggIJigpXjrViih…
58
Alina Lilova retweeted
On the Bunker State and the Ideological Function of Domestic Narratives A central characteristic of what I call the Bunker State—a concept I am actively researching and detailing still—is the emergence of a total ideology that is openly dichotomous, supremacist, and latently violent. This is coming to the fore largely because capital no longer faces systemic competition from an alternative and coherent bloc at scale; there is no longer an imperial necessity to persuade or buy domestic peace. Thus, the unvarnished coercion and ideological openness characteristic of classic colonial rule has returned. This shift carries structural implications. Just as political and economic elites are interpellated—hailed by the imperatives of capitalism and imperialism into their functional roles, shaping even their psychological makeup—the transition from unipolarity to multipolarity within a capitalist world system demands a corresponding mutation in the dominant political narrative or formation. What happens when the previous narrative of liberalism, legalism, and human rights (always an ideological veneer) weakens or is rewritten, reassembled? What becomes administratively, militarily, and socially possible? A liberal narrative can legitimate selective, technocratic rearmament. But a supremacist, perhaps even ethnonational-restorationist narrative may permit a far deeper and more effective militarization of society: conscription, mandatory sacrifice, demographic discipline, domestic repression, and the reclamation of armed violence, all understood as positive national virtues. The Systemic Function of the Pariah I am not predicting that any specific party or faction in this or that country will soon govern, nor am I claiming that elites consciously engineered these parties or factions from scratch to militarize the imperial core. Rather, I am analyzing their objective systemic role: what ideological function do these ethnonationalist forces (often excluded as pariahs) perform during the transition from a unipolar, neoliberal period toward rearmament and a more coercive, unbraked capitalism? It is their pariah status that enables them to break institutional taboos and map an ethnonational horizon, while mainstream parties selectively absorb their categories and policies without formally inviting them into government. There may therefore be a tendency not to see ethnonationalist parties, or factions within parties in the imperial core, relationally. By this I mean that they can function as ideological pressure points and an accelerator within a wider reorganization of capital accumulation, state power, historical memory, and geopolitical projection. They are symptoms and instruments of a broader structural moment. Alternative Management Proposals for the Bunker State Different actors can occupy different positions within this emerging field of remilitarization, conditional citizenship, and manufactured threat (external and internal): - Some defend Atlanticist integration; others seek an accommodation with Russia or China to secure industrial inputs. - Some prioritize market deregulation; others champion welfare chauvinism. - Some operate through established ministries and technocratic bodies; others through the party's radical flanks. Their rivalry, disagreement and tactical conflicts are real. But the mainstream Atlanticist centre and more ethnonationalist factions remain competing currents within the same structural transformation. The Integrationist Bourgeoisie in the imperial core seeks to run the Bunker State through the existing multilateral architecture—using NATO 3.0, the EU technocracy, and the fading fumes of "defending democracy" to discipline populations into accepting austerity and rearmament. The Ethnonationalist Sub-imperialists seek to run the same Bunker State by stripping away multilateral pretenses, unleashing raw revanchism, and violently disciplining the domestic sphere through border miitarization, remigration (in the crudest sense), and possibly anti-left repression (in whatever form such a left might take here and there). They fight viciously over political office, legitimacy, and rhetoric. But their mutual hostility or even hatred does not negate the total ideology of the epoch: the structural drive of the state to rearm, enforce class discipline, and transition into a warfare economy under unbraked capitalism. In other words, the ethnonationalist currents and the mainstream establishment within politics today are not polar opposites; they are alternative management proposals submitted to capital for how best to navigate this era of armed trade. (With all its contradictions, and there are many depending on the region or country.) Whether managed through bureaucratic coercion or revanchist mobilization, the structural output—the rearmed, repressive Bunker State—remains the historical trajectory. Specialists of Violence Finally, while these represent different administrative flavors of the same structural moment, this shift translates directly to the material base. I would argue that, regardless of those differences, the hailing of ethnonationalist and supremacist frameworks by the structures of the Bunker State shifts the Overton window. It also opens up what becomes acceptable in everyday life. What do I mean by that? A remilitarized Bunker State in a phase of unbraked capitalism—a phase of armed trade—creates demand for specialists of violence. As a result, the most militant elements of such movements therefore emerge more visibly in everyday life, stepping into the public sphere: recruiting, harassing and more. They are surfacing precisely because they are the prospective foot soldiers, enforcers and mercenaries of the era.
4
19
3
35
2,531
echoing this with art by Hartmut Kiewert
This quoted post is unavailable.
1
68
Alina Lilova retweeted
WTF: Do you know how the Meat Industry gets around animal cruelty laws? By referring to a particular cruel practice as “standard agricultural practice.” 👎👎 This includes castration WITHOUT PAINKILLERS. 😫
4
71
3
149
3,387
Catrin Welz-Stein (Germany) - "Walk in the Park" “No matter how little money and how few possessions you own, having a dog makes you rich.” (Louis Sabin)
8
119
9
641
8,818
Alina Lilova retweeted
The Daoist parable on Assange’s README.txt. (*AI assisted visualisation)
1
1
2
51
A very informative and interesting dialogue about the new trend toward militarization in Europe, the three reasons why the elites are subservient to the United States, the limits of 'strategic autonomy', and how nations around the world could become more independent.
How do we fight back against a machine as massive as the US-led imperial core? I recently spoke with Dae Hae-Song from the No Cold War collective to try to answer that question. Or at least provide my grain of sand to the conversation. While we spent time mapping out the terrifying reality of NATO 3.0 and the "Bunker State," we ended the conversation by focusing on the vulnerabilities of the imperial cage. A few key takeaways from our chat: Power is Relational, not Quantitative: The empire isn't invincible and its power relies on a "multi-layered cage" of SWIFT, logistics, and tech monopolies. And more importantly, you don't have to out-gun a relation; you just have to sever it. In other words, this is about the process of active decoupling. The Internal Lock: The empire relies on domestic "comprador" elites in targeted nations to keep the cage locked from the inside. Neutralizing these integrationist factions is step one for the Global South. Building a political autonomous project with the support of the bases is the way. The (European) Breaking Point: Imposing brutal austerity and a 5% GDP war-economy on the European working class will most likely to lead an inherently unstable state of affairs. The vulnerability here lies in the refusal of the masses to build, fund, and be devoured by this machine. Check out the full interview below for a deep dive into counter-planning against NATO 3.0 (and similar formations of the Bunker State): youtu.be/i1NpVvjhMuQ
2
3
206