Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Essex. On leave at the Banque de France and Paris School of Economics.

🇬🇧 / 🇫🇷
Joined October 2009
A depressing picture of the market for PhD economists. Job postings down by more han 26% relative to 2019 (down by about 25% relative to 2022). Via @cawley_john
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We are thrilled to announce that both Pavlos Balamatsias & Camila Comunello have been awarded the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics today! 🥳 Massive congratulations to both Dr Comunello and Dr Balamatsias on this momentous achievement.👏🙌#PhD #economics #essexresearch
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🧵 on Get Britain Working and why it matters The rise in people out of work due to ill health (up 1/3 to 2.8m in LFS) is mirrored in admin data on benefits. The no. of people claiming out-of-work benefits due to sickness or disability has increased by ~1m since 2020 to 3.2m
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Excited to share a new paper w/ Matthias Mertens: From Labor to Intermediates: Firm Growth, Input Substitution, and Monopsony We document, dissect, understand, draw consequences of a new stylized fact about firm growth: the shift from labor to intermediate inputs. Summary:
A new stylized fact about firm growth: The shift from labor to intermediate inputs reflects high substitution elasticity and monopsony and pushes down the labor share, from Matthias Mertens and @Schoefer_B nber.org/papers/w33172
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👋 Hi #EconTwitter! I'm happy to share that I'm on the job market this year. 🚀 In my JMP, I explore an important question: How fast do labor market adjust to technological shocks, like robots or AI? Curious? Quick thread below 👇
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I know many skeptics of prediction markets. I don't have an ideological faith in them (OK, maybe quasi ideological). But the empirical evidence is they have worked really, really, really well. And did again on Tuesday night. A short 🧵 about this remarkable picture.
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“The NHS has too many managers” latest
What? Waiting times reduced from a year to 7 weeks by employing an administrator.
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Why does innovation not translate into commercialisation in Europe? This is not only about a lack of VC funding, links between uni's and businesses. The problem for him is also demand-led: EU firms can’t grow so they don’t get financed, and then leave to the US. 5/
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First, “Europe must profoundly refocus its collective efforts on closing the innovation gap with the US and China, especially in advanced technologies” Draghi pointed out in the presser that if you strip out its tech sector, US productivity growth has been similar to Europe. 4/
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I’ve done a big update of my notes on computation for heterogeneous-agent macro. They start with the endogenous grid method and end with by solving a HANK model using sequence space Jacobians. Codes are in Julia. alisdairmckay.com/Notes/HetA…
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Our summer school is filling up, and we will shortly close for applications. If there are any latecomers we can squeeze in a few more people before July. So if you know anyone that might be interested please RT! Thanks so much for all help and support! 🙏 You are all stars! 💫
In 2024, Petr Sedlacek (@SedlacekPe) and I are again running the summer school "Tools for Macroeconomists". For more info and registration, pleases see (our brand new) webpage: sites.google.com/view/tools-… Course runs 5-9 (essentials) and 12-16 of August (advanced) Some news 👇🧵1/5
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Our 4th Junior Search and Matching workshop has just kicked off! Many thanks to the speakers and discussants -- looking forward to a great two days! Details on our website if you want to swing by.
The 4th Junior SaM programme is out!! Very exciting presentations!! More details found on the website sites.google.com/view/essexr…
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The takeaway is not: "more robustness checks." The takeaway is: "authors cannot be trusted to run their own robustness checks." We need fewer referee demands for robustness, and more replication by scholars who have no incentives to cheat.
How credible was the "credibility revolution"? How robust is empirical research in economics? We just replicated a year's worth of the American Economic Review & had economists predict robustness. Here's what we learned. econstor.eu/handle/10419/295…
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In "The Scorpion and the Frog," a trusting frog gives a scorpion a ride across a brook, only to be stung to death by his passenger upon arrival. The dying frog gasps "why?" and the scorpion replies, "I am sorry, but I couldn't resist the urge. It's my character." 1/
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The 4th Junior SaM programme is out!! Very exciting presentations!! More details found on the website sites.google.com/view/essexr…
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Truly awful jobs data today. Employment, economic inactivity as bad as depths of pandemic. The data is VERY volatile so don't read too much into short-term changes, but trend is clearly poor. And I think it shows it's the labour market holding back growth - not other way round...
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A week left to submit to the Junior SaM! 14th Apr deadline. Submit to erbjuniorsam@gmail.com. See past editions on the website. sites.google.com/view/essexr…
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Corollary: if I can't make the graph, I probably don't actually understand what the regression is estimating.
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A couple thoughts tangentially related to the EJ/JPopEcon replication discussion, both on how I learned to minimize mistakes and be a more careful reader of reduced form work. Maybe useful for early career people.
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