Tao is worried that AI will produce drugs that hit metrics but don’t actually cure the underlying disease. Does that sound familiar? That’s (most of) modern medicine! Think about optimizing for 25(OH)D and LDL metrics. That’s how you get people taking Vitamin D supplements and statins, not realizing they’re targeting (mostly) symptoms and not root causes.

You 20 years ago: "But where's the RCT?" By the time the harm is proven beyond doubt, billions of people have already lived through the experiment. Be careful with new tech and evaluate against the Lindy Effect (@nntaleb).

Countries around the world pushed LEDs and made incandescents illegal to buy. Years later: "The shock revelation that light bulbs are wrecking your metabolism." Billions of people traded their health for energy efficiency.