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Want to take a more evidence-based approach to @photofinishgame? Then bookmark this thread of bite sized articles exploring different aspects of the game. 16 blog posts with new angles and alpha. Thread: 1/17.
Fasted 2yos from szn32 of @photofinishgame. grab a microscope. Lefties first. All combos included. Loving the audacity of Tutankhamun I.
breaking news, that data didn't include the last weekend of the season where about 50% of the records were broken. sorry. corrected figures below. Pappy On the Point broke 2 records last weekend (szn32 2yo only).
Just placed a $180.00 Pick3 bet on Twin Spires Sprint!
Tail me?
🎯 Picks: 3,6,8 / 10,15,17,18 / 7,8,17
@betvibewin
🔗 beta.betvibe.win/races/seaso…
Big race day in Season 32 of @photofinishgame needs a scatterplot. Last season a great horse with average form won. Today's conditions suit the LDS horses.
Just placed a $180.00 Pick3 bet on Artemis Cup Sprint!
Tail me?
🎯 Picks: 5,16,17 / 2,4,6,17 / 1,12,13
@betvibewin
🔗 beta.betvibe.win/races/seaso…
Some new contender 2yos in week 2.5 of season 32 @photofinishgame Trueskill ratings, or were they just lucky times? (#2 ;p)
Just placed a $120.00 Trifecta bet on GRADED Road to the Twin Spires Sprint R77!
Tail me?
🎯 Picks: 4, 10, 11, 13 (Boxed)
@betvibewin #betvibe
🔗 beta.betvibe.win/races/seaso…
Just placed a $120.00 Trifecta bet on GRADED Road to the Twin Spires Sprint R77!
Tail me?
🎯 Picks: 4,10,11,13 / 4,10,11,13 / 4,10,11,13
@betvibewin #betvibe
🔗 beta.betvibe.win/races/seaso…
How do conditions preferences work in @photofinishgame? a. linearly b. weirdly (check out 0 fast stars performing worst across all types on fast tracks). Also 3 fast stars become a big hinderance on sloppy tracks. Finally yielding is not a mid-point, its a different multi-verse where 0 stars live and thrive (fast and slow don't get say half their usual bonus - stars are bad at yielding).
AIPaddock.com retweeted
I added series points to horses being entered in claiming races now.
I also added L28 earnings but that won't populate until tomorrow.
This does make the UI a bit busy in the CSV view... Let me know what you think.
week 1 season 32 of @photofinishgame trueskill ratings for 3yos. Who are the early favourites for the majors?
week 1 (too early) trueskill ratings for season 32 of @photofinishgame for 2yos. Looks pretty competitive out there.
Whilst you wait, here are the top 20-30 S+ and SS- who consistently produce foals above expectation (number are grades above expected - negative means below expected). Don't ask me why columns are in alphabetical order.
and if you want to know what this all means I asked gpt-5 to explain:
Here’s what your analysis has revealed so far, simplified into bullet points:
Foals are centred around the midpoint of their parents’ grades.
→ On average, kids don’t beat or lag their parents — they regress toward the middle.
Parity matters (odd vs even parent gaps):
Odd gaps → midpoint lands exactly on a grade → foals cluster tightly there.
Even gaps → midpoint is between grades → foals split ~50/50 across the two nearest grades.
Overshooting is real but conditional:
Foals sometimes exceed the better parent.
Overshoot is common when parents are close (gap 0–1).
Overshoot probability collapses as the gap widens (≈0 beyond gap 3).
Variance is fixed:
The spread around the midpoint is ~1 grade band regardless of gap.
This is not what a “pure normal distribution” would do — instead, it fits better with DNA recombination mechanics.
Recombination model fits:
Parents contribute discrete “DNA slots.”
When parents are similar, foals can stack high slots and overshoot.
When parents are far apart, foals average down and rarely beat either.
OU (subgrade) metric works:
By converting grades to numbers, you can measure hidden fidelity inside each band.
Foals can exceed parents’ OU, showing “hidden monsters” even within the same visible grade.
Sire effects are measurable:
Some sires consistently produce foals better than expected, even after correcting for parent gap.
Others underperform.
This gives a way to rank sires by true breeding value, not just by visible grade.
**not my words, this is from the AI overlords.















