Si esto es cierto, el mensaje a los oferentes de crédito es:
“Salgan corriendo”.
Riesgo-país e independencia judicial, anyone?
La estructura de incentivos deja muy poco margen para una alternativa seria y moderada.
Hay tanto en juego —jueces amigos, @BancoCentral_AR sometido, periodistas ensobrados, etc— que el sistema **necesariamente** atrae a demagogos de todo tipo
Amigos como están....
Generalmente quiero ser lo más objetivo en mis comentarios y estamos a sólo un año de las elecciones presidenciales y nada cambió.
La tercera opción no aparece a la vista con fuerza y si la hay ni tiene apoyo de su propio partido y hoy el panorama sigue siendo la polaridad....
Es Milei con el 32% contra el peronismo ( no importa quien sea el candidato por el peron peron q grande sos viste?
Y el peronismo tiene 36%
Y otras fuerzas aparece Bergman con un 7%
Un 15% dice q va votar en blanco y el 10% indeciso....
El panorama es terrible y por ahora nada va cambiar a mi opinión.
No existe una idea nacional q atraiga y todo esta fragmentado....
Es lo que hay y lo q merecemos
A esta altura necesita una solución urgente 🚨:
. Dejar la parte ejecutiva del Gobierno a un Jefe/a de gabinete con autoridad
. Echar a su hermana y a S. Caputo
. Abandonar el insulto y dedicarse a fortalecer la independencia de la justicia y del @BancoCentral_AR
Agustin Mackinlay retweeted
In Cajamarca you can visit the ‘ransom room’ of the Inca Atahualpa. In this short video I explain what happened there. youtube.com/shorts/aCHnYBDGi…
Agustin Mackinlay retweeted
A procession in Cajamarca. Celebrations are held across the country throughout October for Peru’s Mes Morado (Purple Month), in which devotees dressed in purple praise Christ in his aspect of El Señor de los Milagros (Lord of Miracles)
Skin in the game & solvencia fiscal [4]
Con lo cual volvemos a la cuestión del honor y su vínculo con el costo del capital.
No figura en los manuales de economía. No importa: sigue siendo esencial
frenosycontrapesos.blogspot.…
Skin in the game & solvencia fiscal [3]
Cuando en 1810 los suecos eligen rey a Jean-Baptiste Bernadotte, el general francés aporta su fortuna personal y un préstamo de £300,000 a 5% para evitar un default.
Sus descendientes ocupan el trono de Suecia 🇸🇪 desde entonces
Skin in the game & solvencia fiscal [2]
La culpa es siempre **del otro** en una república: los mercados, la globalización, los k, Macron, Biden, etc.
En una monarquía, en cambio, hay skin in the game: un default llevaría al desprestigio completa de una familia de carne y hueso
Skin in the game & solvencia fiscal [1]
Gran cantidad de repúblicas en plena crisis fiscal: ahora Francia 🇫🇷 y Estados Unidos 🇺🇸.
Monarquías dominan la lista de países AAA.
Idea: la responsabilidad es nítida en monarquías, difusa en repúblicas
agustinmackinlay.substack.co…
Skin in the game & solvencia fiscal [1]
Gran cantidad de repúblicas en plena crisis fiscal: ahora Francia 🇫🇷 y Estados Unidos 🇺🇸.
Monarquías dominan la lista de países AAA.
Idea: la responsabilidad es nítida en monarquías, difusa en repúblicas
agustinmackinlay.substack.co…
Ni una palabra sobre el caos institucional y su impacto sobre el costo del capital:
. Independencia judicial bajo cuestión
. Gobierno a cargo de Karina Milei
. Periodistas obviamente ensobrados
. Manejo estalinista del @BancoCentral_AR
. Nula rendición de cuentas
“El futuro de Milei”, mi nota hoy en @LANACION. - lanacion.com.ar/politica/el-…
Agustin Mackinlay retweeted
Heavy, serious response from a Parisian. Read it.
As usual, people are looking for deep reasons, but I think there isn't any for the most part and the real explanation is much more boring.
There is a very high level of general dissatisfaction in France at the moment, mostly due to anemic economic growth and inflation, especially with the price of gas. In addition, Macron has been in power for almost 10 years and is very unpopular, which only adds to general dissatisfaction.
The high school protests, although they were already fizzling out, have provided motivation for the left by fueling the hope that it could ride out that wave to energize its own protests.
So there was a fertile ground for protests, which are pretty common in France after summer. Still, while the protests were large, they were hardly impressive by French standards. What set them apart from traditional French social movements is how violent they were.
Contrary to popular mythology, French protests are not generally violent. France has a very strong protest and strike culture, but the meme about how we riots all the time is overdone.
Traditionally, protests are traditionally organized by unions, which coordinate with the authorities beforehand and have a security service that takes care of troublemakers during the protest.
This is why the violence always starts toward the end of the protests, after the official demonstration has disbanded and people begin to scatter, because that's when it's harder for the police to control the situation.
Protests have increasingly led to violence in recent years because they have become more spontaneous and are more often organized by people on social media, but also and relatedly because increasingly far-left groups and children of immigrants opportunistically join them to cause mayhem and loot.
I keep seeing a lot of people who are depicting those kids as "Islamists" and ideologically motivated actors, but I think it's a complete misreading of the situation in my opinion. This isn't an "Islamist uprising" or whatever nonsense people are talking about.
Their actions are opportunistic and driven by a nihilistic culture that is very similar to what you see in Black ghettos in the US, where anti-social behavior is totally normalized, with an added Islamic veneer due to their family background.
This nihilism and their family background makes them susceptible to Islamist indoctrination, which is why terrorists were almost always delinquent before they turned to religion, but most of them aren't ideologues and those who are don't loot stores.
As I explained before, the police often don't intervene because they are overwhelmed and they have instructions from the government not to, because politicians are terrified that if they do a kid will be killed and they will have full-blown race riots on their hands.
So what they do instead is contain the violence geographically and arrest the most violent participants later at home, when the risk that the cops will kill one of them is low, using video/photo evidence.
Eventually things will fizzle out, in part because the violence will discredit the movement and actually make it easier for the government to deal with it, but this tactic is very costly since we are effectively accepting that every now and then far-left activists and immigrant thugs will just burn and loot while the police watch.
The problem from the government's point of view is that, if they use repression by telling the cops to break skulls, they will kill some of the kids and this will result in a massive backlash, leading to more protests and probably even more violence.
I think we need to hand out serious prison time to protesters who are caught engaging in violence to deter this kind of shit, but the government has a very limited ability to do so, because justice is independent, courts are full of left-wing judges who refuse to do that, they are already overwhelmed with cases, prisons are full and we are broke.
So there isn't one single explanation, it's just a combination of factors, including random stuff that nobody could predict. The context explains why something like that *can* happen, but it doesn't explain why it happens when it does. Again it's probably random for the most part.
It would take years to solve the problem even if we started now, which we won't because our politics is completely broken, because it would require getting our budget in order, implementing reasonable economic policies, fixing our immigration and justice system, etc. We are cooked to be honest.
Bravo ! El Reino de Dinamarca 🇩🇰 —rating AAA, deuda/PBI 27%— considera aumentar la edad de jubilación a 70 años.
Mientras tanto, los demagogos de la República francesa 🇫🇷 —deuda/PBI 119%— prometen bajarla a 60 años.
Monarquía es **res publica**
La necesidad del caos.
Europa 🇪🇺 muy vulnerable frente a la máquina de propaganda de Vladimir Vladimirovich, cada vez más apoyado por el caudillo Trumperonista
frenosycontrapesos.blogspot.…
Prenez quelques minutes et écoutez #Glucksmann
Il ne s'agit pas de savoir si on le soutient ou pas, il s'agit de mettre en lumière l'ingérence russe de la saloperie #Poutine sur les démocraties européennes. Ce que dit Glucksmann est édifiant et terrifiant. #Presidentielles2027
PM de Singapur 🇸🇬 viaja sin lujos. Totalmente a contramano de nuestra cultura política peronizante y del presidente argentino neo-menemista.
"Pero no Mack, la confianza y el honor no tienen nada que ver con el riesgo-país"
La des-peronización de Hungría 🇭🇺, el gran acontecimiento institucional de 2026.
Objetivos: independencia judicial, libertad de prensa, ingreso al @ecb.
"The country is celebrating a renewal of hope."
¡Bravissimo!
Hungary is once again at a crossroads theglobeandmail.com/opinion/…
Es cierto que la nota de independencia judicial de Singapur 🇸🇬 bajó en los últimos surveys.
No hay libertad de prensa.
MAS es independiente y de gran nivel técnico (*).
Estuviste en Singapur 🇸🇬?
(*) Punto que a menudo me recuerda @Manu_CB
Replying to @agumack @BancoCentral_AR
No es la forma es el contenido.
Singapur es una dictadura y tiene la mejor calificación. No hay nada de lo que nombras.
Sr. @JMilei: Usted no puede ejercer el Gobierno ejecutivo y **al mismo tiempo** su auto-impuesta misión de liderazgo.
Jethro se lo explica a Moisés: es una cuestión de división del trabajo. Si no lo hace, no habrá paz. Ni para Usted, ni para el pueblo
frenosycontrapesos.blogspot.…




















