$SMCI preannouncement implies earnings 75-100% above consensus.
$CRWV
Using a 12 month trailing revenue run rate for analysis of a construction business is either an attempt to mislead or poor analysis. 26 will end near 20 billion and 27 near 30. With much improved margins.
Sorry I under exaggerated my claim on how bad the $CRWV situation is. They have $11 billion of debt maturing and $2.6 billion of interest due by next year, while operating at a loss and only having $10 billion in revenue. I mistakenly claimed only $500 million interest. I have to call out my mistakes
Executives cashing out $11 billion + of stock as Ai bubble delusion and fraud goes on.
$CRWV owes $13.6 billion by next year
Makes $10 billion revenue
Has no access to credit
Is worth $50 billion
That’s the level of fraud and delusion in Ai
'Burried" again. As before, biggest bubble in finanace is his substack.
HOLLYWOOD-MINTED “EINSTEIN OF FINANCE” MICHAEL BURRY SOLD $LULU AT AN 8-YEAR LOW, LOCKING IN A HEAVY LOSS
Burry first showed LULU in the second quarter of 2025, when the stock closed the quarter near $237. He held it for roughly 15 months and sold on October 5, 2026, as it fell to about $91, its lowest level since May 2018, an 8-year low.
He saw artificial intelligence as a bubble and shorted it, while opening a large position in $LULU and staying stubborn for a long time. That stubbornness cost Burry dearly.
Michael Burry’s biggest disadvantage in the stock market is that he is far too stubborn. He is not open-minded like George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller.
Stanley Druckenmiller, in an interview with Jack D. Schwager in The New Market Wizards (HarperBusiness, 1992, p. 196):
“Soros is the best loss taker I’ve ever seen. He doesn’t care whether he wins or loses on a trade. If a trade doesn’t work, he’s confident enough about his ability to win on other trades that he can easily walk away from the position.”
This is not financial advice.
$MU biggest earnings upside coming for fiscal q2 27. With their regular sandbag q1 will be 40+. Next quarter has HBM repricing. Will be well over $50 EPS. Close to $55
If $IREN is currently at 1 billion ARR that’s 500m for second half of this year. If at 4b at year end that’s 2b till June 27.
2.5billion. MAFF
Replying to @Merrill_MG
The sell-side research on this name is a joke. For example, how do you swallow a $4B YE (Dec) 2026 “ARR” if your FY 2027 revenue estimate is only $2.5B? And how is your D&A estimate for FY 2028 ($1.9B) LOWER than for FY 2027 ($2.3B)…?! $IREN
Damage control
Sam Altman admits he was wrong on AI's timeline and says society and the economy will adapt more slowly
"I thought when we got to GPT-4, which was back in 2023, that very quickly after that there was going to be much more disruption, software businesses up for grabs right away, than it turned out to be."
"I think I was wrong about a few things, but one in terms of the speed: the economy just has so much inertia."
"People keep doing the same things, buying from the same company, wanting to use their tools the same way. I think this is actually a positive in many ways, and it's going to make this big transition go smoother and slower. I'm grateful for it."
"But it means we've all been too ambitious on timelines. Even with this incredible technology, society and the economy will adapt more slowly."
Sam trying to stop Dario’s foolish take over the world narrative. He recognizes the public relations disaster that is.
Everyone seems to hear “Sam says adoption is slow” as bearish.
I hear: this is a much healthier transition than rapid, messy disruption, and **all of this demand is showing up before adoption has really started.**
The OAI numbers reported last week were bananas but somehow already forgotten.
Good reminder that price drives narrative and vibe. Two months of bad AI price action and the animal spirits have turned into a rush to call the top.
Hmm. Let’s see if there are any differences.
- What was $ORCL multiple when they laid out the RPO?
- Who is funding straight out of cashflow and who needs the debt markets?
-Who’s cutler base has better balance sheets ?
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