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Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) profile picture

Adrian Gray

@adrian_gray

Center-Right Strategist. AGC Research. Previously: George W. Bush Admin, RNC

 New York, NY
linkedin.com/in/adriangray
Joined September 2008
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“Other containers” (like rubber bands).
Tara Rosenblum (@tararosenblum) profile pictureTara Rosenblum@tararosenblum3h
BREAKING : Sources in Westchester now tell me some of the emergency bags were overflowing today at polling sites and that ballots had to be placed in other containers. I was told “there are taped up cardboard boxes of ballots. it’s crazy“ but we’re told all ballots are secure.
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2026 Exit Poll: Vote today was to… Support Trump 16 Oppose Trump 43 Trump not a factor 41 2018 Support 26 Oppose 39 Not a factor 33 2010 Support 23 Oppose 37 Not a factor 38 2006 Support 22 Oppose 36 Not a factor 39
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Voting in Westchester is a mess right now. Collecting raw ballots by hand. Some people are told to vote later. Hopefully they figure it out soon.
Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) profile pictureAdrian Gray
@adrian_gray13h
Replying to @lawler4ny
They are asking voters to fold their ballots in half and hand it to poll workers. I have voted for decades, never see anything like this.
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In 1930, Republicans won a 2-seat majority in House. It was gone by the time the House was convened into session.
The Downballot on Bluesky: @the-downballot.com (@downballotnews) profile pictureThe Downballot on Bluesky: @the-downballot.com@downballotnews17 Nov 2024
With GOP resignations, though, the margins get ever tighter. If Dems flip both #CA13 & #CA45, Rs would hold just a 217-215 edge on the House floor while we await special elections
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What remains of the Blue Dog Democrats
Image from Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray)
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It appears as if most of Trump’s gains with Latino voters has come from married Latino men Married Latino Men 2020: D+26 2024: R+21 All other Latino voters 2020: D+21 2024: D+21
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The neighbor method has been used by a few pollsters in recent cycles (and decades ago by social researchers to measure racism).
Matt Bateman (@mbateman) profile pictureMatt Bateman
@mbateman6 Nov 2024
The French Polymarket whale commissioned polls with a specific alternate methodology, the “neighbor method” 1. What a baller 2. What a killer example of how betting markets can surface contrarian, high quality signals
Image from Matt Bateman (@mbateman)
Image from Matt Bateman (@mbateman)
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CC Echelon Insights @PatrickRuffini xitter.cf/echeloninsights/status…
Echelon Insights (@EchelonInsights) profile pictureEchelon Insights
@EchelonInsights1 Nov 2024
Replying to @EchelonInsights
Voters are also more likely to say, by a 48-37 margin, they think most of their neighbors will be voting for Trump. This includes a 23-point margin (51-28) among Independents.
Image from Echelon Insights (@EchelonInsights)
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Democrat ad spending by issue (%) Abortion 32 Healthcare 14 Immigration 13
Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) profile pictureAaron Blake
@AaronBlake6 Nov 2024
In 2022, Dems won voters who said abortion should be “legal in most cases” by 22 points, 60-38. Today, those voters split 49-49.
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2024 was an “Indictment of political information complex” Well said
Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) profile pictureScott Jennings
@ScottJenningsKY6 Nov 2024
Revenge of the average, everyday working class American. My reaction to Trump’s crushing victory on @cnn
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According to NYT estimate Iowa: R+13 New York: D+13
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9:40pm in 2016: 54% Trump 9:40pm in 2024: 68% Trump
The Upshot (@UpshotNYT) profile pictureThe Upshot
@UpshotNYT9 Nov 2016
Nail-biter. nyti.ms/2flxGVD
Image from The Upshot (@UpshotNYT)
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White/non-white share of the electorate from EARLY exit release (%) 2016: 70/30 2020: 65/35 2024: 71/29 Final 2016: 71/29 2020: 67/33 2024: ??
PPUSA (@PollProjectUSA) profile picturePPUSA@PollProjectUSA5 Nov 2024
2024 Reuters/Edison Exit Poll Voting composition by race White 71% Hispanic 12% Black 11% Other 6%
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Kerry prediction market gains after 2004 exit poll release (%) WI: +32 IA: +26 FL: +25 OH: +23 PA: +19 NH: +19 NM: +14 MI: +12 NV: +10 (Tradesports, 3pm to 541pm)
zerohedge (@zerohedge) profile picturezerohedge
@zerohedge5 Nov 2024
With polls in swing states closing shortly, Polymarket has Harris leading in just one, Michigan, tied in Wisconsin, and is lagging Trump in all other swing states including Pennsylvania and Nevada
Image from zerohedge (@zerohedge)
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Are you confident in these exit polls?
9%Yes
91%No
144 votes • Final results
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2024 Polling vs Historical Exit Polling (1960-2020)
Image from Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray)
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Dems: The Economy Reps: The Economy
Conor Sen (@conorsen) profile pictureConor Sen
@conorsen4 Nov 2024
Why both parties believe they’ve going to win: Dems: -Selzer/heartland polling/WA primary->Blue Wall -Dobbs/women -final NYT/Siena polls (mostly) -a belief that they have the late momentum GOP: -early voting data -betting markets -national polls tightening -a belief that there will be another polling error
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Similar trend with 2024 early turnout Rural +6.4% Suburban +1.4% Urban -7.8% (change from 2020)
Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) profile pictureAdrian Gray
@adrian_gray6 Nov 2016
Also, early voting is up in rural areas. Down in urban areas. xitter.cf/adrian_gray/status/795…
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Link: targetearly.targetsmart.com/…
TargetEarly - TargetSmart

TargetEarly - TargetSmart

TargetEarly delivers essential insights into the 2026 midterms, with daily updates on who is voting early, where voting is taking place, and how this year’s activity compares with previous elections.

targetsmart.com
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Average EV outcomes (Trump-Harris) Polling Aggregators: 287-251 Partisan Models: 274-264 Media Models: 272-266 Academic Models: 277-261 Prediction Markets: 287-251
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