📈 I Make Millionaires on @AfterHour_HQ | 🌎 World Class Trader | 🏡 Creative Investor | 🤝 Connector | 🍌 BAYC | 🚗💨 Fast Lane Drive | 📍 Las Vegas & OC
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Joined August 2008
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$WDC EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
✅ EPS $4.64 vs $4.11 expected
✅ Revenue $4.38B vs $4.14B expected, up 55%
✅ Q2 guide: revenue $5.1B, EPS $5.80, gross margin 60% to 61%
✅ Gross margin 58.1% non-GAAP, 57.8% GAAP
⚪ Cloud was 88% of revenue, Client 7%, Consumer 5%, exabytes shipped 248
⚪ Free cash flow $1.38B, dividend raised 17% to $0.175
✅ After-hours +1.6% to $359.99 vs the $354.19 close
CEO Irving Tan: "Fiscal 2027 is off to a strong start, with results exceeding expectations, driven by robust customer demand and disciplined execution."
Hyperscaler demand and pricing are doing the work, and that is the tell $MU and $SNDK needed into their prints. I lean long storage on weakness from here. Kill switch is simple: if $WDC loses $348, today's regular session low, I step aside.
Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.
$BE EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
✅ Revenue $1.236B vs $1.07B expected, up 138% year over year, a quarterly record
✅ Adjusted EPS $0.94 vs $0.68 expected, GAAP EPS $0.78
✅ FY26 revenue guide RAISED to $4.4B to $4.6B, from $3.9B to $4.2B
✅ FY26 adjusted EPS guide raised to $3.10 to $3.40, from $2.55 to $2.85
✅ Adjusted gross margin 34.5%, up 412 bps year over year
⚪ Operating cash flow -$27.1M, the one soft line in the print
✅ Added to the S&P 500
❌ Stock closed -8.7% in the AI washout and is down about 4% after hours anyway
This is the strongest print of earnings season so far, and the tape still will not pay for it. Bloom just proved the AI power bottleneck is real money, raised the year by half a billion dollars, and got sold. When the forced selling ends, this is the first tape I re-read. My kill switch on the complex is unchanged: $SPX close under 7,600 and I step further aside.
Full read in tonight's Evening Recap.
The AI trade just broke, and I have been heavy cash for it since October 9th.
$SOXX -6.3%. $SMH -5.4%. $DRAM -6.9%. $META beat and is down 5% anyway. $LRCX beat and is down 10%. When beats get sold, somebody is not choosing to sell. Somebody is being made to sell.
The receipts: I flagged the rot on Oct 9, breadth never healed (38% of $SPX above its 200-day at Wednesday's close), my kill switch tripped Oct 16 under 7,692, and I stayed cash through the three-day bounce because $SMH never reclaimed 561.
Full special report on Patreon (paid members): the blowup mechanics, and the exact rules that protect an account on days like this.
patreon.com/adioking
$PG EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
✅ Core EPS $2.00 vs $1.88 expected, diluted EPS $1.97, both up 1%
✅ Revenue $23.28B vs $22.80B expected, up 4%
⚪ Guide maintained: FY27 core EPS $6.89 to $7.11, organic sales 1% to 3%, all-in sales updated to 2% to 4% for the Thorne deal
⚪ Organic sales +4.0% on volume +2.4%, mix +1.1%, pricing +0.4%
⚪ Fabric & Home Care organic +5%, Beauty +5%, Grooming +5%, Health Care +3%, Baby, Feminine & Family Care +3%
⚪ Gross margin 49.8%, down 160 bps, operating cash flow $5.8B, $3.9B returned to shareholders
✅ Pre-market +2.97% to $161.51 vs the $156.84 close
CEO Shailesh Jejurikar: "Our solid sales, earnings and cash results in the first quarter reflect sharpened execution of our integrated strategy."
I read this as the defensive print the tape needed. Volume is back, the guide held with a $1.4B commodity headwind sitting on it. I stay constructive on defensives while this holds, and I step aside if $PG gives the pop back and loses $156.84.
Full breakdown in this morning's AdioKing Daily.
AdioKing.eth 👑 retweeted
This is the most serious 48 hours in cybersecurity history.
"Black October" they're calling it
It seems every *hour* there's a new incident, that in a typical year, would be one of the biggest incidents of the *entire year*
SUMMARY OF THE LAST 48 HOURS:
YEAR-LEVEL INCIDENTS (In a typical year, these would be among the biggest incidents of the year):
1. PHP2Shell: a hole in the software behind ~70% of websites. Governments took sites offline.
2. eMudhra: the master keys that prove websites are real were cracked. One was the number 4.
3. California: data on every public school student since 2023 stolen, including disability status
4. Railway: hackers stole customers' secret keys from a hosting platform used by millions of developers
5. Zeabur: 321,810 accounts breached. The company is shutting down.
6. LiteLLM: an AI tool downloaded 3.4 million times a day was poisoned with a password stealer
7. GitLab: a 10-out-of-10 severity hole in every version since 2014
8. Cairn: criminals used an AI hacking tool to break into 100+ companies
9. Ahold Delhaize: hackers knocked the owner of Food Lion and Stop & Shop offline
10. Onamae: malware planted on up to 26,739 customer servers in Japan
MONTH-LEVEL INCIDENTS (In a typical month, these would be among the biggest incidents):
11. Signal: a bug could leave your mic and camera on after you hang up
12. NGINX: 3 critical holes in software running ~1/3 of websites
13. HTTP/3: a single connection can crash 7 of the 10 web server types tested
14. Plex: hackers breaking into home media servers
15. SafePay ransomware: FBI warns it has hit 600+ critical infrastructure organizations
16. Palo Alto: ransomware gangs breaking in through company firewalls
17. Bullhorn: platform used by 10,000+ companies knocked offline
18. Medi-Cal: 970,000 patients' data stolen
19. WordPress: hackers stole a plugin maker's keys and used them to plant backdoors on websites
20. AOMEI: backup software's update server handed out a backdoor
21. Meta Muse: Meta's AI agent exposed users' personal and business secrets
22. Tor: 333 relays hijacked to steal logins
23. TiDB Cloud: database company's cloud breached
Also serious:
24. State Bank of India: India's biggest bank confirms a data breach
25. OVHcloud: hackers slipped a password stealer into a cloud company's official tool
26. Siemens: a software hole being used to spread malware
27. North Korea: state hackers launch a new attack campaign on South Korea
$LRCX EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
EPS: $2.20 non-GAAP vs $2.18 expected. GAAP EPS $2.19
Revenue: $8.22B vs $8.13B expected, up 22% sequentially and 54% year over year. A record
December guide: revenue $8.60B, plus or minus $400M, vs $8.54B expected. EPS guide $2.33, plus or minus $0.15
Gross margin: 52.4% non-GAAP. Operating margin 40.2%
Systems revenue: $5.73B. Customer support revenue: $2.49B
Deferred revenue: $2.66B, up from $2.43B. China was 35% of revenue
After hours: down 6.2%
CEO Tim Archer: "With AI driving higher semiconductor demand and greater device complexity, our focus on operational execution helped Lam deliver record revenue, profit, and earnings per share in the September quarter."
My take: record everything, a guide that only matches the street, and the stock still gets sold 6%. That is how much was priced into this name. I am not catching it tonight. Kill-switch on any dip idea: it has to hold the after-hours low into tomorrow's open and $SMH has to hold 561, or this is distribution, not a gift.
Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.
$TXN EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
EPS: $2.62 vs $2.42 expected, above the top of its own $2.23 to $2.57 guide
Revenue: $6.06B vs $5.93B expected, up 28% year over year and 11% sequentially
Q4 guide: revenue $5.80B to $6.30B, EPS $2.45 to $2.79
Analog revenue: $4.91B, up 32%. Embedded processing: $858M, up 21%
Operating profit: $2.87B, up 73%. Gross margin 64.2%
Free cash flow: $2.96B in the quarter, $8.42B over the last 12 months
After hours: up 1.3%
CEO Haviv Ilan: "Revenue increased 11% sequentially and 28% from the same quarter a year ago with continued broad growth in industrial, automotive and data center."
My take: this is the semi bellwether and it just confirmed the $SMH repair, broad growth across industrial, auto and data center with the cash machine fully back on. Kill-switch: the Q4 guide midpoint steps down sequentially, so if the call blames demand instead of seasonality, the bellwether read flips fast.
Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.
$TSLA EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
EPS: $0.48 non-GAAP vs $0.45 expected. GAAP EPS $0.22
Revenue: $28.05B vs $28.06B expected, flat year over year
Auto gross margin, ex credits: 18.1%, up from 16.3% last quarter. Total gross margin 19.6%
Operating income: $718M for a 2.6% margin. R&D ripped 69% to $2.76B, that spending is eating the P&L
Free cash flow: $1.53B positive vs a $4.51B burn expected. Capex came in at $4.73B vs about $7.77B expected
Energy storage revenue: $2.88B, down 16%. Deployments 13.7 GWh
FSD: 1.74M active subscriptions, up 67%. Over 75% of North America deliveries took FSD this quarter
Guide: no numeric guide, same as always. The deck says the focus is maximum factory utilization
After hours: up 1.2%
On Optimus, the deck calls the Fremont bots "the first production-quality bots that we have manufactured."
My take: I spent the week in cash on this one because margins were the whole ballgame. They stabilized, and my preview kill-switch said margin above 16.3% with a clean guide earns a look long after the print. It printed 18.1% and the cash burn never showed up. Small look long tomorrow. Kill-switch: the call turns into a spending spree with no robotaxi scale behind it, and I am right back in cash.
Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.
$META EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
EPS: $3.83 reported vs $6.54 expected. That print carries a $9.89B legal charge. Strip the charge out and EPS is $7.40, a clean beat
Revenue: $64.60B vs $63.34B expected, up 26%
Q4 guide: revenue $73B to $76B
2026 capex: $135B to $145B, lifted from $130B to $145B
Advertising revenue: $63.06B, up 26%. Ad impressions up 10%, price per ad up 14%
Reality Labs: $443M revenue, $4.13B loss
Free cash flow: negative $2.12B, with $34.91B of capex in the quarter alone
Board also approved a new Class C stock, with a 1 for 1 Class C stock dividend coming in January
After hours: up 3.2%
Zuckerberg: "Our investments are paying off, the core business is strong, and we're seeing velocity across the board."
My take: the whale tape called this one cold, $22.65M of January 2028 710 calls bought the day before the print. Ads are funding the AI build in real time. Kill-switch: the call walks back the 2027 growth talk, or capex creeps higher with no ad payoff attached, and this read is dead.
Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.
$SPCX EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
EPS: $0.35 GAAP vs $0.16 expected. First profit as a public company
Revenue: $14.6B vs $12.89B expected, up 161% year over year
Guide: no numeric guide in the release. The outlook lands on the webcast
Net income: $4.4B vs $1.6B expected, a swing from a $1.1B loss a year ago
SI revenue: $7.6B vs $6.5B projected, now 51% of total revenue
Connectivity: $5.2B vs $4.8B projected. Starlink subscribers 13.6M, up from 12.0M last quarter
Adjusted EBITDA: $8.8B vs $6.7B expected. Capex was $19.6B
After hours: up 2.1%
My take: the AI arm just became half the company and the whole thing flipped profitable in the same quarter. That is insane. The whales bought $3.73M of $SPCX 155 calls expiring tomorrow, and this print keeps them alive. Kill switch: it fades back under $148 and the $19.6B capex bill becomes the story again.
Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.
$NFLX EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
EPS: $0.87 vs $0.82 expected
Revenue: $12.87B vs $12.87B expected, up 11.8% year over year
Guide: Q4 revenue $13.44B vs $13.52B expected, Q4 EPS $0.67 vs $0.73 expected. Guide down
Operating margin: 34.6%, up from 28.2% a year ago
Free cash flow: $2.9B in Q3. Full year FCF guide cut to about $12B from about $12.5B
Ads: 2026 ad revenue forecast cut to about $2.7B from about $3B
After hours: down nearly 7% to $63.99
From the shareholder letter: "spark conversation, bring in more members and make us a 'must-have' service"
My take: the beat was the easy part, the guide is the print and it printed soft. I am in cash on this one. It reclaims $68.69 or I keep watching.
Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.
$VICR EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
EPS: $1.33 vs $1.39 expected
Revenue: $197.1M vs $187.2M expected, up 78.5% year over year
Guide: no formal Q4 numbers in the release, the forward tell is backlog
Royalty revenue: $66.6M
Product revenue: $130.5M
Gross margin: 68.3%, up from 58.0% last quarter
Backlog: $406M, up 166% year over year
Cash: $513.1M, operating cash flow $69.7M
Pre-market: up 7.5%
CEO Dr. Patrizio Vinciarelli: "Capacity expansion is necessary in view of demand and industry trends."
My take: royalties repeated and they printed huge. That kills the one-off fear I carried into this print. I was flat, I stay patient on the open, and the kill-switch is clean: lose 200 on volume after this rip and the spike was a gift to sellers, I am back in cash.
Full breakdown in this morning's AdioKing Daily.
$CCK EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
EPS: $2.39 vs $2.26 expected
Revenue: $3.71B vs $3.46B expected
Q4 guide: $1.63 to $1.73 vs $1.80 expected
Full year guide: $8.35 to $8.45, narrowed from $8.30 to $8.50, adjusted free cash flow at least $950M
Global beverage can volumes: up 6%, Asia double digits, North America up 6%, Europe up 4%
Segment income: $484M vs $490M last year, volume gain offset by input cost inflation
After hours: down 5.8% to $108.25
CEO Timothy Donahue: "Robust global beverage can volumes helped offset the majority of rising input cost pressures."
My take: the quarter printed clean, the soft Q4 guide is the selloff, and I stay in cash on this one unless tomorrow's call walks that guide back.
Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.
What a great take. Young Americans are being inadvertently taught that it’s safe to tackle big scary ideas again.
I’ve spent a few days thinking about the Tesla Roadster reveal and landed somewhere I haven’t seen much discussion. I’m neither a Tesla fanboy nor a Tesla hater. And I couldn’t care less whether what we saw technically qualifies as a flying car. Three takeaways: (1) The risk of that live demonstration going horribly wrong was real. Almost no CEO would willingly expose their company to that kind of public humiliation for a product with so little financial upside. Elon did. (2) That willingness to attempt the seemingly impossible is what makes Tesla special. It’s also arguably Elon’s greatest contribution to America. He’s helped bring back something we’ve lost. The American spirit of chasing big scary ideas that most people think are impossible. That mindset is spreading across a new generation of founders and its long term impact on America’s future could dwarf anything Tesla ever sells. I think this is deeply underappreciated. (3) Can we just acknowledge how insanely cool that moment was? We’ve reached a strange place culturally where even extraordinary feats of human ingenuity immediately become arguments about why they don’t count. Not everything needs to be a debate. Sometimes we should just be able to stand back together and marvel at what humans are capable of. I’ve been both bullish and critical of Tesla’s ambitions over the years. But watching Elon and his team push the boundaries of what’s possible reminds me why I’m glad we have him. Whether the Roadster ever makes Tesla a dollar or impacts $TSLA stock price is almost beside the point. We need more people willing to risk failure in pursuit of things the rest of us think are impossible. Because when they succeed we all win.
7640 DECIDES THE WEEK
I'm in cash going into the biggest earnings week of the quarter, and Sunday futures just reopened GREEN. Small green, and it changes nothing about my position yet.
Sunday prints ~3:15pm PT / 6:15pm ET (Investing.com): ES 7,718.50 +0.18%, NQ 29,505 +0.39%, Dow futures 52,304 +0.17%, RTY 2,745.80 +0.38%. WTI futures $98.28 -0.75% (cooler, helpful). Gold $4,195.75 +0.22%. Bitcoin $81,542 +0.25%.
Friday: $SPX 7,659.44 (-1.09%), Nasdaq -2.15%, $QQQ 709.80 (-2.47%). My kill switch was a close under 7,692. It tripped. Cash was the trade.
ES at 7,718 sits right at the top of the old 7,692-7,716 zone. Monday's first test: does that zone hold as support or reject as resistance? Cash support cluster underneath is 7,635-7,600, my 7,640 inside it. Lose 7,600 and it's 7,500-7,450, then 7,300. Weekly 1SD band 7,445-7,874 on VIX 20.16. QQQ support 700-710, then 692. Reclaim 715 / 727 = first stabilization.
Breadth: only 52% of the S&P above its 200-day. $SMH -10.5% on the week, nine straight down days in semis. Money ran to defensives: $XLE +4.9%, $XLV +3.45%.
Weekend: Hormuz tanker mine strikes continued, Brent settled $109.86 Friday. Ukraine hit the St. Petersburg oil terminal. $MSFT pulled out of the Nscale UK data center deal (power not until the 2030s, per the Telegraph). Fresh crack in the AI financing story, even with futures green tonight.
The week: Fed in blackout, data light. $NFLX Tuesday AMC. $META + $TSLA Wednesday AMC, Meta capex guidance is the AI verdict. $AXP Friday BMO.
Thursday's whales flipped bullish, $75.21M vs $13.32M bearish, $19.60M in $CRWV Apr 2027 90 calls. Friday trapped it, $CRWV -11.9%. I'm not copying unhedged size into a break.
Bull: 7,600 holds, Meta guides capex up, SPX reclaims 7,692 / 7,775.
Base: chop 7,600-7,775 into Wednesday.
Bear: 7,600 breaks, oil spikes, Meta/Tesla guide down, 7,445 next.
Confusion means cash. Monday 8am PT Daily: did this green open hold?
FUTURES ARE OPEN
S&P 500 UP 0.4% 📈
NASDAQ 100 UP 0.8% 📈
DOW JONES UP 0.4% 📈
RUSSELL 2000 UP 0.7% 📈
GOLD UP 0.6% 📈
OIL DOWN 1.0% 📉
BITCOIN UP 0.8% 📈
All that Black Monday talk all weekend. Green across the board.
I'm still in cash. $SPX reclaims 7,692 or I keep watching.
If you buy $INTC now, you’re getting in better than Nancy Pelosi. 🧠
This might be worth keeping an eye on…
Back in June, Pelosi disclosed investing ~$1.5m into $INTC calls when the stock was trading at ~$110.
Then, the stock dipped and she bought more calls and 10,000 shares when the stock was trading at ~$92.
A few weeks later the stock soared to $120.
This week, the stock erased all its September gains and fell back to a price lower than Pelosi’s entry.
Pelosi is down ~27% on her ~$2m Intel position.
RIGHT CALL. WRONG CLOCK.
Wednesday I bought $QQQ $722 puts for $2,415 on a one-day expiry. Yesterday they died and I salvaged $210. Today $QQQ trades $709, down 2.6%, the $SPX is off 1.2%, and those puts would be $13 in the money.
Why the one-day ticket? A one-year-old son, an eviction closing at one property, new tenants going in at two others, and a month of drives between Vegas and Newport Beach. The trader I used to be sat at the screens twelve hours a day and could run a short clock. This season of my life cannot.
The lesson cost me $2,205 and it is worth more than that: direction is half a trade, time is the other half. If your read needs three days, buy five.
Red days grade your calendar and your size, not your worth. The market is here Monday. So am I. Full damage report in tonight's Evening Recap.
Full breakdown in the post below (free of course!)
patreon.com/posts/172565019
