@stratstability & @elvateam | @Fletcherschool grad | prev @Statedept | Thoughts on politics are my own, tweets on Africa & terrorism are informed

Washington, DC
Joined March 2009
Since 2022 @ElvaTeam we've been doing quite a bit of research on the impacts of various issues that impact farmer and herding communities, to include: climate change, border fortification, latent communal tensions and emergent armed group violence. Here's a compiled thread:
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Aneliese Bernard retweeted
What if the most important lesson from 25 years of #counterterrorism work is that military force alone isn't enough? @abernard, counterterrorism expert and founder of our partner @StratStability, wrote for Spirit of America about the rapidly evolving terrorist threat in West Africa, and why creating pipelines between military forces and civilians may be the key to long-term security.
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Curious about the evolving nature of armed group activity in West Africa? Check out our latest series - from criminal banditry in #Nigeria to jihadism and separatist movements in #Mali and the broader #Sahel.
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We’ve started a new blog series on Nigeria, looking at the drivers of conflict, the risk of regional spillover, and what growing U.S. security interest in the country could mean for policy in Africa based on the limited information we can gather in Washington🧵
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Aneliese Bernard retweeted
All we know so far is that the missiles - at approximately $1.3 million a pop - fell on farmland. USAID programs that addressed conflict and violent extremism typically received far less money to do significantly more long term work in rooting terrorism and its causes.
But we haven't seen the evidence so far
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All we know so far is that the missiles - at approximately $1.3 million a pop - fell on farmland. USAID programs that addressed conflict and violent extremism typically received far less money to do significantly more long term work in rooting terrorism and its causes.
But we haven't seen the evidence so far
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We've launched a blog! Read about how West Africa’s borderlands are dynamic spaces where trade, stability, and risk converge. Our inaugural blogpost explains why investors in frontier markets must pay attention to borderland trade, security and politics: stabilizationadvisors.com/bl…
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We're kicking off something new @StratStability. Check out our blog for insights from the field and highlights on the SSA families' research, thoughts and experiences working in fragile spaces and frontier markets. stabilizationadvisors.com/bl…
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Proud to see our work in Benin featured in @Africa_In_EN Through civil-military committees under Benin's Operation Mirador, SSA is helping the army build trust with communities, curb jihadist recruitment, & safeguard border stability with @USSOCAF and @SpiritAmerica
BENIN | To block the influence of jihadist groups, the Beninese armed forces have set up local consultation structures in the north of the country. This initiative is supported by a handful of American partners. ➡️ l.africaintelligence.fr/nh
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Our research on borderlands finally dropped. Check it out in the link
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Women’s inclusion in the armed forces is not about gender and diversity. It’s about ensuring militaries are modernized, operationally ready to deal with insurgencies, and adaptive. Dismissing #WPS importance is really ignorant to how #women play critical roles in natsec
How do female soldiers shape trust, legitimacy, and security coordination in northern Benin? SSA x SOCAF’s new study explores gender dynamics in the armed forces — where it matters most. DM us to discuss. #WPS #SSA #SOCAF #Benin #SecuritySectorReform
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I spoke with the @guardian in this piece. One line that stands out to me, as understated and incredibly true: 'The recent success of JNIM may be less a result of its own strength than the weaknesses of its opponents." theguardian.com/world/2025/j…
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There's a trending topic in certain discourses right now that the regimes in the Sahel are capably repelling jihadist threats, in the absence of Western security assistance...
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...While the US and France were hugely unsuccessful in Sahel counterterrorism, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are significantly less secure, frankly I'd say they are failed states, under the AES framework.
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As our Director, @abernard explains, JNIM continues to expand undeterred from the northern Sahel, where the group first emerged in the mid-2000s, now into more stable states in Coastal West Africa...
After years spent quietly gaining strength, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin is now the most well-armed militant force in West Africa. No one knows when its fighters will strike next — or where they plan to stop. wapo.st/43D8uV2
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Aneliese Bernard retweeted
.@abernard said the group has metastasized to such an extent that it now “directly impacts [U.S.] national security.” And, she added, “they are expanding undeterred into the countries we have long considered robust security partners.”
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#womenpeacesecurity - or #WPS - is not about diversity hires. It’s about addressing the fact that women are critical to security, because women can also be contributors to insecurity. Cutting this program is simply ignorant, and a huge setback to better military readiness.
WPS program helped to bring women to the negotiating tables to end violent conflicts around the world… Why? Because actual data shows that when women are included, more sustainable peace is more likely. The cost to DOD was about $5 mil a year (BTW that's 1/14th of the cost of the F-18 now with the fish the Red Sea).
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Who’s going to tell them that building trade relations in Africa often requires the baseline of development… which USAID is the foundation for?
While in my official position I can only endorse official U.S policies, my friend Josh Meservey’s op-ed in Foreign Policy on what America’s Africa Policy towards Africa should prioritize is well worth reading. foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/11…
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Replying to @abernard @ElvaTeam
2) 2023 study on Transhumance violence and socio-economics and politics in Atakora, Benin that led to informed USAID programming: elva.org/wp-content/uploads/… xitter.cf/abernard/status/162295…
Excited to share Elva's latest research on insecurity and violent extremism in #Benin's Atakora department, supported by @USAIDOTI & @USAIDWestAfrica. The full report is available for download on our website, elva.org/news/atakora-analyt…. Now for a 🧵 on key findings: 1/
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3) A social network analysis of ethnic-Fulbe groups, with an emphasis on transhumant Fulbe, in Ghana, conducted by the Dr. Kaderi Bukari at the University of Cape Coast, with support from Elva. elva.org/wp-content/uploads/…
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