Writing about Prediction Markets | Building @flowframe_ | @predictionlabs
Joined July 2024
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Tyler retweeted
The new Prediction Pro Midterms Model is live on the Discord!
Election models tell you who's winning, but they don't tell you what's tradable.
So we built one that does: independent projections for all 470 House and Senate races this November, each one set against the market's current price, then screened for depth, spread, and fees —because an edge you can't fill isn't an edge.
The Midterms Model. Updated through November. Join the Prediction Labs Discord to get access. Link below ↓
Tyler retweeted
The market prices Ohio's two big races the same. Nate Silver's model says it's wrong by 11 points.
Here's the trade:
Tyler retweeted
Prediction markets aren't wrong about Hormuz transits,
they just are not confident enough.
73¢ for NO before January is cheap.
Trade the contract, not the conflict.
Tyler retweeted
🗳️ PRIMARY NIGHT SLATE
🍊 FL Gov — Donalds 98¢
🟤 WY Gov — Republicans 96¢
❄️ AK Senate — Peltola 91¢
👇 Trade the action tonight on Kalshi
bit.ly/3UmNQ9b
🗣️ "The only one of these three with a live market is Florida, and it's not the nominee. Donalds is done at 98¢. The tradeable question is Fishback's vote share: <10% at 48¢, 10–15% at 37¢. It's a good read on whether a Trump endorsement still consolidates a field, single digits says it cleared the lane, 15%+ says a fifth of Florida Republicans went looking anyway. "
hey @blknoiz06 how about an airdrop for those of us grinding in the LP trenches and providing liquidity for solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump
The sleeper in Multicoin's HYPE report is HIP-4.
Prediction markets + options, built straight into Hyperliquid. But the unlock is cross-margining.
Right now traders are fragmented: BTC on a perps DEX, equities on E*TRADE, Schwab, Robinhood, event risk on Polymarket. Every position siloed, every dollar of collateral stuck on a different platform.
HIP-4 changes that. Hold a BTC perp and hedge an FOMC outcome in the same account, one risk engine.
Polymarket can't do this, at least not yet.
TAM: prediction markets ~$21B/mo, crypto options $180B+/mo. Coinbase paid $2.9B for Deribit.
Multicoin left it out of their base case entirely and left it as pure upside optionality.
If it lands, Hyperliquid starts eating the whole macro stack
1/ Today, @multicoin publishes our HYPE analysis and valuation
HYPE is now one of our largest liquid fund positions and we've been accumulating aggressively since February
Full report and disclosures in link. Link here -
multicoin.capital/2026/06/25…
“For the ads business, that is a different and richer class of signal than anything in the current stack.
Advertisers don't really pay for engagement; they pay for intent, and intent is fundamentally a belief about the future, that you'll need a flight, that the truck is worth buying, that the election outcome changes what you'll spend on.
A platform that can see which users genuinely expect a recession, or a team to win, or a product category to take off, is sitting on forward-looking intent data rather than the backward-looking behavioral kind everyone else is forced to infer from clicks. Knowing who is reliably well-calibrated is itself a targeting and trust primitive Meta doesn't have today”
The CFTC is proposing a rulebook for prediction markets.
Basically, sports contracts stay. War, terror, and assassination markets might get cut.
This doesn't seem like a crackdown, overall a win if polymarket and kalshi are regulated by one federal charter instead of 50 states fighting them
I'm pleased to announce that today, the @CFTC is officially seeking public comment on a structured framework for evaluating the types of events that may underpin contracts traded on prediction markets.
This proposal would give the CFTC durable, transparent rules of the road to identify the contracts Congress directed it to scrutinize while letting legitimate markets move forward pursuant to the public interest.
>Why I’m buying Evette YES at ~78% on Kalshi right now for SC GOP governor nominee. Polls open today. 6 candidates splitting the vote unlikely anyone hits 50% so runoff June 23 is almost certain. 78% right now seems like a good price.
>Evette has the only two endorsements that matter: Trump + Gov. McMaster.
>The rest of the field is split four ways. Polls show Evette ~20%, Wilson ~18%, Reddy ~15%, Norman ~14%, Mace ~12%. Everyone else is cannibalizing each other.
>Runoff math favors her big time. Turnout drops, only the most loyal Trump voters show up. They follow his pick. Plus, 2018 McMaster did the exact same thing and won easily.
>Iowa upset last week might be lingering in traders minds. But I put this closer to 83-86% she wins in runoff, with a small chance she wins outright tonight.
Just paste a @kalshi url for a mention market and get a full word matrix for recent events! @flowframe_
Tyler retweeted
Prediction markets move in seconds.
Most communities find out minutes later.
Introducing Flowframe Edge. on-demand commands. Push alerts. Whale tracking. Smart-money positioning. Polymarket and Kalshi, all running natively inside your Discord.
Branded for your community. Quiet by design.
One server. Every edge.
Add Edge → flowframe.xyz/edge
Tyler retweeted
WEEKLY LEADERBOARD IS OUT.
Pestle leads with +$1,682,787 PNL at 57% on Polymarket. Influenz close behind at +$783,443 with the best win rate on the board at 74%. Tdrhrhhd rounds out the podium at +$775,893 , on just a 22% win rate, which says a lot about position sizing.
Real numbers, real traders, real markets.
🔗 Full leaderboard at flowframe.xyz
Didn’t @blknoiz06 say a while back make sure to get 1000 $hype by end of q1? 🐐