Let me go ahead and warn you. If you’re emotionally invested in the TX Senate race, you are in for at least a few solid days of gaslighting, doom, and negativity. Closely manage your mutes and blocks and pay attention to where the votes are coming from. The attached is a map I’ve made describing the county dispositions of Texas. They are indisputable. There are Essentially five county types in the modern state. Original MAGAverse (Crimson) - based on where even the great O’Rourke was unable to penetrate in 2018, and on a long string of real results, these counties pile up massive margins. Every batch of votes here is good for the GOP ticket, and the idea is to run up turnout. The last time Texans were afraid of a Democrat win (2018), many of these counties produced 85-90% of their 2016 presidential vote count. Regular Red (Pink) - these counties are going to be Republican wins, but they will likely give back some presidential margin. Montgomery and Brazoria are the largest in this group. High turnout here is still good for Paxton. Big Blue Four (Blue) - Democrats have to max out these counties and get huge margins. Harris (Houston), Dallas, Bexar (San Antonio), and Travis (Austin). The media will focus on “record breaking” turnout in these. Dallas will probably give Talarico trouble mobilizing the black vote, as well as Houston. San Antonio and Harris will probably show improvement from 2016-18 for Paxton with working-class Latinos. Every batch of votes from Travis is only good for Talarico. Slipperies (Purple) - These counties had big movement for O’Rourke in 2018. I think Paxton will win two of them, so the mission here is margin control. Talarico needs to move these a lot and will want to flip Collin. New Trumpian Empire (Yellow) - South and West Texas. More than 300,000 total presidential margin moved in these from 2016 to 2024. Talarico will lose a lot of O’Rourke’s raw margin in El Paso County. The increase of GOP support with Hispanic voters was not something the O’Rourke campaign had to worry about in 2018 and is being discounted this year. In a nutshell- In order to win, this is what Talarico needs: *Poor turnout in the crimson *Party turncoats in the pinks *Massive surge to polls in the blues *Betomania in the purples *Massive reversion of the Latino vote in the yellows, back to 2016 presidential level And THAT would be enough for a TILT margin. If the crimson votes in big numbers, the yellow will offset the purples and blues.