Alignment recruiter @AnthropicAI. Views are my own. Prev @manifoldmarkets. Twitch partner, rank 1 in Hearthstone, HSBGs, and SBB. Top 10 challenger TFT.
Joined April 2018
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SirSalty retweeted
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
SirSalty retweeted
We invited Claude users to share how they use AI, what they dream it could make possible, and what they fear it might do.
Nearly 81,000 people responded in one week—the largest qualitative study of its kind.
Read more: anthropic.com/features/81k-i…
SirSalty retweeted
I’m building a small, focused crew to work alongside me and the technical teams on this adventure. I’m looking to work with exceptional, entrepreneurial, heterodox thinkers. Apply here, and if you're unsure feel free to DM me as to why you're a good fit.
job-boards.greenhouse.io/ant…
SirSalty retweeted
A statement from Anthropic CEO, Dario Amodei, on our discussions with the Department of War.
anthropic.com/news/statement…
SirSalty retweeted
Anthropic is hiring someone to work with Holden Karnofsky on his projects there - in particular re Anthropic's 'Responsible Scaling Policy'.
Likely v high impact for the right person.
(My 4.5 hour (!) interview with Holden is below to learn more about him and his views.)
I interviewed Holden Karnofsky of Anthropic (and past CEO of Open Philanthropy) for 4.5 hours on almost all his AGI takes:
• The AI 'race' isn't a coordination failure [00:18:01]
• Why he's currently focused on pursuing easy wins and partial victories [02:43:43]
• "It'll be the second advanced species ever" [02:31:44]
• Dozens of 'concrete shovel-ready projects' he's excited about [01:17:58]
• People don't appreciate all the engaging, impactful, high-feedback work available tackling AGI risks [01:19:00]
• Having a more responsible AI company really does matter [02:43:43]
• You shouldn't count on trusting anyone in AI [00:44:30]
• To take over an AGI might just wait it out [00:07:39]
• Farm animal welfare campaigns that targeted companies contain some useful lessons here [02:34:18]
• Human-AI relationships really are troubling [03:53:58]
• It's totally plausible we incompetently fumble our way into a great future [03:04:16)]
• AI R&D is *the* thing to worry about [01:57:31]
• And many others.
Holden has opinions on almost everything and isn't afraid to speak his mind. Enjoy!
(On the 80,000 Hours Podcast anywhere you get podcasts. Links below.)
SirSalty retweeted
We beat Claude Code in our evals: 61% to 53%. Yes, evals are actually important haha
And now we’re open-sourcing our entire codebase and launching an agent framework!
Now you can build custom agents for your project and get better results 🔥
SirSalty retweeted
Metagame 2025 is coming up this Sept 12-14! It's a weekend conference devoted to games, in the broadest sense of the word: any experience that is designed to be played, as opposed to passively consumed. Board games, card games, video games, tabletop games, LARPs, puzzle hunts, escape rooms, and so much more.
SirSalty retweeted
Join the Inkhaven Residency!
For the 30 days of November, join 30 writers at Lighthaven writing 30 blogposts. 1 per day! If you fail to publish, you leave.
With advice & mentorship from some of the internet's best writers: Scott Alexander, Scott Aaronson, Gwern & more TBA 🧵
SirSalty retweeted
"Even if you are skeptical of how good prediction markets are at generating odds for things that have relatively little information, they are still the fastest aggregators of new information that's coming in."
— @Hs_SirSalty
starspangledgamblers.libsyn.…
SirSalty retweeted
So much of life is luck: meeting the right person at the right time, finding the right opportunity for your talents. Fortunately, you can develop an unfair advantage if you learn to increase your surface area for luck.
More below.
SirSalty retweeted
Brand new paper on Arxiv with @Li_Haiwen_ @actuallysoham Manon Revel @andreas_h0wpt @__bradmiller__ @kcoleman @msaveski: Scaling Human Judgment in Community Notes with LLMs
Very bullish on the LLM-assisted future of Community Notes 📈
SirSalty retweeted
The @Kalshi team had an incredible time at @ManifoldMarkets Manifest a few weeks ago. We cannot wait to come back and spend time with our fellow forecasters!
SirSalty retweeted
SCOOP: Polymarket, the world's biggest prediction market, is nearing a deal to raise more than $200 million in a funding round at over $1 billion valuation.
My story for @theinformation:
theinformation.com/articles/… #polymarket
SirSalty retweeted
It's exactly 4 weeks until Manifest 2025!
Here's a sneak peek of some of the people coming!
@NateSilver538 @ MichaelLewis @slatestarcodex @chrisbest @robinhanson @Noahpinion @eshear @ByrneHobart @Aella_Girl @patio11 @jkcarlsmith @allisondman @StephenGrugett @tszzl @davidshor @LauraDeming @micsolana @kevinroose
SirSalty retweeted
Would you flip a coin where 50% chance you die, 50% chance you have the best possible life for as long as you possibly lived, with as many resources as you want?
35%Flip coin
52%Don't flip coin
13%See Results
3,860 votes • Final results SirSalty retweeted
As someone who has been #1 global at a bunch of popular strategic games, I think about this a lot.
I hypothesise that the correlation between being good at board games and life is similar to being good at exams and life.
Both reveal a high capacity for something that is correlated to being successful. But, neither reveals any indication of an individual's ability to overcome their weaknesses or internal friction preventing them from taking advantage of their best traits.
I'm of the opinion that being successful in life mostly consists of two things:
1) Overcoming self-imposed boundaries/fears.
2) Being able to focus on putting one foot in front of the other and making consistent progress.
With games and studying, you don't need to think about that. The feet automatically move for you. All you have to do is be smarter and beat everyone else.
From knowing lots of pro-gamers I also suspect that our brains are susceptible to overthinking which creates higher internal friction from being able to just get stuff done. This creates an over-reliance on external motivation which can be hard to overcome.
