I spoke to / heard from a few senior AI labs people this weekend and I now feel even more confident in these predictions from a month ago. Hearing these same ideas come out of their mouths was quite strange in how real it became. There is a sequence of future events that if you think about from first principles seems inevitable. We really do now have a test-time compute paradigm that is a straight shot to AGI (no matter how you define AGI). The bottleneck is gathering good data for RL and then all the little product details like improving speed, integrations into our workflows, etc. Just assume that by end of 2025, at minimum, we'll have multimodal agentic phd AIs doing complex tasks for you on your computer at o1-mini speeds. I highly recommend people update their worldviews and company plans to assume this. This is not hype. The world will still feel similar bc it will take long for Bank of America and the government of France and everyone to integrate AGI and there will be a compute shortage. But the AGI will exist nonetheless. Robotics will also take a bit longer and timelines are a bit less clear there but I also talked to people who are doing robotics, and seems we're only talking a couple years later for fully functional humanoid robots. I believe there is a major gap in our information ecosystem about these topics. There are a couple thousand researchers and engineers thrusting us into the next era of humanity at breakneck speed, but they're not allowed to talk about it bc of NDAs. This is the most important story of the century -- far more important than covid -- yet there is far less media and discussion about it, beside hype tweets from AI influencers and coy tweets from AI researchers. That's because there are very few people who: a) understand how these systems work b) are able to suppress the "this sounds too crazy" part of their brain c) are able to suppress the "go full hype" part of their brain d) are in SF so hear things on the ground beyond twitter/the news e) actually care about helping the world and are not just trying to sell you something f) recognize the gravity of the situation and treat it as such g) are reasonably competent at converting thoughts into words I believe I am one of these people. As a person who's been running an AI company that trains real models, but one that is not an AI lab (so I can say whatever I want), and someone who enjoys writing about things that are helpful, I believe I can bring an important perspective to this quiet but immensely important conversation. I feel a duty to write more on X, and plan to do so. You have my word that I will always strive to be as correct as possible and will not write things with hype, though I won't be scared of being provocative. I also highly encourage anyone else out there who passes the criteria above to write more, create more. The world is desperately in need of media about the world that is coming. We need realistic AI short stories, new films beyond Terminator, mocked video demos of what future systems will look like. We all need visceral examples to shake us out of apathy so that we don't just predict the AGI but feel it. That way we can prepare accordingly.