2 Analysts in Public/Private Markets… Not Financial Advice
New York, USA
Joined August 2026
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Inflation is up and treasuries are up and ai infrastructure stocks are down. great recipe for some red in the market $QQQ
With banks ($JPM $C $GS $WFC) kicking off Q3 Earnings, we’ve see a theme of weak fixed income trading, extraordinary equity trading numbers and investment banking/advisory revenue was strong
Financials/Banks relative performance might be a good leading indicator of potential short-term weakness ($KBWB -1.4% vs $SPY unchanged)
Tomorrow we have $BAC (already out with a 1.2B money laundering charge) and $MS and regionals thereafter so let’s see how this plays out
LOTS HAPPENED IN THE MARKETS THIS WEEK. Let’s Recap The Week:
$SPY ⬆️1.2% supported by lower yields (5.242% ⬇️3bps) and the rate volatility calmed down (MOVE Index ⬇️8%)
$MAGS ⬆️1.6% and cybersecurity ($CIBR ⬆️4.8%) holding up the $QQQ while we saw a notable derating in the AI infrastructure space.
While the VIX is ⬇️3% closing $14.84, we continue to see dispersion under the hood with 212/500 underwater YTD and the 5 largest companies $NVDA/ $AAPL / $GOOGL / $MSFT / $AMZN have as much weight as the bottom 434 companies (highest concentration in history)
According to Grok: all of the execs from the following companies were at this “superintelligence dinner”
$NVDA — Jensen Huang, NVIDIA
$META — Mark Zuckerberg, Meta
$TSLA — Elon Musk, Tesla/SPCX
$GOOGL — Sundar Pichai, Alphabet
$MSFT — Satya Nadella, Microsoft
$AMZN — Jeff Bezos, Amazon
$AMD — Lisa Su, AMD
$PLTR — Alex Karp / Shyam Sankar, Palantir
$AVGO — Hock Tan, Broadcom
$MU — Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron
$NOW — Bill McDermott, ServiceNow
$PANW — Nikesh Arora, Palo Alto Networks
Just own them all?
Bandaid for a long-term issue. Ray Dalio has been calling for the debasement trade for years for a reason. Issue is no one knows what the final catalyst will be.
Short $TLT
So with the 10y at 5.25 and the 30y at 5.56, I’d become cautious for a reversal. $QQQ is somehow still only 1.5% off the highs (perhaps because the MOVE index hasn’t seen as dramatic of a pike in bond volatility).
Something’s gotta give here
I acc started adding duration in my taxable accounts with shorter time horizons cause I think this aggressive monetary policy repricing will pull back (especially on the Canada side). I also added some $SQQQ as a tradeable expression of this higher yield, unchanged stocks dynamic.
What’s keeping this market with yields up at 5.1%. Is it just muse and LLM models. $META
💡 The rally in oil + precious metals has brought the Canadian index (S&P/TSX Composite) to +13.23% YTD.
It is now outperforming
Dow Jones +8.98%
S&P500 +11.55%
NASDAQ +12.96%
With USD/CAD at 1.38, an uneven trade war, and core inflation sitting at the Bank of Canada’s targets, I’m not too sure about the markets hawkish pricing (1 hike by year end)
Think the trade in Canada is short CAD, long CAD rates, or play the US market outperformance & CAD weakness via an unhedged index ($VFV.TO, $XUS.TO)
Oil topped $100, Yields Rose, September Cyclicality Beginning in Stocks
> 10-, 20- and 30-year rates all touched session highs off the headlines of the $6B buyback announcement (guess the market was disappointed)
> Though the buyback tomorrow is just background noise and it's really oil driving yields
> Focus will be on how much of the 6B par amount will be repurchased
Recently switched to a Real Estate PE group and this is what I have learned in my first week. Condo market has absolutely collapsed, many funds got greedy in 2020, 2021 and started understating properties at an unreasonable cap rate, considering market valuations.
This then translated into buyers locking up condos at an extreme prices, which then they were promised would be built into 2-3 years, however that never happened. Market collapsed and developers paused their construction because they couldn’t meet the % sold units to borrow their construction loan.
S&P500 Index Rebalance Announcement After Market Close - Sep 4
What are the requirements for the next inclusion?
- US domiciled
- 22.7B market cap
- GAAAP net income positive for the latest quarter and cumulatively over the latest 4 quarters
- 250k shares traded in each of the last 6 months
- Generally > 12 months post IPO/SPAC
Top Candidates for Today’s Index Inclusion:
$BE - ~$60B, profitable and well above the size hurdle; one of the clearest large-cap eligible Industrials candidates
$LNG - ~$60B, highly profitable and seasoned; also gives S&P an opportunity to increase Energy representation
$ALAB - Large, profitable semiconductor/AI-infrastructure name
$EVP - ~$60B-scale eligible company
$CRDO - Large, profitable AI/networking semiconductor name
$RPRX - Large, profitable healthcare name
$HEI - Large, consistently profitable aerospace compounder, seasoned, and liquid
$RKT - Now appears to clear profitability/size requirements and has been discussed by index analysts as a candidate
$AFRM - Now GAAP profitable and ~$25B market cap, just above the $22.7B threshold; fintech exposure but much less size cushion
$SOFI - Sustained GAAP profitability and appears to meet the core eligibility criteria
$TWLO - Large profitable software name