ShynZ (@_ShynZ) profile picture
Joined July 2010
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$RKT analysis πŸ“ Request Very bullish on this one but for now it’s a wait until next FOMC, a rate hike could crush it, a hold will be neutral, next earnings is the 2nd big event for them. What they do πŸ‘‡ Rocket is is one of the bigger US fintech names in housing : Rocket Mortgage, Redfin, title/closing, servicing, home equity, and Rocket Loans. Why I am bullish on $RKT and could be the catalyst for the next leg up πŸš€πŸ‘‡ β€’ Record 6.2% of total loans loans purchased and refinances purchase 14.3% ===> They are #1 β€’ More than 70% of revenue is now recurring or less rate-sensitive β€’ Redfin mortgage leads doubled YoY β€’ Mr. Cooper + Redfin acquisitions πŸš€πŸš€ β€’ #1 U.S. home-equity lander ==>Rocket Loans volume nearly doubled in 1H26 β€’ Most profitable quarter in four years even with a weak spring housing market. CATALYSTS possibility: - A hold in September plus a soft CPI would flip the narrative fast - They have adjusted Q3 down, a beat against a weak market could activate the next impulse. News πŸ‘‡ Today’s Jobs report is a problem for $RKT. August payrolls: +162k vs ~56k expected. Unemployment stuck at 4.1%. That’s a hot labor print. Yields popped. Mortgage rates were already near 7%. This keeps them there. Fed funds futures now anticipate a 60% odds of a September hike. For Rocket that means: β€’ fewer purchases β€’ fewer refis β€’ tighter affordability β€’ Q3 guide already called for a smaller market due to weak house market. Blackrock added 2M shares from Q1 to Q2 2026 Revenue growth πŸ‘‡ β€’ 2023: ~$4.0B β€’ 2024: ~$4.9B β€’ 2025: ~$6.9B The 2025–26 jump came from their acquisitions ==> Mr. Cooper/Redfin From the TA perspective: Weekly chart πŸ‘‡ The 2024–26 advance already completed a 5 wave impulses that was the Large Cycle Wave I. Now we are in the larger correction: A-B-C for Large Cycle Wave II β€’ A was the first drop off the Wave 5 high β€’ B was the bounce β€’ C is in progress ⏳ If we loose the 200MA ==> one more leg down for extended C and honestly Large Cycle Wave I lasted around 24 months so I don’t think this 7 months correction is enough. I don’t see a reversal before next earnings or Q1 2027. Targets : - 78.6% retracement ==> $10.90 - 88.6% retracement ==> $9.30 After that large correction ends you know what is coming ===> Large Cycle Wave III with all The fondamentals in place to have a huge move πŸš€πŸš€πŸš€ Targets if we end at $10.90 $35-$45 Extended $50+ That will worth all the wait πŸ˜‰ Who know what I think about great company under the weekly 200MA = BUY OPPORTUNITY. $UWMC $PFSI $COOP $HOUS $OPEN $LEN $DHI #RKT #RocketMortgage #Housing #Mortgage #Redfin
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