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Parker Washington o 59.5 Rec Yards ✅
❤️ if you tailed!!!
NFL 🏈 Lock #1 (Oct. 18th)
Parker Washington o 59.5 Receiving Yards
(-125 FD)
❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING
Washington is averaging 70.4 receiving yards a game, with a 22-352-4 line on 35 targets, and he’s cleared 59.5 in three of five games. He went for 83 and 98 to open the year, then exploded for 124 yards and two touchdowns on 9 targets against the Eagles last week, a career high. That included a 51-yard score and the game-winning one-handed catch on fourth down. He’s also had success against this opponent, with 6 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown against Houston last season.
Houston’s defense hasn’t been what anyone expected. Through four weeks, the Texans were allowing 260 passing yards a game and a 102.9 passer rating. Lawrence is throwing well too, with 331 yards last week, and Washington is his top option on downfield throws.
The concern is consistency, after a 1-catch, 7-yard game at Cincinnati two weeks ago. But the volume came right back, and Jacksonville coaches are reportedly reluctant to take him off the field. He leads the team with 22 catches and draws the most targets when the Jaguars need a big play. Against a Texans defense allowing 260 passing yards a game, 60+ yards is a number I’m comfortable backing.
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TD 🏈 Lock #1 (Oct. 18th)
Christian Watson o 0.5 TD
(+120 FD)
❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING
Watson has scored in four of five games this season, with six touchdowns, which is half of Green Bay's offensive touchdowns. He's coming off 6 catches for 143 yards and two scores against Chicago, both on deep balls from 42 and 53 yards out. He's averaging 18.2 yards per catch, so he doesn't need a red zone target to score. One clean release can do it from anywhere on the field.
Dallas is a good matchup for that. The Cowboys allow 227 passing yards per game, 21st in the league, and have given up 10 passing touchdowns, 25th. They're also allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers. Their pass rush ranked 30th in pass rush win rate a couple of weeks ago, so Love should get time to let deep routes develop. Watson also has a history against Dallas, catching three touchdowns, including scores of 58 and 39 yards, against them as a rookie.
Watson has no injury designation, and Love just threw for 367 yards in a blowout win. The concern is that Green Bay spreads the ball around, and Watson's only miss came two weeks ago at Tampa. But he's drawing eight targets a game and leads the team in receiving yards, and in prime time against a struggling secondary, the deep shots should come early. A touchdown is a very attainable projection.
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NFL 🏈 Lock #3 (Oct. 18th)
Derrick Henry o 89.5 Rushing Yards
(-114 FD)
70 PERCENT HIT RATE 💎
❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING
Henry just ran for 102 yards on 24 carries against the best run defense in football. Atlanta came into that game allowing a league-low 48.3 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry, and he still topped 100 for the second time this season, after his 144-yard opener. He’s had at least 23 carries in four of five games, averaging 22.6 a game, and he’s tied for the league lead with seven rushing touchdowns. He also has more 200-yard rushing games than anyone in NFL history.
Cleveland is a much easier draw than Atlanta, ranking around league average in rushing yards allowed. Volume should be even heavier this week. Lamar Jackson is dealing with a sprained ankle, so whether he’s limited or Tyler Huntley starts, the Ravens will lean on Henry. They did the same thing in Week 5, riding him to an overtime win.
The concern is that his yardage has been inconsistent, with three games under this number in between the two 100-yard games. But last week showed that heavy volume beats a tough matchup, and Baltimore is a road favorite that should be playing with a lead. On 23-plus carries against a league-average run defense, he needs only 3.9 yards a carry.
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