According to the Financial Times, the US ambassador to the EU has threatened severe economic consequences if Europe gives preference to its own satellite communications companies. At the same time, the US administration is restricting Starlink and Starshield services in Ukraine, even though European countries are paying for some of these services. It's a remarkably consistent policy: make your allies dependent on American technology, then threaten them economically when they try to reduce that dependence. The EU is already in a very difficult position. Its economy is struggling, and the Russian military threat is becoming increasingly real, with Russian drone attacks now reaching EU territorial waters. And instead of helping its European allies become stronger, Washington is threatening them for trying to become less dependent on it.

AI predictions for next 6-9 months -> Anthropic/ OAI fail to ban OSS in the US -> Anthropic/ OAI continue to innovate product but stall on fundamental tech breakthroughs -> SOTA Gemini 4 launches at 10x lower cost -> Elon open sources Grok -> Anthropic/ OAI ARR growth stalls as enterprises move from tokenmaxxing to rational token consumption/ OSS -> slow realization in public markets that AI may not replace human labor in next 1-3 years/ has not had a fundamental tech breakthrough in over a year/ lacks ROI/ AI hyper and lab spend not durable -> moonboy VCs/ hedge funds/ softbank continue to fund Anthropic/ OAI equity raises in private markets as public markets for them are now fully closed -> CXMT, YMTC announce capacity expansions significantly above market expectations -> hypers deliver good q326 results on first look but fail to show meaningful AI ROI, guide to "significant capex expansion in fy27" -> broad realization in public markets the AI dream we got sold on is not anywhere close to realization -> 10yr hits >5% -> hyper bonds reprice >10%, CDS hit 3x current levels, and AI credit market dries up as market realizes GPU ABF was not a good idea -> hyper equities reprice 30-50% lower -> ORCL falls below $30 as rumors of bailout make the round -> market realizes memory is cyclical and LTAs won't hold -> 50% of korean traders get wiped within a week -> hypers cut fy27 capex -> semis reprice >80% lower -> fed cuts >150bps to avoid recession