@_DomDavi
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ad tech, finance, mobile gaming, food, wellness, arts, sports, dogs, etc.
San Diego, CA
Joined January 2015
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Oh yeah, re: $APP SEC probe comment.
You know why they didn’t make a big deal about it being closed out?
Because it wasn’t a big deal.
Companies get looked at all the time - it’s literally a function of the SEC.
Just because some sloppy doofus went out of her way to comment that there was a probe, doesn’t mean it has merit and needs to be addressed. If anything, harping on it gives it weight - like they had allegations to beat, which they didn’t.
It was treated exactly as it was - a routine part of running a massive publicly traded company.
Definitely not an IR or management blunder - get a fucking grip.
$APP missed expectations by 1%.
Let’s unpack that:
1) look at the size of revenue growth YoY, QoQ. What other company is doing those revenues in a similar sector? The company didn’t go from $1M to $2M - we’re talking billions.
2) Q2 is wonky. Tax season, start of summer.
3) We had the biggest global sporting event being hosted here in North America (World Cup). People that don’t even know what an offsides is were paying vast sums of money to go to games. That’s time away from games/ apps.
4) Look at the everything going on globally. AI shift, Layoffs, wars, etc. - people are watching their spending.
All that and the company still GREW at insane revenue levels. Outlook looks good but it’s reasonable/ tapered.
There is probably a lot more I’m missing here - there are more qualified people to speak on those.
Measuring/grading $APP without this stuff in mind gives you a skewed view of the ecosystem the company operates within and you miscontextualize (not a word but whatever) how impressive the business truly is.
Let the experts that built the behemoth do their thing, check back in a few quarters/ years.
Nice to see Digital Turbine ($APPS) up ~240% in the last 3 months.
I haven’t dug into their earnings reports, but anecdotally it makes sense. Their publisher revenues are growing quickly.
The rising ride really is lifting all ships.
I have a silly ritual that I’ve been following since $APP went public.
Every night after they report earnings I have BBQ for dinner.
If the market responds well, the BBQ is celebratory.
If the market doesn’t respond well, at least I hedged my happiness with some good food.
Cheers to anyone with skin the game for tomorrow.
NFA - DYOR before getting BBQ
Guys, we’ve been over this - $APP moves disproportionately to the market. All of ad tech took a beating today (check $U, $APPS, $EVC, for a small snapshot). It’s a bad day all around , lots of uncertainty due to global events - just look at $NVDA and the other chip companies. Have a look at $VGT/ $VTI .
The $APP fundamentals haven’t changed. Company is doing great. Ecom is a beast. Stay 10 toes down, it’s business as usual.
X has a way of making things happen so here it goes....
I'm offering a $500 reward to the first person who can connect me with a real person on the Google Adsense team which leads to my account getting approved.
I'll comment in the thread when this has been closed out.
As a shareholder, I have mixed feelings about the $APP pop yesterday.
Apparently, the pop was due to Edgewater Research firm talking about how $META doesn't have immediate plans to bid on non-IDFA inventory.
The way I see it, if a stock moves this much just by news on what another company may or may not do takes away from the achievements and trajectory of $APP in its own right.
$APP put up absolutely insane, basically unheard of, numbers for Q1 2026 and the stock barely moved.
Obviously, I'm happy to see any movement and recognition of the stock, but it feels off that the market gives so much credence to "headwinds" that haven't slowed down business at all.
Regardless, I'll take the positive market response.
Is the entire market literally just running on vibes right now?
investopedia.com/terms/a/ani…
I just finished Adam's interview with @davidsenra - really cool insight into a lot of the lesser-known backstory of $APP.
I smiled ear to ear listening Adam talk about @rfvivas. The security footage of Raf at the PA office is awesome. Raf is easily top 3 most influential people of my career. Raf and @SeanWebster13 taught me more during my time at AppLovin than most people could learn in a lifetime.
Awesome interview @davidsenra.
youtube.com/watch?v=SCBFXL_S…
I've known Adam since early 2014, and without a doubt, this is the best public representation of how he thinks and operates.
Yes, I'm an $APP shareholder and a fan of Adam personally, but I think anyone running a business in today's tech landscape can learn a lot from him as a leader.
nice interview @HarryStebbings
youtube.com/watch?v=dlPCz8Jw…
Ok I am coming around to the idea that an $APP & $U deal might actually make sense.
No clue if it’s on the table, but here’s why I like it:
1) $U mediation share is not negligible. AppLovin doesn’t bid into LevelPlay (Unity’s mediation product). More inventory as a bidder is always welcome.
2) $U engine business is sizable SAAS rev. It’s a good addition to $APP (Adjust, etc.)
3) $APP is good at monetizing content, $U is good at making tools for devs to create it.
4) I did (with the help of AI) a deep tech dive into the “Unity Developer Data Framework” over the weekend. I don’t believe it’s a silver bullet, but I believe there is value there.
It’s a good holistic offering to devs.
There are a few other things, such as $U leadership being able to invest more time/resources into AI improvements for the engine (another area $APP is very strong in).
The market on the news alone would probably rally enough to more than offset the cost, so I think it makes sense.
I don’t own any $U at the time of this post, but i might pick some up tomorrow. Too many coincidences and things moving for there not to be something cooking somewhere. If not with $APP, but maybe PE or someone else.
$U acquisition incoming? Good for them. Company is actually quite good when you look at the uphill battle they have from that string of bad decisions made by former leadership.
Dom Davies retweeted
imagine you’re Travis Kalanick
you built Uber from nothing into a $70 billion company and changed how every city on earth moves
then in the worst three weeks of your life, family tragedies hit, and five of your investors hand you a letter demanding you resign
so you step down
the board replaces you, your successor and board sell off the self driving division you created, the thing you believed was Uber’s entire future
gone
$4 billion to Aurora
the mainstream media tries to write your obituary: toxic culture, bad leadership, and a cautionary tale
silicon valley moves on
as they always do
but you don’t
you don’t really forget
you go quiet, completely quiet
you take $150 million and buy a ghost kitchen company called CloudKitchens
you raise over a billion dollars, hit a $15 billion valuation, build a company with thousands of employees
and nobody even knows the name
eight years in stealth, employees aren’t even allowed to put your company on their LinkedIn
then today you rename the company Atoms, and it’s not a kitchen company anymore
it’s a robotics company
1. food
2. mining
3. transport
your first move?
acquiring Pronto
the autonomous vehicle startup
built by Anthony Levandowski, the same engineer you originally swooped away from Google to build Uber’s self driving program
oh and he went on to deploy 100+ autonomous trucks for one of the largest materials companies on earth
now he’s coming back to work with you
and the reports say Uber itself
the same company that pushed you out, is now backing you to go after self driving harder than Waymo
the guy they removed is the guy they end up needing
poetic justice
your framework aka everything in civilization is mined or grown, manufactured and moved
you call it the golden age
your manifesto ends with three words:
“I never left”
eight years of silence
then this
but here’s what people keep getting wrong about your situation
everyone wants to call it a comeback or a revenge story
it’s neither
you just went quiet and built for eight years while everyone who wrote you off had stopped paying attention
that’s not revenge, that’s just what true builder obsession looks like
most founders would’ve stayed bitter
most would’ve written a book and done a podcast tour, most would’ve taken the $2.5 billion in shares and disappeared off to a beach or Epstein’s island
you didn’t do any of that
you just kept building
and now the same people who pushed you out need you again
so whether you love him or hate him
the most dangerous person in any room is the one who goes quiet yet never stops building
karma is real
welcome back Travis
Atoms.
Http://atoms.co/vision
Still buzzing about the 1.3% total platform conversion rate Adam mentioned during the $APP/ Morgan Stanley call yesterday… ad networks only make money when a conversion occurs, their network is so large that 1.3% of ads converting is enough to offset the losses of the 98.7% and still make their make the margins they do.
Am I the only one who is absolutely floored by how insane that is? Think about how fucking massive the platform/ opportunity actually is to see as much revenue as they do and be as dominant in the ecosystem as they are with a 1.3% total platform conversion rate. Every small win there is so needle moving when you look at it through that lense.
New AI creatives at scale should move the needle considerably, that’s a different post tho. Couple that with whatever is going on behind the scenes with AXON and it’s basically game over. I can’t see how with their trajectory, new initiatives, new vertices it doesn’t become the biggest ad platform in the world.
As a publisher, I’ll get higher eCPMs for my inventory. As an advertiser, it’ll get more and more effective to buy on the platform. The whole ecosystem benefits, the pie gets bigger.
Assuming TAM doesn’t grow and content creation stays the same (unlikely, but fine for illustrative purpose), a few compounding wins on the platform will grow rev significantly QoQ.
More realistically, TAM does grow, those compounding wins from a $ and % standpoint become even more significant.
Fingers crossed for more data points like this.
seekingalpha.com/article/487…
Transcript from here
I haven’t seen anyone reporting on the view time of their ads on $META vs $APP. I spot checked a few Meta campaigns for gaming advs - avg was about 4 seconds. Some creatives went up to 7 and one outlier (small volume in the same account was 11 - algo doesn’t like this one).
Assuming every user seeing an APP ad closes the second they are able to, that’s still 10 seconds minimum. People usually watch them longer tho if the creative is good and the targeting is relevant, thats just interstitials tho. Rewarded video, the highest converting, are usually 30 seconds minimum view time.
1) How can anyone think an ad with that much kind of view time isn’t creating intention? Intention = value.
2) With those minimums in mind, ecom advs should spend more time on creatives to maximize engagement at the opportunity.
I recall seeing a stat about AppLovin ads avging 30 seconds watch time. I’ll post in comments if I can find it.
+ @oliviaakory I thought of your posts too. Curious if you’ve seen anything similar re: meta view time.