Horse racing is one of the most complex tests of decision-making under uncertainty. It’s not just about picking winners. It’s about being smart enough to see the edge, humble enough to doubt it, disciplined enough to size it, and cold enough to walk away when the price is wrong.

GL Jedi!

Humans +1 kedglobal.com/artificial-int…

Chat soon guru!

Anyone here know Portnoy well enough to ask him directly and actually get an answer? Genuinely curious—looks to me like a case of him overbetting, but I’m not certain.

CRW Poker: Takeout vs. Positional Advantage Tracks love to hype Pick 5 takeout reductions, as if shaving a few points off suddenly makes these pools beatable for the average player. But let’s be honest—those marginal EV gains mean very little when you’re still battling brutal variance, a short bankroll, and inconsistent discipline. Instead, tracks should be steering players toward the win pool—you know, the one where odds are actually displayed on-screen and players can make somewhat informed decisions. Moves like those by NYRA and Del Mar are a welcome shift—a move away from the standard model of feeding customers into the Pick 5 CRW slaughterhouse and calling it a promotion. Because here’s the reality: your main opponent in today’s pools isn’t the guy next to you—it’s the CRWs. These are house-backed players with massive scale, live data feeds, and lightning-fast algorithms. They act last and fire thousands of optimized bets in milliseconds. In that light, your so-called “low takeout” looks like a distraction. The Pick 5 is basically the poker equivalent of sitting in a 5/10 mixed game with a $1,000 bankroll and 12% rake, facing Phil Ivey—who also happens to have the button every single hand. Can you beat him? Sure, if you run hotter than the sun and cash out early. But realistically? Not a chance. Now contrast that with the win pool: it’s more like playing 1/2 Hold’em with 15% rake against Ivey, but you have the button every hand. It’s still tough, but now you actually have a shot. You can compete, grind, enjoy the game, and avoid going broke after three races. Any experienced poker player will tell you: position matters more than your hand (handicapping) or your bet size (wagering). And there’s a reason even the best pros can’t beat a GTO bot. CRWs are the bots. But when you give the human the button every hand, suddenly it’s a game again. Yes, the industry needs CRWs—they’re essentially house players on massive rakeback, and they provide valuable liquidity, especially on slower weekday cards and less popular tracks. But that doesn’t mean we should hand them both the rebate and the positional edge. Personally, I’ll take position over a modest rebate any day.

Horse Racing Twitter acting like cutting off CRWs in the win pool is meaningless completely misses the point. This is the only pool most recreational players can actually beat. Why fight to give CRWs less edge in exotics when they already own those pools? Let the sharks eat each other—protect the part of the game that’s still winnable. You want to die on the hill of ‘fairer’ exotics? Be my guest. Most players are broke by Leg 3. The win pool is where recreational players still have hope.

Heads up, players — a valuable opportunity just dropped. NYRA has sweetened today’s contest by adding a $10,000 BCBC seat to the prize pool. This creates a strong overlay and a rare edge for players. If you’ve got $300 and a good opinion, today’s the day to step in.

Handicapping vs. Betting Horseplayer X: Remember that longshot I was telling you about in the 8th race? Did you watch the race?! I loved that 12-1 winner. I watched the replay of his last race three times last night and spotted something that wasn't in the comment lines. The horse cleared and won by 5 lengths today. The breeding numbers I've been putting together also liked the 20-1 first-time starter on pedigree. It ran 2nd! Chalk dead last! Check out our group thread. I told you all last night that this was my play of the day! Boom! Friend at Track: Checks results … 12-1 is on top, 20-1 in second, 4-1 second choice in 3rd, odds-on chalk ran dead last. Huge payouts. Liquid 6-figure pools. Apparently, Super Hi-5 carryover too. “Wow, nice capping! How much did you win?!” Horseplayer X: Long pause … “Ummm, well I messed up my betting… I wanted to bet my horse to win but to enhance my payoff and really get value, I played a bunch of exotics instead. For half of my money, I played an exacta box with the 12-1 and the chalk. I know, I know, I hated that chalk and man did it not run today… but I was afraid I was missing something when the tip sheet I’ve been using with success lately said the chalk only lost the previous race because of the troubled start. The chalk was their “diamond lock of the day.” I mean, the tip sheet was 3 for 3 on diamond plays yesterday! I had to hedge myself just in case I was wrong. Remember how I mapped out the race perfectly last night to you and the crew? I knew that 20-1 was gonna fill out the exacta or tri. I have the best breeding stats from my extensive study on it this year and found a way to create a score to properly rank my horses on breeding. My numbers said the 20-1 was the best-bred horse there, a great price for a promising first-time starter with some pedigree. I didn’t think the horse could win, but the horse had a great shot at 2nd or 3rd since the trainer uses the first race for all his promising horses for conditioning and experience rather than to win. Plus the public hasn’t picked up on this yet as shown by my ROI stats. I hit the tri though for 50 cents but sadly I still lost money as I used the 12-1, 20-1, and chalk on top and then used ALL in 2nd and 3rd. I should’ve just keyed the 20-1 in 2nd and 3rd and threw out the chalk. Well, at least I had $20 to place and show on the 20-1 that finished 2nd! Plus, I bet $200 to show on the 12-1 winner, just in case, you know what I mean?! It paid pretty well I thought. I knew that 12-1 was gonna win. I knew that 20-1 would probably fill out 2nd or 3rd. And that fake chalk, I knew the horse was overrated. I texted the group chain this morning how confident I was! It ran exactly as I predicted! It just sucks because I’ve been following this 12-1 winner all year waiting for this spot and I have nothing really to show for it. It’s been a frustrating day. I’m gonna bet what I have left on the pick 6. It’s only a 20-cent minimum so I can cover all the horses that have a shot and with millions in the pool, I can still crush it for the day and make up for all the missed opportunity today. Later that night on the bus ride home … I wish I didn’t blow half my money betting all those earlier races. I wish I played my opinion and bet most to win on the 12-1, and double-keyed the 12-1 on top and the 20-1 in 2nd and 3rd with all others except the chalk in exotics. I can’t believe my horse got DQ-ed in the last or I would’ve broken even for the day as the Rainbow 6 was so obvious and paid $369.80 to cover my losses with enough left to take a cab home. I have a great opinion tomorrow and I can’t wait to tell you about it when I get home. I blew my bankroll for the week. Maybe you could lend me $200 for tomorrow? I’m gonna make it back and more! Darn, I blew it today! I was so right though!”

Being Right vs. Making Money Many gamblers, especially those who often lose, frequently mix up the two. Some horseplayers are so infatuated with hitting a flashy ticket and proving to the world how brilliant they are that they ignore their dwindling bank accounts, which hint to them, “Hey, maybe it’s time to switch things up.” Professional gamblers play for profit. Amateur gamblers play for ego. If you’re aiming for a big payout on long shots in every race when basic handicapping indicates a favorite, you are simply a poor handicapper who can’t discern when to back and when to fade the chalk. My ex-boss, who made ten figures of profit running a hedge fund—arguably gambling on steroids—once told me something I will never forget: “Trading is not like figure skating. You are not judged by the degree of difficulty but solely on how much profit you return.” Let that sink in for a bit... Play for profit, not for ego. Don’t fall into the trap of trying to be right; go for the money instead. It’s like deciding to do a quad axel when you only need a triple axel to win a figure skating contest. Why take on additional risk for no benefit?

If you have $300 and an opinion on the Belmont Derby card this Saturday, this is a must play if you like money.

OG level risk management

Paul and Denny will be dropping some golden nuggets of info while I’ll likely be dropping some F-bombs at some point (over/under anyone?)

RIP the GOAT quant. simonsfoundation.org/2024/05…

Simply incredible the advances in computer vision. The next generation of quantitative sports modeling looks bright.

Machine learning is the same thing when you think about it—a fancy way of connecting the dots.

Horse betting contest players can relate to this dilemma