Las Vegas sports betting pro | Contrarian + model NFL handicapper | Circa Millions top 1% | Free edges daily, premium on Winible | 2026 NFL: 14-4

Joined August 2021
World Series Betting Insights, Model Thread 🧡 Over/Under is low Game 1 at 6.5 runs @CircaSports How often in World Series do they score less than 6.5 runs? Last 10 World Series (2016–2025): 61 games total. Games with ≀6 combined runs (i.e., under a 6.5 total) hit 24/61 β‰ˆ 39%. Exact breakdown by series: 2016 (4/7), 2017 (3/7), 2018 (3/5), 2019 (1/7), 2020 (2/6), 2021 (2/6), 2022 (3/6), 2023 (2/5), 2024 (2/5), 2025 (2/7). High-scoring outliers (25, 18, multiple 15s) pull the average up, but low-scoring games are commonβ€”especially when elite starters dominate Tonight’s Game 1 Matchup (Rays @ Brewers, 8 ET, American Family Field): Pitching: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL, 16-5, 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 252 K in 174.2 IP) vs. Nick Martinez (TB, 15-6, 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). Misiorowski is the presumed NL Cy Young winnerβ€”elite velocity (100+ mph four-seam), swing-and-miss stuff, and on long rest after the Brewers swept the Dodgers. Martinez is a solid, low-walk control arm (AL-best 1.3 BB/9) who has pitched well on the road this postseason, but he is not in Misiorowski’s class. #worldseries #thisismycrew #raysup @RaysBaseball
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Latest NFL betting data from Las Vegas is in, it may SHOCK you! Public is on @Browns & @Giants Most bet teams to cover 🎟️ 1. Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 2. San Francisco 49ers -2.5 3. New York Giants +10 4. Cleveland Browns -2 5. Minnesota Vikings -6.5 Most bet totals 🎟️ 1. Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Over 53.5 2. Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans Under 37 3. Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints Over 44 4. Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals Under 43.5 5. Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings Under 41.5 from data is most surprising to you? πŸ‘‡ Data per @BetMGM #bigblue #DawgPound
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Replying to @ESPNInsights
Hang it in rafters: Started 1-0 in 2026
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Winners πŸ’° Monster Night! 3-0 winners for subscribers: App State +12.5 πŸ’° Under 76ers vs Cavs πŸ’° Bears moneyline πŸ’° Congrats all who won money w me! $199/month or $17/play @Winible , come join winning team! #dabears #nepats
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Replying to @UnderdogNFL
Vikings offense when healthy:
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Replying to @BenVerlander
so excited to watch Brewers
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Vegas is Wrong on this line! We can profit from Vegas sports books mistake! JMU at Appalachian State Thread 🧡 Premium Play $17 @Winible (Link in bio) Context and Recent Form JMU (7-0, 4-0 Sun Belt) is one of the last undefeated teams in FBS and has been efficient on both sides of the ball. The Dukes are averaging roughly 42.9 points and 460+ yards per game, with a strong ground game led by George Pettaway (multiple recent 100-yard efforts and high yards-per-carry). Their defense has allowed only about 16 points per game. They enter on a short week after a 49-22 home win over Georgia State and are 6-1 ATS overall. App State (4-2, 1-1) is coming off a 35-32 comeback road win at Coastal Carolina. The Mountaineers have played several one-score games. Their offense has been inconsistent in part because of weather. Two of their last three home games (vs. Charlotte and vs. Old Dominion) involved significant weather disruptions: a lengthy lightning delay that pushed the Charlotte game into the early morning, and a monsoon from Hurricane Isaias against ODU that produced a 10-3 defensive slog. Those games can reasonably be discounted when evaluating the offense’s baseline capability. The win at Coastal in better conditions looked more like the version of the offense that can compete. #godukes @JMUFootball
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